Will Buffett Bet More on Canadian Energy?

The Canadian energy sector just got yet another vote of confidence from the world’s most famous investor. Last August, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK-B) disclosed that it held nearly 17.8 million shares of Canadian energy giant Suncor Energy Inc’s (NYSE: SU, TSX: SU) stock, a position which was then valued at roughly USD500 million.

Berkshire subsequently pared its holdings in Suncor by about 5 million shares during the fourth quarter, as the stock ascended to a two-year high. Buffett still holds 13 million shares of Suncor, worth about USD543.7 million, making it the 47th largest position in Berkshire’s portfolio of 70 securities.

More recently, in early May, Berkshire announced it would be acquiring Calgary-based electricity transmission company AltaLink for an estimated CAD3.2 billion from the Canadian engineering firm SNC-Lavalin Group Inc (TSX: SNC, OTC: SNCAF). The deal fetched a premium far beyond what most observers had anticipated, and it’s expected to close by the end of the year.

Clearly, Buffett continues to see value in Canada’s energy patch. And that makes sense, since the stocks in the country’s energy sector have lagged their peers in their neighbor to the south.

Although the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (SPTSEN) is up 23.1 percent year to date on a price basis and in local currency terms, well ahead of the S&P 500 Energy Index’s (S5ENRS) 9.1 percent gain, the story is quite different over the trailing three-year period. During that time, the S5ENRS nearly quadrupled the performance of the SPTSEN, with a gain of 32.6 percent versus 8.5 percent (both performances are reported in their respective local currencies).

And the decline in the exchange rate has helped make Canadian assets even more of a bargain. The Canadian dollar currently trades near USD0.921, down about 13.2 percent from this cycle’s high in mid-2011.

Berkshire’s aforementioned moves could be just the beginning of its involvement in Canada’s energy sector. Speaking before the Edison Electric Institute’s annual convention earlier this week, Buffett observed that Berkshire had already poured billions of dollars in retained earnings and several billion more in equity into investments in North American energy. According to Bloomberg News, he then declared, “And we’re going to keep doing that as far as the eye can see.”

One of Berkshire’s biggest initiatives is in the realm of renewable energy, enticed in part by US tax incentives for such projects. Berkshire has already committed USD15 billion to such projects and could be poised to invest another USD15 billion. Buffett also plans to make investments in oil and gas reserves and pipelines.

One of the reasons the Canadian energy sector could benefit from Berkshire’s opportunistic deployment of capital is because Buffett believes the US shouldn’t shun friendly trading partners, particularly when energy is ultimately a finite resource and the alternative is dealing with mostly despotic regimes overseas.

Indeed, Buffett supports the approval of TransCanada Corp’s (NYSE: TRP, TSX: TRP) Keystone XL pipeline, which would transport Canadian unconventional crude to Gulf Coast refineries.

“I’m very happy Canada has tremendous reserves,” he said, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. “I’d rather be in our hemisphere than in a hemisphere with an unfriendly government. I’m for the pipeline. I have no problem with that at all.”

However, he  also noted, “We’ve got problems with carbon and we have to address them … The idea that you would take a wonderful, friendly country that one way or another is going to sell the oil it develops and in effect, snub them, I don’t think it makes any sense.”

Of course, Berkshire’s holding in Suncor is dwarfed by its USD4.2 billion position in Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM). But that could always change.

And Buffett’s foray into Canada may not occur in the form of equity investments, but rather in outright purchases of whole companies or major operating assets. After all, Berkshire’s sheer size means that the equity investments that helped build the company into what it is today are no longer enough to move the needle.