Editor’s Note: With markets heading into one of the most critical earnings weeks of the year, this Monday, April 27 at 3:00 PM ET, Robert Rapier is hosting a free live briefing on his Income Accelerator strategy — 35.5% average annualized return across 30 closed trades in 2025, one realized loss in four years. Single live session; no encore scheduled. Reserve your free seat here →

It doesn’t happen too often. But on occasion, the market almost seems to disregard quarterly earnings. It’s not that we suddenly lose interest in corporate profits… but rather that something else has grabbed our undivided attention.

Like the Federal Reserve. Or a global pandemic. Or war.

Yes, the heightened saber rattling between Washington and Tehran is the top concern right now. And for good reason. While the precarious two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was extended yesterday, peace talks have stalled and both sides seem to be girding for another round of military confrontation.

With all eyes on the Middle East, almost everything else has been crowded out of the news cycle. That’s even true on financial sites, where earnings are normally the star attraction this time of year. It reminds me of a packed stadium where most of the spectators are too distracted by the jumbotron to catch the action on the field.

There has been plenty of action – with 93 major companies lining up to report first quarter results this week. That’s nearly one-fifth of the S&P 500. Yet, the normally boisterous earnings chatter has been subdued. I did see one article about Boeing beating sales estimates on higher jet deliveries, but it wasn’t exactly front-page news.

So you might not have realized that the early numbers are looking pretty good. You might even say great. According to FactSet Research, 88% of the S&P 500 companies to have checked in thus far posted better-than-expected earnings. For perspective, the average positive surprise rate has run between 76% and 78% over the past decade.

The magnitude of those “beats” is also above historical norms (10.8% to 7.1%).

If we blend these actual results with the latest analyst estimates from the companies still waiting to report, the S&P is on track to deliver year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2%. That would represent the 11th consecutive quarterly uptick – and the sixth straight double-digit increase.

It’s still early. But so far, the Communications, Technology, Healthcare, Materials, and Real Estate sectors all have perfect scores: 100% of reporting companies topping expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

Netflix (NSDQ: NFLX) posted a net profit of $1.23 per share, trouncing the $0.76 consensus estimate. FedEx (NYSE: FDX) handily raced past its $4.15 target, scoring $5.25.

Curiously, though, the market hasn’t been in a very rewarding mood. Again, FactSet has some illuminating insights here. Companies reporting positive first quarter earnings surprises have been met with a -0.2% stock decline in a short two-day window before and after the announcement.

That tepid reaction could reflect macro jitters, valuation concerns, soft guidance, or some combination thereof. So this is not the time for complacency – especially considering next week’s busy slate.

It’s another full earnings docket. But it’s the big boys that really move and shake the market. Amazon.com (NSDQ: AMZN) is set to report its quarterly figures next Wednesday. Google parent Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOG) is also due to check in on Wednesday.

So is Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT).

And Meta (NSDQ: META).

That’s over half of the “Magnificent 7” in one trading session. Keep in mind, these dominant businesses not only exert a heavy pull on capitalization-weighted market indexes, but they have also been out-earning the other 493 members of the S&P 500 the past few quarters.

That trend is expected to continue. This influential group is expected to deliver 22.8% average earnings growth this quarter, double the 10.1% for everyone else.

The ability to meet that lofty goal will certainly impact the market’s mood next week – regardless of what transpires in the Middle East. It’s shaping up to be a volatile stretch. Buckle up.

While Nathan’s analysis makes clear the stakes next Wednesday, our colleague Robert Rapier has spent four years building a strategy designed for exactly this kind of environment: generating reliable income regardless of which way markets swing. His options-income approach delivered a 35.5% average annualized return across 30 closed trades in 2025, with just one realized loss over four years. This Monday, April 27 at 3:00 PM ET, Robert is hosting a free live briefing on the full system — four real 2025 trades dissected, live Q&A at the end. Single session; no encore.