The Canadian Economy Delivers an Upside Surprise

With the collapse in crude oil prices, it’s easy for U.S. investors fixated on Canada’s resource story to forget that our neighbor to the north offers more than just commodities.

Indeed, while crude oil accounted for 16.9% of Canada’s merchandise exports in 2013, total exports of goods and services were about 30% of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP).

And Canada’s latest GDP numbers underscore that point, at least to some extent. According to Statistics Canada (StatCan), the country’s GDP grew 0.3% month over month in October, blowing past analyst expectations by a significant two-tenths of a percentage point.

That happened during a month in which North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by almost 12%. Although the selloff would further accelerate thereafter, by the end of October WTI had already fallen nearly 25% from its high in late June.

Interestingly, the energy sector was one of two areas that drove October’s result. Output from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction rose 1.2% that month, a second consecutive monthly increase, while growth over the trailing year was up by 5.3%, the second-strongest performance during that time period.

StatCan reported that after posting a 3.6% increase in September, oil and gas extraction expanded 1.5% in October. The increase was led by non-conventional oil production, while natural gas production was down.

It’s hard to imagine that these numbers persisted through November, as crude prices crashed below breakeven thresholds for a number of projects, but it does show that producers were more resilient than might otherwise be expected.

And it also suggests that, to a point, some energy companies will ramp up production volumes in an effort to offset lower prices. Since then, of course, a number of oil and gas producers have announced dramatic cuts to next year’s spending.

Given that we’re currently in the bust phase of oil’s notorious boom-and-bust cycle, it’s heartening to learn that manufacturing output was the single biggest factor in October’s upside surprise.

Manufacturing output grew 0.7%, following September’s rise of 0.8%. On a trailing-year basis, sector output is up by 3.2%, the second-strongest performance during that period among goods-producing industries.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is hoping for a sustained turnaround in the beleaguered sector, particularly among exporters, to help the country’s economy shift from its dependence on debt-burdened consumers.

The lower exchange rate will certainly help. The Canadian dollar currently trades near USD0.86, down from a high of USD1.06 in mid-2011. Analysts expect it to remain near this level through 2016 before a moderate rebound commences.

Overall, October’s strong GDP growth suggests that the fourth quarter could also surprise to the upside. Economists with CIBC believe GDP growth could end up tracking closer to 3%, which would be sharply higher than private-sector economists’ consensus forecast of 2.5%.

“We’re encouraged that the economy is keeping its pace coming down the home stretch of 2014. A near-3% growth outlook for two consecutive quarters means that the Canadian economy is making meaningful headway in narrowing whatever’s left of remaining slack,” the economists said.

“But the real worries lie in what the collapse in crude means for next year,” they conceded.

For now, the economy is expected to expand by 2.5% in 2015, based on Bloomberg’s survey of institutional economists. That’s the minimum threshold the BoC previously identified as necessary to remove excess slack from the economy.

Although Canada’s economy will suffer at least some repercussions from the global commodities selloff, the bear market in crude and other key resources should be at least partially offset by a lower exchange rate and a resurgent U.S. economy.

As BoC Governor Stephen Poloz put it in his remarks during the recent press conference that accompanied the release of the central bank’s semiannual Financial System Review, “This shock [from oil’s decline] is especially complex: It is likely to boost global growth but to moderate growth and inflation in Canada, even though the effects should be tempered by exchange rate depreciation and stronger non-energy exports.”

Indeed, numerous economists have noted that falling prices at the gas pump will free up disposable income for U.S. consumers to spend in other areas, presumably including manufactured goods imported from Canada.

“Non-energy exports have been responding to stronger U.S. growth and exchange rate depreciation, investment spending appears to be picking up, and we have seen pockets of new job creation,” Poloz observed.

Still, as investors with substantial holdings in the energy space, it’s been difficult to countenance the gleeful reports in the media about gasoline selling for $1.99 per gallon. But we have holdings in a number of other areas as well, and when one cycle ends, as painful as that is, another begins.