The stock market resembles a bipolar patient in need of lithium.

Let’s start with trade negotiations. The stock market has been volatile, as investors overreact to every whiff of news about trade.

Recent optimism about trade progress has suddenly given way to pessimism. Talks have fallen through again, which shouldn’t come as a surprise if you’ve been paying attention to my warnings.

Is a trade truce really imminent? As Tony Soprano might say: “Fuggheddaboutit.”

Despite the disingenuous rhetoric from Washington and Beijing, this trade war will not end before the 2020 election. Period. End of story.

Stocks closed last Friday with gains for the week, as investors got giddy about prospects for a trade truce. But in pre-market futures trading Monday morning, the three major U.S. indices were all poised to open sharply lower due to fresh worries about trade. (Veterans Day is a national holiday but the markets remain open today.)

A major positive factor keeping the bull market alive are better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings. More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported operating results so far, with profits on track to post a small decline of -1%, far less dire than previous predictions.

According to research firm FactSet, about 78% of companies have exceeded consensus earnings expectations, which sounds good but remember this caveat: managers are in the habit of low-balling estimates. Each of the first three quarters of 2019 have brought negative earnings growth, reflecting a slowing economy and paltry business investment.

During this late stage of the economic cycle, defensive sectors are your best bets, such as utilities and health care. These two sectors are posting the fastest earnings growth this quarter and they’re expected to shine again in the fourth quarter. Cyclical sectors (e.g., energy, materials and consumer discretionary) are showing poor earnings growth.

The trade war remains a risk, but a few upbeat economic developments are cheering investors. U.S. leading indicators seem to have stabilized and the greenback has pulled back from a 52-week high. Stocks have been whipsawed by extreme changes in sentiment but still managed to extend their gains in recent days, closing higher on Friday for the fifth straight week (see table below).

But the global economic picture remains mixed. Stocks could be in for a rough patch, as new clouds appear overseas.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics last Saturday reported that China’s factory gate prices fell 1.6% in October from the previous year, the sharpest decline since July 2016, as manufacturing continues to face diminishing demand.

All eyes on Alibaba…

Monday is “Singles’ Day,” a shopping festival that will reveal not just the health of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE: BABA) but also the wider Chinese economy.

It’s worth keeping an eye on Singles’ Day, which occurs every November 11. This annual event is a frenzied national shopping holiday similar to America’s “Black Friday.” The brainchild of Alibaba, Singles’ Day celebrates bachelor life and has become the world’s biggest online shopping event. The company typically reaps a sales windfall during the holiday.

Alibaba’s better-known counterparts in the United States hog the media spotlight, but with a market cap of $487.2 billion, the China-based online commerce company is a widely diversified global juggernaut.

Alibaba is the biggest e-commerce firm in China, with hundreds of millions of consumer and business customers. When the dust clears over Singles’ Day, analysts will have a better understanding of the strength of China’s economy, which is the growth engine of the global economy. Early reports indicate that Singles’ Day has gotten off to a strong start.

In addition to the trade standoff with China, other geopolitical risks are rising. Tensions are growing worse between the U.S. and Iran, while the Brexit mess is sowing political discord between Britain and the European Union.

On December 12, Britain will hold a general election that’s expected to be close. The fate of Britain’s planned exit from the EU hangs in the balance. If pro-Brexit Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative party loses, anti-Brexit forces will be greatly empowered. If Labour loses, Johnson will have a freer hand to ram through an exit.

Meanwhile, the circus surrounding President Trump’s impeachment will only grow wilder in coming weeks, as televised hearings begin. Brace yourself for a lot of “rage-tweets” from the White House. Wall Street usually ignores political theater but it’s getting harder for investors to shrug off the worsening governmental disarray at home and abroad.

Six Smart Steps Now

Amid this uncertain backdrop, I advise investors to position their portfolios accordingly:

1. Transition toward value plays in defensive sectors. Focus on stocks that perform well during the late stage of a recovery, notably utilities, real estate, consumer staples, and health services. For our “dividend map” of the best value plays in the utility sector, click here.

2. Elevate your cash level (15% is reasonable). Avoid the mega-cap, overvalued “story stocks” that have already enjoyed a big run-up in price.

3. Tap into unstoppable trends that are resistant to economic cycles. One such trend is the global roll-out of 5G (“fifth generation”) wireless technology. For our special report on how to play the 5G bonanza, click here.

4. Reduce your exposure to export-dependent industrial and manufacturing stocks. They’re vulnerable to tariffs. Now’s a good time to pocket at least partial profits from your biggest winners in these sectors.

5. Consider inflation-linked hedges such as commodities and precious metals. A rule of thumb is to allocate 5%-10% of your portfolio to gold and/or silver. Inflation currently seems muted, but ultra-low unemployment will probably ignite wage growth down the road. Agricultural-based assets also provide an effective inflation hedge.

Read This Story: Seeds of Wealth: Why Agriculture Is a Smart Bet

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In the meantime, don’t get swayed by the manic-depressive mood swings of Wall Street. Emotion-driven investment decisions typically lose money.

John Persinos is the managing editor of Investing Daily. He also serves as editor-in-chief of Marijuana Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com