The TPP’s True Value

Although all of the parties say the treaty is within reach, negotiators weren’t able to strike a final deal last week, even though the talks were widely billed as the last step toward the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Canada and Mexico reportedly balked over concerns about just how much of a car must be sourced from and manufactured in a TPP country. That’s understandable because Canada is the ninth-largest auto manufacturer in the world and Mexico has an up-and-coming auto industry of its own.

The Canadians were also concerned about requirements that they open their dairy market to foreign imports, especially as New Zealand is a major milk producer. Foodies tend to associate lamb with New Zealand, but it also exports about 95% of the milk it produces to the tune of about $9 billion in annual revenue. That makes milk the country’s most valuable export, with much of it going to China. Canada, on the other hand, exports virtually none of its milk and imports very little, so Canadian dairy farmers aren’t keen on seeing their market opened.

Despite those hiccups, the TPP still appears likely to happen.

Since 2000, Asia’s total imports jumped from about $262 billion to more than $1 trillion last year. Although countries with developed economies like the United States and Japan contributed much to that growth, the share of Asian countries’ imports from China more than doubled over that period. The idea behind the TPP is not to shut China out of trading with the participating nations, a near-impossibility considering how embedded China has become in global commerce, but to boost the market share of the developing nations participating in the deal.

Aside from the political and economic benefits of reducing China’s role in regional trade and boosting developed economies’ market share, there are other significant gains to be had. A study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics shows that the TPP could actually boost world income nearly $300 billion a year over the next decade, adding about 1% to global gross domestic product indefinitely. The United States and Japan would account for about two-thirds of those total GDP gains.

On top of that, TPP will likely be a framework for future trade deals, with a similar arrangement currently negotiated with the European Union. If both the TPP and its European counterpart are eventually finalized, a virtually uniform regulatory regime will cover such things as patents and other intellectual property for much of the globe.