Last week, I closed out a trade for a gain of more than 100 percent that I opened three weeks earlier. I wish I could honestly claim that it was due to some special genius I have for investing, but that would be a lie.

In truth, it was a simple trade that required more common sense than intelligence. We all knew that the moment the Strait of Hormuz reopened, airline stocks were going to take off.

That’s because jet fuel is the single largest variable cost for an airline. And after the war in Iran began six weeks ago, the spot price for jet fuel rose from $2.50 on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2.

Of course, airlines hedge their exposure to fuel prices so that an unexpected surge does not blow up their income statements. However, there is a limit to the extent they can limit the damage, especially once those hedges must be rolled over.

Grey Swan

To gain a sense of scale for just how damaging a spike in jet fuel prices can be, consider the recent performance of the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE: JETS). On February 6, it closed above $31. By March 30, it was below $24.

That works out to a loss of roughly 22 percent in less than two months. The fund’s top four holdings – Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), United Airlines Holdings (NSDQ: UAL), American Airlines Group (NSDQ: AAL), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) – account for 43 percent of the fund’s net assets and they all suffered similar declines.

The outbreak of the war in Iran falls short of meeting the full definition of a “black swan” event, but it comes close. It was not unforeseeable, but it was unexpected. Its impact on the airline sector was immediate and enormous. In that respect, it was more of a grey swan.

Wall Street was caught flat footed when the first Tomahawk missiles started flying on February 28. A few weeks later, airline stocks went in the tank after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Delta Blues

To make a lot of money in a short period of time in the stock market, you must be willing to act before everyone else. That is why I issued a buy alert to my readers on March 19 recommending the purchase of a call option on Delta Air Lines that expired on April 10 at the $65 strike price (a call option increases in value when the price of the underlying security goes up).

At that time, DAL was trading around $64 and we could buy that option for about $3. For the intrinsic value of that option to exceed our cost of acquiring it, DAL would have to rise above $68 before that option expired.

I said at that time, “According to my PF Pro stock screener, DAL should quickly rally above $70 once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. There is no way of knowing when that will happen, but once it does it will be too late to speculate on airline stocks.”

I further opined, “recent escalation in warfare by the United States in Iran suggests that the White House intends to use military force rather than diplomacy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If that effort is successful, then the price of jet fuel should fall in tandem with oil prices.”

Green Guidance

The reason I chose Delta Air Lines is that the company was scheduled to release its fiscal 2026 March Quarter results the morning of April 8. I asserted that Wall Street “will be looking to see if the company met its guidance for the current quarter included in its fiscal 2025 Q4 results.”

Not only did Delta meet its guidance for that quarter, but it offered strong guidance for the current quarter, too. Even better, that news hit the street the morning after a cease fire in the Iran war was announced.

That was precisely the scenario I was hoping for when I issued my trade alert three weeks earlier. As a result, we closed out that position for a gain of more than 100 percent.

ALSO READ: “3 Stocks Set to Rally as a Result of the Cease Fire“

Of course, this trade could have gone against me if the timing was a bit different or Delta’s quarterly results did not live up to expectations. That’s the risk you take if you want a realistic chance to double your money in less than a month.

Black Gold

I hope the war in Iran is over, but I wouldn’t bet on it. If anything, I am more inclined to believe that it is not over given the instability of that region and the stakes involved.

As quickly as the airline sector recovered last week, it could reverse direction just as fast if the cease fire does not hold up. In that case, buying a put option on JETS is one way to play it (a put option increases in value when the price of the underlying security goes down).

There are many ways to profit from the extreme volatility that accompanies geopolitical crises such as the war in Iran. While the airline sector was getting hammered last month, the energy sector was soaring.

The war in Iran is an option trader’s paradise. But no matter how you choose to do it, you must be willing to place your bet before the tide turns. And to do that, it helps to have a reliable system for identifying the best opportunities.

Of course, it’s also important to find ways to protect yourself from the volatility we’re experiencing. In my research, I’ve uncovered a unique income-boosting opportunity that can allow you to collect up to $3,387 a month in extra cash. And it’s available to everyone over the age of 18. I’ve collected all the details here.