Geopolitics Is a Zero-Sum Game

Nothing shuts down an investor looking overseas like geopolitics. An escalating conflict here and rising tensions there tend to put folks off global investing because they tend to put every market in a particular region in the same basket. But if you look beyond the headlines, you can find opportunity in conflict.

This has been a turbulent year in terms of geopolitics as Russian-backed separatist rebels wage a limited war to gain independence in Eastern Ukraine; China continues to spat with its smaller neighbors over territorial claims; and there was a military-led coup in Thailand. And that’s just a few of the high profile situations, never mind the far-flung situations that hold little interest for the Western World.

We’re beginning to see their practical impact of the growing number and rising intensity of these conflicts.

Shares of Metro AG (Germany: MEOG), the Eurozone’s second-largest retailer, have slid by more than 20% so far this year thanks to growing unrest in Eastern Europe. The company’s total sales were off 2.7% as Eastern European same-store sales were down 14%, swamping a 2.9% sales gain in Metro’s German home market.

Slow sales and weak economic growth resulted in a third quarter net loss of $84 million, as compared to a net profit of $44 million, in the same period last year.

The news is especially unfortunate because last year the retailer presciently sold its chain of Real hypermarkets, which operate in Russia, Ukraine, Poland and Romania, dramatically reducing its exposure to the region. It also had plans for a partial listing of its Russian Metro Cash & Carry operations – a supply company selling bulk food and non-food items to customers such as restaurants, hotels and other professional customers – but had to scuttle them after the Ukrainian crisis disrupted the markets. The listing was expected to raise $2.34 billion.

While this is just one company’s tale of woe, the simple fact is this story isn’t going to be unique. Any business with significant exposure to Eastern Europe is going to experience a decline in the region. But whenever there’s a loser, there has to be a winner.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand experienced a 37% plunge in tourist arrivals in June, following its May coup, which saw a military junta seize the government. Hotel occupancy in Bangkok is reportedly running at just 40%, compared to the usual rate of more than 65%. In Vietnam, where anti-Chinese mobs attacked hundreds of foreign businesses in May and forced thousands of foreigners, primarily Chinese, out of the county, June tourist arrivals fell 5% year-over-year and 20% month-over-month.

Cambodia, on the other hand, which is situated between Thailand and Vietnam, saw a 20% surge in tourist arrivals in the first half of this year. There was a large increases in Chinese visitors in particular, who accounted for almost 13% of arrivals, as they diverted their travel plans to Cambodia. While Thailand and Malaysia were extremely popular with Chinese tourists, the conditions of martial law in Thailand and ill feelings towards Malaysia following the disappearance of flight MH370 have significantly cooled once torrid tourist traffic.

Cambodia is eager to continue exploiting the situation to its advantage, with government officials thinking of going so far as to extend visa-free travel programs.

Surging tourist arrivals are expected to be a boon for Cambodian casino operator NagaCorp (Hong Kong: 3918). The consensus opinion is that the company will report revenue growth of better than 20% when it releases its first-half numbers on August 8. While net profit growth isn’t likely to break 10% thanks to an expanding lineup of senior staff to oversee the company’s growth and construction costs, Cambodia’s popularity with Asian tourists should continue to lure in business for the casino, particularly when it comes to high-rolling VIP gamblers.

While simmering conflicts can give global investors pause, especially since the calculus behind geopolitics can be somewhat opaque, it is important to remember that investing is essentially a zero-sum game: Any money one investor loses goes into another investor’s pocket. So rather than panicking about rising global volatility, the key is to success is to keep your nerves in check and look for the winners in any given situation.