Curing Obesity: A Market Bigger than AI

The stock market’s recent strength has been attributed to many things. First among them is the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as an economic force.

To be sure, the potential improvements in productivity and efficiency that AI enables are substantial. The money saved can be invested in growth initiatives instead, which is one reason why the stock market has been on a tear lately.

I would argue that there is another economic force that has been unleashed on the world that may turn out to have even more economic value than AI. It goes by the name glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1 for short.

GLP-1 occurs naturally in the body and helps lower blood sugar and promote weight loss. And now that the healthcare industry has figured out how to produce and administer GLP-1 drugs on a global basis, the world may be on the verge of a huge increase in human productivity.

Trillion Dollar Market

According to the Centers for Disease Control, there is only one state (Colorado) with an adult obesity rate below 20 percent. All but ten states have an adult obesity rate of at least 30 percent, as shown below.

Adult Obesity Prevalence Map

Source: Centers for Disease Control

The Journal of Managed Care & Specialty Pharmacy reports that 100 million Americans are obese. Three-quarters of them “have obesity-related complications. Related medical spending exceeds $162 billion dollars.”

That is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The total annual cost of obesity was estimated at $1.4 trillion by the Obesity Medicine Association two years ago. In that report the OMA states: “This number includes costs associated with obesity treatment and obesity-related conditions and costs associated with attendance and productivity at work as they relate to obesity.”

In other words, the medical piece is a small fraction of the total financial benefit. Simple math suggests that there is more than $1.2 trillion in annual work-related cost savings to be realized by GLP-1 drugs.

Compare that figure to the estimated $920 billion in net annual benefits that Fortune attributed to AI a few months ago. That is why I believe GLP-1 drugs may end up having a bigger long-term impact on business productivity than AI.

WW International

The reason why NVIDIA (NSDQ: NVDA) has appreciated more than 1,200 percent over the past five years is that it is regarded as a pure play on AI. It derives nearly all its revenue from AI products and services.

The same cannot be said of the GLP-1 market. Although there are some small biotech companies that are betting the ranch on producing a better GLP-1 drug, the market is dominated by the major pharmaceutical providers that also sell other treatments.

However, there is a way to play the GLP-1 phenomenon that is not yet pure play but could effectively become one. At the start of this week, WW International (NSDQ: WW) announced that it will collaborate with Amazon Pharmacy to provide GLP-1 drugs to its WeightWatchers Clinic members.

That news came on the heels of last week’s introduction of WeightWatchers RxFlexFund, “a first-of-its-kind solution that combines direct pricing from pharmaceutical manufacturers with flexible employer subsidy coverage for GLP-1s, integrated with WeightWatchers’ full-spectrum behavioral and clinical support.”

Gaining Weight

In short, WW International is going all-in on GLP-1 drugs. If it has judged the market correctly, then it won’t be long until the company could be rightly viewed as a pure play on obesity treatments.

Bear in mind, this is a business that only recently emerged from Bankruptcy. Four years ago, I wrote about the company’s financial difficulties. Long story short, its previous business model that relied heavily on subscription revenue was not sustainable.

WW International still depends on subscription revenue for most of its revenue. Except this time, those revenues are tied to a weight loss treatment that health insurers and employers are willing to pay for.

Since trading resumed in WW four months ago, its share price has been as high as $45 and as low as $23. After this week’s Amazon Pharmacy announcement, WW rose nearly 10 percent to reach $29.

Even after that surge, WW has a market cap of only $260 million. That makes it a very small player in a very big market. While its subscribers are hoping to get smaller in size, WW may be about to put on a lot of weight.