Account Information

  • My Account

    Manage all your subscriptions, update your address, email preferences and change your password.

  • Help Center

    Get answers to common service questions, ask the analyst or contact our customer service department.

  • My Stock Talk Profile

    Update your stock talk name and/or picture.


How To Collect Your Share of My Million Dollar Giveaway

How To Collect Your Share of My Million Dollar GiveawayWe recently kicked off the most outrageous initiative in the history of investment research. It’s called the Income Millionaire Project. And the goal is simple: create 1,000 income millionaires. That’s a $1 billion goal! No one has ever tried it before, but that doesn’t bother me. I’m so sure you can use this program to make a million bucks… I’ll pay you $1,000 to start your journey. Go here for details.


Highlights From The July Short-Term Energy Outlook

By Robert Rapier on July 13, 2017

Arizona Versus Alaska

When I travel, I tend to think about energy production and consumption patterns of the areas I visit. Two days ago I was sitting in Phoenix which was 118 degrees. Right now I am writing this from a hotel room in Seward, Alaska that doesn’t have air conditioning. In fact, I can see snow from where I am sitting right now.

Alaska and Arizona couldn’t be more different in their energy production and consumption patterns. As I indicated in the previous article, Alaska is still a major oil producer, while Arizona produces no oil at all. Arizona has a huge demand for power for air conditioning, while Alaska needs natural gas for heating. 

Alaska needs to move oil to market, and Arizona needs to bring finished products into the state (since it has no petroleum refineries). Solar power is a big deal in Arizona (although yesterday I was pleasantly surprised to see a solar business in Anchorage).    

The same sorts of supply and demand dynamics play out between different countries around the world. These differences determine where oil, natural gas, and finished products are produced and where they need to be shipped — which impacts producers, shipping companies, and refiners around the globe.    

To make things interesting, there are often unexpected shifts in supply or demand, such as when a military conflict impacts Libya’s oil production, or when the U.S. has an unusually warm winter, and natural gas inventories grow.  

Unforeseen circumstances like that can make or break companies. But they also create opportunities. We can earn money on disconnects if the market initially fails to reward (or punish) a company with a changing outlook. 

Speaking of outlooks… 

Projecting With The STEO

As investors, we plan for what seems likely, and perhaps make a small bet on the unlikely. But how do we plan for what’s likely? That can be a challenge, but we sort through information that has proven to be historically useful (if not always reliable), and we apply our own biases and filters to that information. One source of information I use is the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA has an inconsistent track record, which can be said of anyone who tries to project the energy markets over an extended period. But many investors and companies rely on their projections to guide investment decisions. As a result, I always pay attention to what each month’s release has to say.

This week the July 2017 STEO was released. The highlights from the EIA press release were:

Oil Markets

“A lower forecast for crude oil prices is expected to shave a little off projected growth in U.S. oil production next year compared with the previous forecast, but annual output is still on track to reach a record high in 2018.”

“A revised oil price forecast that is $2 to $4 per barrel lower for late 2017 and during 2018 than the prior forecast will make it less profitable for some U.S. producers to drill for oil.”

“The United States will account for almost 90% of the increase in global production of crude oil and other liquid fuels by non-OPEC countries in 2018.”

Gasoline/Refined Products

“The price U.S. consumers are expected to pay for gasoline this summer has been revised down as lower crude oil costs provide a break at the pump.”

“The price of crude oil, which accounts for about half the retail price of gasoline, has declined in recent months on rising U.S. crude oil production and high petroleum inventories.”

Natural Gas

“U.S. natural gas production is expected increase through the rest of this year and during 2018 in response to higher natural gas prices and growing liquefied natural gas exports.”

“The United States will become a net exporter of natural gas this year, and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports in 2018 are expected are expected to increase 45%  from this year’s levels.”

“U.S. natural gas inventories at the start of the upcoming heating season this November are expected to be lower than last year, but still 2% above the five-year average.”


“Forecast milder temperatures for this summer compared with last summer will reduce the need for air conditioning, resulting in the average U.S. household consuming 5% less electricity from June through August.”


“Higher coal-fired generation and more exports are expected to be major contributors to an increase in U.S. coal production this year, with coal output in western states rising the most.”


“U.S. electricity generation from renewables is expected to increase 12% this year and then remain steady in 2018 due mainly to a drop in hydropower next year.”

“U.S. ethanol production is on track to reach a record high this year of just over 1 million barrels per day, and then decline slightly in 2018.”


The news from the latest STEO continues to be bearish for oil prices but it is mildly bullish for natural gas prices. Should events play out as projected, it won’t bode well for oil companies but could lift natural gas producers. On the other hand, most, if not all of the bearish projections are priced into oil, and there may not be much more downside if prices hold above $40/bbl.

One sector that should do well in this climate is the refiners. In the next issue of The Energy Strategist, I will argue the case for refiners and add my favorite refiner to the portfolio.

Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.

You might also enjoy…


Boost Your Annual Income By As Much As $12,036

We’ve uncovered a unique income-boosting opportunity that allows you to collect up to $1,003 a month in extra government cash. 

This plan is available to everyone over the age of 18.

The amount you make isn’t dependent upon your marital status…

How much money you currently make…

Or even how much money you made in the past.

Best of all, because of the way Uncle Sam views the money that comes from this plan, your current—or future—Social Security benefits won’t be affected, either. 

There’s still time to get your name on the list for the next check run. 

I’ll show you how here.

Stock Talk — Post a comment Comment Guidelines

Our Stock Talk section is reserved for productive dialogue pertaining to the content and portfolio recommendations of this service. We reserve the right to remove any comments we feel do not benefit other readers. If you have a general investment comment not related to this article, please post to our Stock Talk page. If you have a personal question about your subscription or need technical help, please contact our customer service team. And if you have any success stories to share with our analysts, they’re always happy to hear them. Note that we may use your kind words in our promotional materials. Thank you.

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account.

Create a new Investing Daily account

  • - OR -

* Investing Daily will use any information you provide in a manner consistent with our Privacy Policy. Your email address is used for account verification and will remain private.