Sometimes it Pays to Think Inside the Box

Do you ever wonder how much those hotel toiletries cost?

It’s probably just me.

Most travelers appreciate the nicer collection of lotions, cremes, shower gels, and shampoos found at higher-end resorts. Some are truly a cut above. W Hotels provides its guests with a spa-worthy ensemble of lemon and sage-scented products made by Bliss. Check into the Waldorf Astoria, and you’ll find a full line of Ferragamo Italian bath tablets and other extras.

Even Motel 6 gives you a simple bar of soap. And housekeepers go through them by the gross. I just checked a wholesale distributor’s website and found a case of 500 for $63. Generic shampoo and conditioner run about $96 for the same quantity.

That means a budget-friendly hotel owner might pay about $0.50 per night, per room. Still, it adds up, particularly for larger franchises. Publicly traded lodging companies don’t break down their expenses on this granular level. But one report from an industry insider suggests that Marriott alone spends about $25 million annually on these amenities.

Of course, all kinds of business have consumable bulk supplies to replenish. Retailers must keep a large supply of check-out bags on hand, not to mention rolls of cash register tape. Restaurants provide takeout condiments and to-go containers.

Those miscellaneous freebies don’t come free.

Delta Airlines (NYSE: DAL) operates 5,000 flights daily. That’s a lot of pretzels, cookies and soft drinks. It’s far from fine dining, but even simple snacks and beverage service can run up a huge tab when multiplied by tens of millions of fliers.

It’s just a cost of doing business.

As investors, we always want to see those expenses become thinner as a percentage of sales, meaning the company is operating more efficiently and profit margins are expanding. But keep in mind, there are two sides to every transaction.

Every dollar recorded as an expense by one company is booked as revenue by another. Considering Delta boards about 50 million passengers each quarter, I’m thinking the pretzel vendors might be doing okay.

But those salty snacks aren’t exactly passed around in a large bin. They are individually packaged… which brings us to the crunchy center of today’s article.

Once upon a time, getting products to market was a challenge… regardless of whether they were measured by the bundle, bale, gallon, or ton. I’m not just talking about the means of transportation — but the containers used to safely load, store, and preserve them during transit.

Early seafaring peoples such as the Greeks and Romans depended on ceramic amphora jars to carry grapes, olive oil and other tradeable goods from port to port. Glass bottles followed, filled with everything from medicine to wine and spirits. Then came tin cans, partially motivated by Napoleon’s search for a way to preserve food for his army. Larger bulk items were moved in crates or wooden barrels.

But these days, the cardboard box is king.

First developed in 1895, this strong but lightweight shipping material displaced its predecessors almost overnight. Such a lowly product, given its utility. We don’t pay much attention to these boxes. Most are tossed in the trash or recycling bin the minute their contents are removed.

Unless you’re preparing to move – then you can’t have too many.

I view this sturdy packaging in a whole different light. Others might look at a dumpster behind the local Circle K overflowing with boxes and see trash. I see sales receipts.

Whether it’s bags of sugar or a case of motor oil, none of the inventory on store shelves arrives loose. By some estimates, 95% of all goods purchased in the United States travel by box. That’s literally almost everything, from a can of soup to a big-screen television. Next time you walk inside a cavernous Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and see merchandise piled to the ceiling, try to visualize the boxes those goods came in.

To say nothing of ecommerce delivery fulfillment.

Let’s get the terminology right. Cardboard might be great for cereal containers or pizza delivery, but it doesn’t stand up to the rigors of heavy-duty shipping. What we commonly call cardboard boxes are really made of corrugated materials, sometimes called containerboard.

Look closely, and you’ll see three layers. There’s an inside liner, an outside liner, and wavy fluting in between. That middle layer provides compression and cushioning to help prevent breakage. More important, it means added structural support to carry heavy loads.

According to the Forest & Paper Association, approximately 100 billion corrugated boxes are manufactured in the United States annually. If laid end to end, the boxes produced in just one year could stretch around the Earth 570 times. Nearly 90% of them will be broken down and recycled. That’s fortunate because demand continues to climb at a steady 3% to 4% pace each year.

Let’s briefly forget supermarkets and big box retailers and just look at the digital angle. By itself, Amazon is now delivering an estimated 7.7 billion packages annually.

That’s a lot of books. And shoes. And sporting goods. And dog food. All of which require packaging. Online order fulfillment now generates about $20 billion in annual sales for box makers. And even that pales in comparison to larger categories such as food and beverage. Estimates vary, but annual industry revenues are in the range of $65 billion in the United States and climbing.

U.S. facilities shipped 400 billion square feet (bsf) of corrugated materials last year. For context, that is equivalent to 9 million acres — an area larger than the state of Maryland. And the Fiber Box Association is forecasting production to hit 435 bsf within the next five years.

That incremental demand (35 bsf) could blanket the floor of the Pentagon 5,000 times.

A small handful of players are sharing all the spoils. There are 200 fewer corrugator plants operating in the U.S. now than there were in 1993. Heavy industry consolidation has concentrated market share among a smaller group, easing competitive pressures. That is reflected in strong returns on invested capital (ROIC), which stand in the mid-teens for some of the better-run outfits.

Of course, those profits can vary with economic conditions. Corrugated box shipments are closely correlated with GDP, so this cyclical industry can be something of a bellwether. Where box volume goes, retail sales may soon follow.

But stockholders in this niche are betting squarely on the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy to win out over time. After all, boxes accompany goods at every step of the supply chain. And my favorite player in this group has been turning that demand into buckets of free cash flow – sharing it generously with investors.

I’m talking about International Paper (NYSE: IP). Don’t let the name fool you. At one point, IP supplied more than half of the nation’s newsprint, along with coated paper drinking cups for McDonald’s and numerous other products. Even the federal government was a major customer, signing documents and writing checks printed on IP paper.

But that was another era.

Despite its name, IP isn’t a big paper producer anymore – which is just as well in the digital/electronic age. Over the years, it has pivoted away from business lines that have become economically unattractive, selling off timberland, divesting sawmills, and adapting to an ever-changing marketplace.

Dozens of sales, acquisitions, and spinoffs later, the restructured organization is now primarily built around containerboard and corrugated packaging.

IP has grown to become the undisputed leader in this field, operating 20 containerboard mills and 200+ corrugated box facilities that serve an established base of 21,000 global customers. These plants dot the U.S. map from top to bottom and left to right… Fresno. Nashville. Pittsburgh.

Since most packaging products are sold within a tight 150-mile radius of where they are manufactured to minimize freight costs, this coast-to-coast geographic footprint is a big advantage. Equally important, nearly 100% of the firm’s North American production capacity lies in the 1st quartile of the cost curve, meaning better efficiency and wider operating margins than most of its competitors.

Decades of consolidation have turned this once-fragmented industry into a tight oligopoly. IP controls more than 30% of the market, about what its two closest rivals have combined. In an average day, it ships about 100 million boxes.

Recent financial results have been mixed, with stronger pricing offsetting lower volumes and driving adjusted earnings up 35% last quarter. Thanks to an expanding international presence, the company is now aiming for $27 billion in sales this year.

Management estimates that tariff-related industrial malaise could possibly take a 1% to 2% demand bite over the next six months. But that shouldn’t stop the company from generating $3.5 billion in EBITDA this year and dishing out a healthy dividend yield near 4%.