A Canadian Spending Spree

Although Canada’s economy has taken a hit from crude oil’s collapse, the country’s consumers have once again demonstrated their resilience.

Moneris Solutions Corporation, one of North America’s largest payment processors, says Canadian consumer spending rose 5.8% year over year during the first quarter, with the pace of spending accelerating with each passing month.

This activity occurred despite the fact that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz famously characterized the economy’s first-quarter performance as “atrocious” in an interview with the Financial Times last month.

The central bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report says that the economy stalled during the first quarter, with estimates showing “essentially no growth” primarily due to the oil shock.

Crude’s steady decline last summer accelerated into an outright collapse during the fourth quarter. But even then, Canadians were still spending with relative abandon. Moneris reports that consumer spending rose 3.5% year over year during the fourth quarter.

Of course, the fourth-quarter performance is largely due to the holiday season. But what accounts for the sustained increase in consumer spending through that “atrocious” first quarter?

Perhaps Canadians have been seeking solace from the country’s economic doldrums. After all, shopping and eating are a great form of short-term therapy that’s easy to self-administer.

Indeed, on the shopping front some of the hottest areas included shoe stores (up 9.3%) and women’s accessories (up 7.3%). Meanwhile, spending on fast food and libations at the local pub increased by 10.9% and 7.8%, respectively.

Or perhaps Canadians’ financial strength is far greater than the scary headlines about their debt burdens might suggest–the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income hit 163.3% in the fourth quarter according to Statistics Canada (StatCan).

Naturally, a big part of the debt shouldered by the average Canadian is the mortgage on their home. And Canada’s housing boom, which has been further inflated by historically low interest rates, has pushed home prices to dizzying new heights in metropolitan areas such as Vancouver and Toronto.

The average single-family home in Vancouver now sells for more than CAD1.27 million, up 10.3% year over year, while the average detached home in Toronto sells for more than CAD1.04 million, up 15.9% from a year ago.

The resulting wealth effect has also spurred spending, particularly in the household category, which was up 7.2% overall, with the strongest growth in sub-categories such as window treatments and upholstery (up 11.3%) and glass, paint and wallpaper (up 12.9%).

Though Moneris’ data are certainly encouraging, they deviate from what StatCan reports, especially for the first quarter.

Moneris reported that consumer spending rose 5.1% and 5.5% year over year in January and February, respectively. At the same time, StatCan’s numbers show a much more modest increase for those months, with retail sales in January and February up just 1.3% and 2.5% year over year, respectively.

The key difference behind these two sets of data is the methodology employed to gather them. Moneris collects its data from actual sales volumes–the dollar values of credit and debit card transactions being processed by its merchants, which have more than 350,000 locations.

By contrast, StatCan’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey polls a sample of 10,000 retailers, and then makes various adjustments to the data based on seasonality and other factors.

Obviously, Moneris’ data are based on reality, while StatCan’s data are more of an extrapolation of reality. And after having recently been subjected to the household survey that’s used to produce the monthly U.S. employment report, my skepticism of government statistical reporting agencies has only deepened.

But even if Moneris’ numbers are a more accurate reflection of what’s happening at the consumer level in Canada, that doesn’t mean the economy doesn’t face significant challenges.

Economic growth is expected to slow to just 1.0% during the first quarter, with a moderate reacceleration through the end of the year. If the consensus forecast proves correct, then hopefully that means most of the pain from the oil shock was front-loaded.

In the meantime, consumer spending is one of the few bright spots in the country’s economy.

And thankfully, Canadians continue to manage their debt burdens responsibly. Delinquency rates among borrowers remain low, even in resource-rich Alberta, the province that’s suffered the brunt of crude’s crash.