The Great Global Stock Market Rethink

If you’ve been an investor long enough you know the market can behave in maddeningly bizarre ways. Now is one of those times.

For example, it’s strange oil prices would be so low while most economists forecast global growth. Also bizarre: European stock markets rally on news of the GOP winning control of Congress. And why would U.S. stock markets rally on news of European and Japanese stimulus, particularly given how small these programs are as compared to the U.S. stimulus?

What I think is contorting global markets is that in the absence of unprecedented U.S. stimulus that supported them, investors are re-pricing, rethinking and reevaluating just about everything. It’s what I call the Great Global Stock Market Rethink. This will mean choppy markets (and require tough stomachs), but also potential new opportunities.

Here I review major market trends and how Global Income Edge is thinking about them as opportunities.

Trend #1: Unbelievably Low Oil Prices

Everyone I know in the energy industry is trying to make sense of the recent fall in oil prices. Is it an oversupply, a fall in demand, or Saudi Arabia trying to knock out higher-cost competitors by flooding the market? I learned years ago that only fools bet on oil prices in the short term, and that oil and gas investments are for long-term investors who can stomach volatility.

Oil and gas investments are lumpy. The industry chases demand for years and inevitably oversupplies the market. Then prices drop and the industry cuts back. Then prices rise. How long this present retrenchment will take is anyone’s guess, though I believe that when global growth reasserts itself we will see a major shift to higher oil prices.

How to Rethink Oil

The fall in oil prices will provide the equivalent of a tax cut for consumers and increase purchasing power. Low oil prices will improve margins in Global Income Edge’s portfolio companies as they already have pricing power and are globally diversified. But low oil prices open up the opportunity for consumer stocks. And low oil prices could improve the fortunes of shipping companies that have been struggling as one of the industry’s major costs, oil, is being cut. The question is will an increased demand for shipping follow increased consumer spending around the world on products and services. We’ll be watching this trend closely.

Trend #2: The Republican Control of Congress

Why would European stock markets rally on news of the GOP winning control of Congress? Maybe Europeans feel a kinship with Republican House Speaker John Boehner’s because like many Europeans he appreciates smoking, and drinking good red wine. More likely they think GOP influence might translate into improved trade agreements as Republicans have signaled they will move to fast track various trade deals next year that have been stalled. While many of these agreements are focused on opening markets for U.S. firms in various Asian countries, they will also benefit trade between all of America and major trade partners.

How to Rethink Congress

The GOP control of Congress is going to benefit multinationals, including many of the firms that are in the Global Income Edge portfolio. The lowering of trade barriers means more access to growth markets and greater earnings. The other opportunity is infrastructure. The GOP has signaled that it’s going to support greater infrastructure spending in the U.S.

As we have noted in previous reports, crumbling infrastructure in developed countries and a surge of infrastructure building in developing economies will mean 4% annual growth on infrastructure investment “well into the second half of this decade, pushing total investment to $4 trillion,” according to a Bain & Company report. We are looking for suitable investments in this area, and will be watching for which sectors could benefit most by stronger trade.

Trend #3: European and Japanese Stimulus

Last week we wrote that the European market is oversold and that we are optimistic about a recovery given the European Central Bank has unveiled plans to bolster companies’ and households’ access to financing. Also, we’re encouraged by a U.S. Federal Reserve style stimulus program that will pump as much as $1.26 trillion into Europe.

Then last week, the Bank of Japan raised its annual target for monetary expansion to $724 billion from as much as $610 billion. Both of these have sent stocks around the world, including in the U.S., soaring.

We believe the stimulus could be a boon and will likely drive European and Japanese corporate earnings and stock prices higher.

How to Rethink Stimulus

The U.S. economy has had a number of positive developments recently, such as the recent third-quarter growth in GDP of 3.5% and an improving labor market. But there is a realization that the recovery is at risk if the rest of the world does not also grow, particularly because 40% of S&P 500 companies have more than 40% of their earning overseas. That’s why efforts to revive and sustain America’s major trade partners will ultimately be good for America.

These developments are clearly an opportunity to focus on U.S. firms doing business in Europe and Japan, as well as European and Japanese firms doing business in the U.S.

In the coming issues of Global Income Edge, and our e-letter, Income Without Borders, we’ll be outlining investments that stand to benefit from these new trends.