America’s ATC Crisis: How to Profit From The Fix
Editor’s Note: If you’re waiting for the U.S. government to fix the Air Traffic Control (ATC) crisis, pack a lunch and bring a sleeping bag. It might be a long while. Fortunately, while politicians fumble and bureaucrats bloviate, a few savvy companies are quietly stepping in to drag America’s skies into the 21st century.
Yes, the nation’s aviation infrastructure is a shambles. But for investors, there’s real money to be made in the solutions—and that is the silver lining to this high-altitude mess. Below, I examine ATC’s current woes and pinpoint four companies that will benefit from turning chaos into order.
Fly the (un) friendly skies…
The U.S. ATC system is collapsing in slow motion, and no one in Washington seems particularly interested in pulling the nose up.
The fatal mid-air collision in January over the Potomac, when a Black Hawk helicopter collided with a commercial airliner in Washington, DC airspace, was a long-dreaded ATC failure that experts say was inevitable. Antiquated radar, overwhelmed controllers, and a broken chain of command combined to deliver a preventable catastrophe. This wasn’t just a tragedy. It was a warning.
The root of the problem lies with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), an agency so chronically underfunded and mismanaged it might as well be running on vacuum tubes. Much of the equipment in use dates back to the 1970s. The radar screens look like Cold War relics because they are Cold War relics. Staffing levels are so low that controllers routinely pull double and even triple shifts. Burnout isn’t a risk—it’s a given.
The FAA’s problems predate the second Trump administration (and even the first), but severe budget slashes under Trump 2.0 are exacerbating the mess. Essential roles in ATC are being left vacant. The FAA is overwhelmed, under-equipped, and paralyzed.
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When the Department of Transportation (DoT) handed the keys to Sean Duffy—a former reality TV personality with zero aviation experience—hopes for reform became little more than punchlines. The only thing soaring right now is public anxiety.
Just ask travelers at Newark Liberty International Airport, one of the busiest hubs in the nation, where delays have turned into full-blown meltdowns. Taxi times stretch into hours. Gate changes occur mid-taxi. Departures stall because there’s no one available to guide takeoff traffic. Travelers are now making efforts to avoid the airport altogether.
What’s happening in Newark isn’t a one-off glitch. It’s a preview of the future unless serious technological upgrades are made, and fast.
According to recent polling, about 65% of Americans say they are more nervous about flying due to ATC issues. That’s not just a public relations problem. It’s a commercial aviation crisis.
Carriers can’t schedule reliably if ATC is in disarray. Crew timing rules clash with delayed departures, stranding aircraft and creating a cascade of cancellations. Every delay costs money and passengers. Some are now opting for trains, buses, or not traveling at all. The system is bleeding confidence.
And while Sean Duffy insists all is well from his perch atop the DoT—when he’s not reprising his old soundbites from “Real World: Boston”—industry insiders know better. The FAA is a bureaucracy adrift.
The controller shortage is now critical, with some regional towers staffed at just 60% of operational need. Upgrades to essential software have been delayed by years. The system is one lightning strike or ransomware attack away from collapse.
Yet in this failure lies an unmistakable opportunity. The government may be incompetent, but markets reward competence. Companies offering real, scalable solutions to this mess are already earning contracts, expanding production, and attracting institutional capital.
Private sector avionics firms are stepping into the breach. They’re building smarter solutions, better situational awareness tools, and resilient backup systems designed to function even when government infrastructure fails.
For investors with a sharp eye and a long view, these companies aren’t just making planes safer—they’re making portfolios stronger.
The investment opportunity here isn’t theoretical. After the 2001 terrorist attacks, the U.S. poured billions into new airport security technology and companies that make passenger screening systems saw their shares soar.
We’re at a similar inflection point now. Public fear is rising. The FAA is under fire. The DoT is leaderless in all but name. To be fair, both political parties share the blame because the problem goes back decades. But the private sector is moving and investors who get in ahead of the pivot stand to gain.
A booming global market…
The ATC problem, albeit most acute in America, extends around the globe, as other countries grapple with expanding air travel and aging equipment.
According to the latest data from the Business Research Company, the global ATC market is projected to grow from $9.55 billion in 2025 to $12.37 billion in 2029 (see chart).Growth during this time frame will be driven by modernization initiatives, air traffic growth, safety enhancements, cost optimization, and avionics retrofits.
Four solid plays on the ATC crisis…
You can profitably leverage these trends via the following four avionics-related stocks, which are all reasonably valued and on track for outsized growth. There’s more to technology investing than the usual suspects in Silicon Valley.
- L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX)
With a market cap of $42 billion, L3Harris is a heavyweight in this arena. The company’s en-route surveillance technologies and Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) systems are vital for next-gen air traffic management.
L3Harris’s voice communication control systems are rapidly replacing legacy equipment in towers across the country. In the wake of the Potomac collision, analysts expect rising orders for the company’s IRIS platform that enhances pilot-controller connectivity. The company also is a major defense contractor, so it should benefit from the inexorable rise of military spending around the world.
L3Harris has shown strong earnings per share (EPS) growth in the past, including a 22% year-over-year (YoY) increase in 2024. Analysts estimate more modest but nonetheless robust EPS growth of roughly 15% over the next 3-5 years.
- Garmin Ltd. (NYSE: GRMN)
With a market cap $39 billion, Garmin is known for its consumer GPS devices, but it also sports a fast-growing aviation division. Garmin’s G3000 integrated flight deck is already a favorite among general aviation aircraft, and its real-time traffic and terrain awareness features have applications that extend into commercial cockpits and even unmanned traffic management.
As airspace gets increasingly crowded with drones and urban air mobility vehicles, Garmin’s tools will prove indispensable.
For full-year 2025, Garmin has forecast adjusted EPS of $7.80, for a YoY increase of 5.5%, on revenue of $6.8 billion, up 8%. Wall Street had been projecting EPS of $7.77 on sales of $6.7 billion. Last year, Garmin’s EPS increased 32% with revenue up 20%.
- Iridium Communications (NSDQ: IRDM)
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, IRDM already has revolutionized ATC outside the U.S. using space-based ADS-B. Their system tracks aircraft globally in real time, including over oceans and remote regions where radar can’t reach.
After the DC tragedy, pressure is mounting for the FAA to adopt satellite-based ATC coverage. If and when it does, Iridium’s constellation will become highly coveted.
Iridium projects about 7% growth in total service revenue for full year 2025. The company generated $830.7 million in revenue in 2024; it expects this number to reach $1 billion by 2030. Analysts predict an average annual EPS growth rate of about 12% for Iridium over the next 3-5 years.
The average consensus of Wall Street analysts who cover IRDM calls for the stock to gain about 56% over the next 12 months.
- Astronics (NSDQ: ATRO)
With a market cap $1 billion, Astronics is a pure play on avionics and aviation electronics. I especially like small-cap stocks like Iridium and Astronics because it’s easier for them to “move the needle” in terms of growth.
Astronics specializes in aircraft electrical systems, power distribution, connectivity, and avionics test solutions. These technologies are central to ATC modernization, including compliance with FAA mandates like ADS-B and satellite-based navigation.
ATRO supplies avionics components to leading aircraft manufacturers, e.g. Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Airbus (OTC: EADSY), as well as system integrators and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) outfits. As aircraft are retrofitted to meet new ATC requirements, Astronics is well-positioned to grow its avionics and power segment.
The average analyst expectation is for ATRO to rack up YoY EPS growth of 104.10% (that’s not a typo) in the second quarter of 2025, compared to projections of 13.17% for the S&P 500. For full-year 2025, ATRO is projected to post YoY EPS growth of 46.09%, compared to 7.92% for the S&P 500.
Avionics modernization is no longer a choice—it’s an imperative. These four firms are positioned to turn a nationwide aviation nightmare into a portfolio tailwind.
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