Consider the Source

Global asset manager Legg Mason recently conducted a survey of American investors, asking them how much of their income producing assets were invested internationally. On average, survey respondents said just 11 percent, the least of investors surveyed in 12 countries.

About 44 percent of respondents said “not enough transparency” was the biggest reason they didn’t invest more internationally.

Lack of transparency is a major concern for many investors and a perennial source of reader questions for me. Most of that reader concern is focused on China.

My typical response is that economic data coming out of any government is usually of questionable value but, as a rule, it is so thoroughly vetted by other market participants you can usually figure out the underlying truth.

The recent employment report issued by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an excellent point in case. Altough the US is one of the most transparent Western democracies, BLS data showing that the American economy added 165,000 jobs in April has come under heavy scrutiny by economists and analysts who dug into the data and found several red flags.

For starters, the BLS data is seasonally adjusted, using what many believed is a flawed formula to smooth the impact of seasonal hiring patterns. The data entails a margin of error of +/- 200,000 jobs. As a result, it is subject to frequent revisions and any reading within the margin of error must be taken with a grain of salt.

In addition to conveying the number of jobs the BLS believes the labor market gained or lost, the report also includes the number of hours the average employee worked. In April, average hours worked fell by 0.2 to 34.4 hours. Wages, which are also detailed in the report, rose by $0.05, hitting an average $23.87 per hour.

Unfortunately for the US economy, if you actually do the math based on the BLS data, the result would be a net decline in the number of Americans employed to the tune of 618,000 jobs lost. Taken a step further, despite the nickel wage increase, total payrolls also shrank. That’s not particularly cheery news.

In reality, the true picture probably falls somewhere between the two extremes. The employment situation report is largely based on estimates using incomplete data, hence the revisions it will be subject to over the next few months. But thanks to all the eyeballs on the government data, average investors can get a clearer picture of what it actually means almost as soon as the data is released.

Data coming from any other government in the world is subject to the same scrutiny, even Chinese economic reports.

The Chinese government reports balance of trade data on a monthly basis. Last month, Chinese equities weakened on the news that the country had an unexpected trade deficit of USD884 million in March. The country’s stock market caught a bounce earlier this week, though, when the government reported an USD18.2 billion surplus for April, a 14.7 percent increase.

That’s good news for both China and investors around the world, since Chinese exports are used as a key barometer of global economic health. But the data release was immediately met with a healthy dose of skepticism.

For one thing, that number doesn’t really jibe with previously reported data points. Sluggish growth in most of the rest of the world argues against such a big increase, even when you consider seasonal restocking. With anemic growth here in the US and Europe continuing to muddle through a deepening recession, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where export growth could shoot up by so much.

The official Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity, lost ground in April, falling from 50.9 from 50.6. While that isn’t a huge decline and indicates some expansion in the sector, it doesn’t support a 14.7 percent increase in exports. Nor was that increase consistent with unofficial reports of cargo volumes out of Chinese ports.

Analyst estimates using all of those other sources of information point to export growth probably closer to 10 percent, with much of the excess likely due to over-invoicing, the practice of reporting higher prices that those actually being paid.

It’s true that it does indicate inconsistency in Chinese economic data, but the reality is that it isn’t much more unreliable than that released by any other government. And analysts watch it just as closely as information flowing out of the US government.

While there was a time when there were serious inefficiencies in the dissemination of contradictory views, the Internet has rapidly democratized the flow of information. Now a truer picture of a country’s economy or a business’s performance really isn’t much more than a Google search away.

Granted, you have to take stock of those other sources as well. There are a lot of contradictory motivations for putting information out there, but at least it isn’t that difficult to form a clear view of what’s really going on. So while transparency of data is always a concern, it shouldn’t be an insurmountable one.

Portfolio Roundup


Chinese medical device manufacturer Mindray Medical International Limited (NYSE: MR) announced earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50 in the first quarter, beating the consensus forecast by $0.08 cents. Net income rose by 56.8 percent year-over-year to $57.4 million.

Despite the positive earnings growth, shares are down 3 percent since Mindray’s announcement on Monday that revenues grew by only 10.5 percent to $242.1 million. While the company’s Chinese revenue grew by 21.2 percent in the quarter and sales outside of China were up 2.8 percent, sales missed forecasts by about $15 million.

Much of that revenue miss and slower than usual ex-China sales growth can be attributed to Russia and Venezuela, both of which are major markets for Mindray. In Russia, a major medical modernization program came to an end, slowing equipment spending and the presidential elections and currency controls in Venezuela both dented revenues.

Nonetheless, Mindray Medical stood by its guidance for full-year revenue and earnings. It continues to expect net revenues to grow by at least 17 percent over fiscal 2012 and net income to grow by 15 percent. That’s in line with current analyst estimates, which call for revenue to grow to $1.3 billion with net income of $234 million for fiscal 2013, with both analyst estimates and management’s guidance falling on the conservative side compared to prior years.

With Mindray Medical International Limited likely to meet, if not exceed, forecasted growth targets, it remains a buy under 40.