We occasionally voice contrarian views on the market or the economy. Investors love to think that they’re bucking the conventional logic, but in truth, contrarian strategies are not as successful as many people believe. Having issued that caveat, January has traditionally been a good month for contrarian trades.

As 2012 approaches, the negative sentiment toward the global economy has risen substantially. The EU sovereign-debt crisis, the potential for a new recession in the US, a hard landing for China’s property sector and economy and a laundry list of related issues have been at the forefront of the debate among investors.

Investors are almost united in their view that a “vicious circle” is forming, with its epicenter located in Europe. They believe this circle will gradually expand to engulf the rest of the world and depress the global economy.

We have some sympathy for this view. The EU economy faces structural problems of which the debt crisis is just the most visible symptom. American politicians seem unable to decide on a course of action that will improve the country’s fiscal position. It’s perfectly logical to assume that the so-called vicious circle is beginning to form.

At the same time, we find it difficult to simply follow the herd.

For better or for worse, we have a natural aversion to the conventional logic. Today’s widespread negativity brings to mind ungrounded euphoria of the dot-com boom of 2000. At that time, a herd mentality prevailed and many investors snatched up shares of technology companies regardless of their valuation or, more important, the companies’ flawed business models. We all know how that story ended.

The US economic recovery began in mid-2009 and has now entered its third year. Although the recovery has been anemic compared to other post-war recoveries, the US economy has grown by an average of 2.4 percent for the past 27 months. Not a bad showing, considering the circumstances.

It’s true that the US Federal Reserve’s policies have helped spur growth, and the economy has been growing from depressed levels. Nevertheless, the economy has been moving in the right direction. A vigorous tightening of monetary policy by the Fed could make things more difficult, but we believe the Fed will not embark on such a campaign before it is certain that unemployment and some critical economic sectors (e.g. housing) have started to turn around.

Many politicians have derided the Fed as unnecessary and declared chairman Ben Bernanke ignorant at best. It can be politically expedient to criticize policymakers, but at the end of the day Bernanke still controls the Federal Open Market Committee. His word is gospel. Ignore the hawkish views expressed by some committee members; a rate hike isn’t in the cards.

That being said, our best contrarian call is for a rally in the material sector in 2012. The Global Investment Strategist Metals and Mining Portfolio holds several stocks that are poised for a surprising turnaround in 2012. Investors should consider copper and gold producer Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX), diversified miner Xstrata (London: XTA, OTC: XSRAY) and super major miner BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP).