This Backdoor AI Growth Stock Just Increased Its Dividend Again
I thought it was a typo. Or maybe a misplaced decimal point. But then I saw the stock chart.
Let me start at the beginning.
Not long ago, I ran a simple stock screen looking for 1,000% cumulative dividend growth over the past decade. That’s already a steep hurdle to clear. But then I raised the bar by also requiring a conservative payout ratio below 10%, meaning dividend distributions account for just a dime from every dollar of earnings.
That leaves ample room for continued hikes… or the pursuit of growth initiatives.
That’s how I discovered Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX). Back in 2016, shareholders were getting a modest quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share. But that payout has soared ten-fold since then, hitting $0.70 last quarter (a few days ago it was raised to $0.80).
That checks off the first box.
As for the second, the annualized payout of $2.80 represents about one-tenth of last year’s earnings of $28.88 per share. Or, if you prefer, a cash outlay of just over $100 million against $1.0 billion in net income.
Without knowing anything else, these attributes make Comfort Systems an intriguing portfolio candidate for income hunters. Yet, despite impressive dividend credentials, this rapidly expanding business might be even more appealing to growth investors.
Comfort Systems went public at $13 per share in 1997. Over time, it gradually climbed beyond $130 and became a proverbial “ten-bagger”. But the stock has gone stratospheric since then, touching the $1,300 mark a few months ago – for a jaw-dropping 10,000% return. It didn’t stop there, hitting $1,700 yesterday.
Everybody knows about Nvidia’s (NSDQ: NVDA) explosive 1,260% run over the past five years. But that pales in comparison to the scorching 2,050% advance in Comfort Systems over the same time frame. It lacks the name recognition, but FIX occupies the top spot as the biggest gainer in the entire S&P 500.
So what line of work generates returns like these? Well, it’s not all that glamorous. Comfort Systems is one of the nation’s largest providers of mechanical, electrical and plumbing services. It operates a network of 190 locations across the country, catering to a growing roster of commercial, industrial and government customers.
This is one of the big names in heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) installation and maintenance. If you guessed that demand is suddenly booming because of AI buildout and data center construction, then go to the head of the class.
Comfort Systems’ clientele ranges from healthcare facilities to office buildings to auto manufacturers. But the spectacular stock performance these past few years has been spurred by data centers. That’s what drove revenues to $9 billion last year, allowing operating cash flows to surge from $850 million to $1.2 billion.
Whenever profits start getting measured by the billions rather than the millions, good things are happening. And fiscal 2026 has already brought more record-breaking performance. First quarter revenues climbed 50%, while earnings accelerated at twice that pace (up 121%).
Citing strong bookings and “persistent” demand, the firm’s work backlog now stands at $12.2 billion, versus $6.9 billion a year ago.
Of course, all of this is reflected in the current $62 billion market cap. FIX is trading at 40 times this year’s consensus earnings of $43 per share, a premium valuation that implies lofty expectations and leaves little margin for error.
But I will add a couple more points to the bullish camp.
First, Comfort Systems has multiple macro catalysts (including the reshoring of manufacturing activity) and was thriving long before this burst of AI spending. In fact, the business has produced 27 consecutive years of positive free cash flow dating to the Y2k era. Second, it has a healthy balance sheet, with microscopic debt levels.
Finally, while new construction accounts for the lion’s share of bookings, a good chunk of revenues come from routine service and maintenance contracts. And the maintenance base continues to swell, rising from $127 million in 2019 to $160 million in 2022 to $180 million today.
Throw in a record backlog, and Comfort Systems should continue to have the wind at its back.
If this market analysis caught your attention, our colleague Robert Rapier took it a step further in a live briefing held on Monday. He’s spent the last four years building a rules-based options-income strategy that generates premium income on top of the dividends these kinds of stocks already pay. During the event, Robert discussed his full strategy, his 2025 track record, and dissected four real trades. In case you missed it, you can catch the full replay here for free.