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Tapping Time-Tested Trends

By Nick Lanyi on November 8, 2016

Election Day, at last.

From Key West to Nome to Honolulu, millions of Americans are heading to the polls today to exercise their right to vote in the world’s oldest democracy. It’s a stirring and encouraging ritual – a tonic for the wounds and bruises of a brutal campaign.

Whatever the outcome, investors will have opportunities to profit in the coming years. As I wrote yesterday, companies will continue to generate profits and stocks will continue to move higher. The trick is figuring out which ones.

One of the best ways is to study long-term secular trends in the economy to identify sectors, and individual companies, with the wind at their backs. It takes time, and knowledge, to pick out the meaningful trends from the panoply of fake trends, fads and red herrings anyone can find in the media. But when you spot a lasting trend, profits follow.

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A great example is Richard Stavros’ three-part deep dive into the impact of California’s aggressive carbon-emissions laws on utilities and other companies in the state, you should go back and read it. Part one is here, part two is here.

And in part three, Richard examined new battery technologies that will be needed for companies to conform with the emissions standards.

Battery technology is one of the most exciting areas of innovation today, as it’s key to the development of solar and wind energy, electric cars and also has utility, aerospace and military applications. As nations around the world invest tens of billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions, a chunk of that spending will go toward batteries that can store far more power.

As Richard points out, California’s electric utilities have a particular need today for better batteries – and that’s putting battery development on the fast track. Several companies stand to benefit.

Again, this is but one example of a powerful trend driving profit growth, and eventually higher stock prices, for companies smart enough to benefit. These trends aren’t reversible. Yes, government policy will have an impact on specific carbon emissions regulations – but the global trend is clear, regardless of who’s president.


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