Robert Rapier writes about three distinct energy companies today — a low-cost producer, a midstream pipeline operator, and an integrated major — each selected because it can generate substantial cash without requiring $90 oil to last. In his Utility Forecaster portfolios, he applies the same durability standard across utilities, pipelines, and essential-service infrastructure. See how he’s built a portfolio around all three qualities at once — safety, income, and growth in the same position →

Oil prices are back on the move.

Brent crude finished last week at $94.39 a barrel, up more than 6% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $87.06. The immediate catalyst is familiar: renewed tension involving Iran, continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and the prospect of additional U.S. sanctions on countries doing business with Tehran. Traffic through the strait remains well below normal, keeping a geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.

Whether oil stays near $90 is another question. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) currently expects Brent to average about $85 a barrel during the third quarter and decline as disrupted production eventually returns. But EIA also expects U.S. commercial crude inventories to remain below their five-year low through the end of 2026, while strong international demand is supporting U.S. crude exports.

I would never build an investment thesis around the assumption that oil can only go higher. I have been around this business long enough to know how quickly oil markets can reverse. Instead, I look for companies that can generate substantial cash flow at today’s prices but don’t require $90 or $100 oil to survive.

Three stand out to me right now, for three different reasons.

EOG Resources: A Cash Machine at Today’s Oil Prices

The first is EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), one of the highest-quality independent oil and gas producers in the U.S.

There are plenty of producers that can make a lot of money with WTI near $90. What distinguishes EOG is that it has spent years building a portfolio capable of generating attractive returns at much lower commodity prices. That matters because the biggest mistake investors can make with an oil producer is buying a company whose economics work only near the top of the cycle.

EOG’s second-quarter numbers illustrate what happens when a low-cost producer gets a strong commodity-price tailwind. The company generated $4.4 billion in adjusted cash flow from operations and $2.8 billion in free cash flow during the quarter. It returned $1.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, including $1.3 billion of stock buybacks. EOG also expects oil production to increase about 5% this year and total production to grow roughly 14%.

The balance sheet adds another layer of protection. At the end of the second quarter, EOG had about $4.9 billion in cash against $7.9 billion of debt, leaving net debt at just $3 billion. That gives management considerable flexibility if oil prices weaken, while the company’s low-cost inventory gives it substantial upside if prices remain elevated.

Investors have noticed. EOG has returned nearly 50% this year, so this isn’t an undiscovered bargain. But even after that run, the shares recently traded at roughly nine times forward earnings.

At $90 oil, EOG can generate enormous amounts of cash. If oil falls, its cost structure and balance sheet provide more protection than investors will find with many highly leveraged producers. That’s the combination I want from an upstream company.

MPLX: Get Paid Without Betting Everything on Oil Prices

My second pick approaches the energy boom from a completely different direction.

MPLX LP (NYSE: MPLX) owns pipelines, storage facilities, processing plants, fractionation assets, and other infrastructure that moves and processes crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. In other words, it operates much closer to a toll-road model than an oil producer does.

That doesn’t make MPLX immune to the commodity cycle. Prolonged low prices can eventually reduce drilling and volumes, which can affect midstream companies. But quarterly cash flow isn’t nearly as dependent on whether a barrel of oil sells for $70, $90, or $110.

That stability is especially attractive right now because investors are being paid handsomely to own the units. Based on the current annualized distribution of $4.306 per unit and a recent price around $58, MPLX yields roughly 7.5%. Management has also said it expects to increase the distribution by 12.5% in both 2026 and 2027.

Second-quarter distributable cash flow came in at $1.45 billion, providing 1.3 times distribution coverage. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.78 billion, up from $1.69 billion a year ago, with growth in both the crude/products logistics business and natural gas and NGL operations. Several new gas-processing and treating projects are also coming online, and management continues to target mid-single-digit EBITDA growth.

MPLX therefore offers a different way to participate in today’s energy environment. If high prices encourage continued U.S. production, its infrastructure remains essential. If oil retreats, the long-lived assets and fee-based nature of much of the business provide some insulation.

There is one important tax consideration: MPLX is a master limited partnership, or MLP, and investors generally receive a Schedule K-1 rather than the Form 1099 associated with a conventional corporate dividend. The potential for additional tax complexity won’t suit everyone. But, as an MLP owner myself, I have never found it to be a burden

For income investors comfortable owning an MLP, a yield approaching 7.5% combined with double-digit planned distribution growth is difficult to ignore.

Chevron: The All-Weather Energy Giant

The third stock is the least exotic of the group, but sometimes the obvious choice is obvious for good reason.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) gives investors exposure to virtually every part of the oil and gas value chain. It produces oil and gas around the world, operates refineries, sells refined products, owns LNG and pipeline assets, and now has an even larger resource base following its acquisition of Hess.

That diversification has been particularly valuable in 2026.

Chevron earned $12.1 billion in the second quarter, its highest quarterly profit in six years. Adjusted earnings reached $12 billion, or $6.06 per share. Worldwide production climbed 20% from a year earlier to approximately 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while U.S. production reached a record 2.08 million barrels per day.

Higher oil prices obviously helped the upstream business, where earnings jumped sharply. But Chevron also benefited on the refining side as tight global fuel supplies produced unusually strong margins. Downstream profits reached $4.9 billion during the quarter. That ability to earn money at multiple points in the energy chain is one reason an integrated producer can offer more resilience than a company whose fortunes depend almost entirely on the wellhead price of crude.

Chevron returned $6.5 billion to shareholders during the quarter through dividends and buybacks. The shares currently yield about 3.5%, and the company has raised its dividend for decades.

The stock has already gained substantially this year, but analysts currently expect earnings strong enough to put the forward P/E near 13. The Hess acquisition also gives Chevron additional long-lived assets in Guyana, while the combined company expects substantial cost savings and production growth over the next several years.

Chevron won’t provide the same torque to rising oil prices as a smaller producer. That’s precisely why I like it as the third member of this group. If oil goes to $110, Chevron participates. If it falls back to $70, Chevron still has a diversified global business, a strong balance sheet, refining operations, and a dividend that has survived plenty of previous oil crashes.

Three Different Ways to Play the Same Trend

Energy has been one of the strongest areas of the market this year, so I wouldn’t chase every stock simply because oil is rising. Commodity cycles have a habit of punishing investors who assume the latest price move will continue indefinitely.

Instead, these three companies offer different ways to approach the current environment.

EOG provides direct exposure to high oil prices through a low-cost upstream business capable of generating enormous free cash flow. MPLX offers a high income stream from infrastructure that is less directly tied to day-to-day commodity prices. Chevron provides diversified exposure across the energy value chain along with a growing dividend.

I don’t know whether Brent will be $70, $90, or $110 a year from now. Nobody does. But I would rather own energy companies that can thrive at today’s prices without requiring today’s prices to last forever.

That is a much more durable investment thesis than simply betting that oil keeps going up.

These three stocks each approach the current energy environment from a different direction — but what they share is durability: the ability to generate cash and reward shareholders without requiring $90 oil to hold. In my Utility Forecaster portfolios, I look for that same quality across a broader universe, including utilities, pipelines, and essential-service companies that most energy investors overlook entirely. I have spent years building two portfolios designed to deliver what most investors are told to choose between — safety, income, and real growth in the same position. If the framework I’ve described today interests you, take a look at what I’ve built →