Account Information

  • My Account

    Manage all your subscriptions, update your address, email preferences and change your password.

  • Help Center

    Get answers to common service questions, ask the analyst or contact our customer service department.

  • My Stock Talk Profile

    Update your stock talk name and/or picture.


Collect this extra money immediately!

Collect this extra money immediately!This unique income-boosting opportunity allows you to collect up to $1,003 a month in extra government cash. This plan is available to everyone over the age of 18. And because of the way the government views the money that comes from it, your current—or future—Social Security benefits won’t be affected. There’s still time to get your name on the next check run. I’ll show you how here.


Industry Sector Seasonality: Protect Yourself From the Summer Swoon

By Jim Fink on April 28, 2011

ETFs are extremely useful tools for individual investors looking to implement a top-down investment approach. Such an approach analyzes the industry sectors likely to benefit from prevailing market trends.

— Yiannis Mostrous, Global ETF Profits

One year ago almost to the day, I wrote an article entitled How to Pick Industry Sectors Based on the Business Cycle. The basic idea is that stocks representing different industry sectors perform differently depending on where we are in the business cycle:

Point in the Business Cycle

Best Performing Industry Sectors

Early Expansion

Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Middle Expansion

Energy, Basic Materials, Metals

Late Expansion

Consumer Staples


Utilities and Financials

The problem with this analytical approach is that it is extremely difficult to determine where we are in the business cycle. Easier said than done! Last year, I speculated that the U.S. economic expansion had 47 months to go and the bull market in stocks had 720 days to go. Consequently, assuming that this time matches historical averages (which it never does), now that it is one year later the economic expansion might only have 35 months left to go and the bull market only 355 days to go. Or not.

Industry Sector Seasonality to the Rescue!

Fortunately for those of us without an economics Ph.D or a business cycle crystal ball, there is a second type of cyclicality that one can identify with exactitude and which has proven useful in finding the best-performing industry sectors: calendar seasonality. That’s right, if you can read a calendar you know exactly when the stocks of various industry sectors have historically tended to outperform the general market. Of course, past historical trends may not repeat, but it’s better than nothing! Actually, another way to choose industry sectors is to see what the superstar mutual fund managers are buying, but I digress.

Summer vs. Winter Industry Sector Seasonality

A 2005 academic paper found that consumer-related stocks (e.g., food, drugs, beer, leisure, utilities, media, and retail) outperform the overall market between May 1st and October 31st and manufacturing and production stocks (e.g., consumer durables, chemicals, construction, mining, steel) outperform between November 1st and April 30th.  All industry sectors perform better in the Nov.-April period, but consumer stocks do reasonably well year-round whereas manufacturing and production stocks really stink up the joint during the summer and early fall. Consequently, the paper’s most important conclusion is that investors can beat the market by avoiding the manufacturing and production stocks in the May-October period. Hmmm….May starts in three days.

Month-Specific Industry Sector Seasonality

There are two other sources for industry-sector seasonality worth noting: (1) Stock Trader’s Almanac and (2)  According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, no industry sectors are good buys starting in May, but we’re still in a bullish phase for computer and Internet stocks, which began in April and ends in July. There are several good shorts to initiate on May 1st: consumer cyclicals, gold/silver, and materials. Get ready to short banks and natural gas beginning in June. 

According to, which regurgitates information from Thackray’s Investment Guide, the bullish periods for large-cap value stocks and the Canadian dollar end in two days (April 30th) and the metals and mining bull market will end on May 5th.  New bull markets include consumer staples (began April 23rd) and bonds (begins May 1st). Personally, I’m looking forward to the biotech bull that starts on June 23rd (my sister’s birthday) because biotech bulls are usually quite explosive.

Invest in Industry-Sector ETFs with the Help of Global ETF Profits

Global ETF Profits co-editors Ben Shepherd and Yiannis Mostrous focus on low-cost ETFs and ETNs that are most likely to outperform the overall market – both equity and fixed income — going forward. They are not “index huggers” but try to beat the market with their contrarian take on the best industry sectors. In fact, Ben and Yiannis have identified 25 ETFs in a multitude of different sectors that are in buy range right now.  

To find out the specific names of Ben and Yiannis’ favorite industry-sector ETFs, consider giving Global ETF Profits a try today!

You might also enjoy…


Here’s What’s Really Going to Crush the Market

Most folks understand the basic concept of inflation… things cost more money. But tragically, most don’t understand the real implications of what it means for their financial future. 

Or just how dangerous it’s becoming right now. Today.

And there are two reasons for that…

First, the U.S. government’s calculations barely take into account two of the things you and I are paying more and more for every day: energy and food.

Second, since inflation really hasn’t been an issue for the past 30 years here in the U.S., most analysts won’t dare to say it’s on the rise because they’ll suffer professionally. 

But I’ve made a name for myself by always saying what needs to be said. Which is why I’ve prepared a new special report that’ll give you simple instructions on how to protect yourself from the coming storm.

And better still…

It gives you the full story on the six types of investments that are destined to soar 275%… 375%… even up to 575% over the next few years as the winds of inflation flatten the U.S. economy.

You can get your free copy here.

Stock Talk — Post a comment Comment Guidelines

Our Stock Talk section is reserved for productive dialogue pertaining to the content and portfolio recommendations of this service. We reserve the right to remove any comments we feel do not benefit other readers. If you have a general investment comment not related to this article, please post to our Stock Talk page. If you have a personal question about your subscription or need technical help, please contact our customer service team. And if you have any success stories to share with our analysts, they’re always happy to hear them. Note that we may use your kind words in our promotional materials. Thank you.

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account.

Create a new Investing Daily account

  • - OR -

* Investing Daily will use any information you provide in a manner consistent with our Privacy Policy. Your email address is used for account verification and will remain private.