The Energizer Rally: Still Going

You’ve probably seen the famous ads for Energizer brand batteries, in which the mechanical toy bunny “just keeps on going and going and going.”

Behold the Energizer rally. Despite coronavirus-induced economic woes, stocks just keep on going. The bunny is making chumps of the bears.

The three main U.S. stock market indices closed sharply higher Monday, as corporate earnings continued to surprise on the upside. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.72%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite jumped 1.47% to a record high. Stock futures Tuesday morning were trading lower, with all three indices poised to take a breather.

Judging by the latest earnings projections, the financial battery has some juice left. According to research firm FactSet, to date 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual results for Q2. The percentage of companies reporting actual earnings per share (EPS) above estimates (84%) is above the five-year average. If 84% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 21.8% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average. If 21.8% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the largest earnings surprise percentage reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

As of this writing, the blended earnings decline for the second quarter is -35.7%, which is smaller than the earnings decline of -42.4% last week. “Blended” combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report.

The consensus is brightening for the next quarter as well. During the month of July, analysts increased earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the third quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 1.1% (to $32.13 from $31.78) during this period. “Bottom up” is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index. The following chart shows how this increase compares to recent quarters:

This marked the first increase in the bottom-up EPS estimate over the first month of a quarter since Q1 2008 (+4.9%). Six sectors recorded an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 during the first month of the quarter, led by energy (to -$0.34 from -$0.86), consumer discretionary (to $5.75 from $5.41), and financials (to $6.61 from $6.29).

Also cheering investors are better-than-expected manufacturing data from the U.S., Europe and Asia, indicating that the global economy might be on the mend. The Institute for Supply Management reported Monday that its U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July rose to 54.2% from 52.6%, marking the third consecutive month of growth and the highest level in 15 months. The consensus had predicted a level of 53.6%. A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion.

Big Tech is the big winner…

Large-cap technology stocks are benefiting the most from emerging consumer trends shaped by the persistent pandemic, as quarantined people increasingly shop online, stream their entertainment and news, and embrace Internet services to stay connected socially and professionally. That’s good news for certain tech companies, especially those involved in the roll-out of 5G wireless.

Watch This Video: Bull Market, Bear Economy

But we’re not out of the woods yet. Economic data indicate that consumers are indeed spending on technology but continue to avoid industries the worst affected by the pandemic, such as restaurants, airlines and hotels. Consumers are likely to tighten their purse strings as unemployment rises and fiscal stimulus runs out.

Enhanced unemployment benefits expired on July 31 and Congress is gridlocked on whether to extend them. White House officials and congressional leaders are meeting this week in an attempt to break the impasse.

Beware of magical thinking. The stock market bulls are placing a lot of their hopes on a coronavirus vaccine, but it’s unrealistic to expect a viable vaccine to emerge before the end of 2020. The media continue to hype possible vaccines, but the World Health Organization warned Monday that there might never be a “silver bullet” for the virus.

Read This Story: COVID Vaccine: Silver Bullet or False Hope?

Indeed, health experts are expressing concern that an inadequately tested and unsafe vaccine might get rushed to the public for political reasons. Meanwhile, coronavirus cases are surging by alarming levels, prompting states to roll-back re-openings.

The upshot: We’re probably due for a stock market correction, but it’s foolhardy to try and predict exactly when it will happen. A protective (and profitable) measure you can take now is to bet on mega-trends with sustainable momentum. That way, you won’t have to sweat the market’s temporary ups-and-downs.

One of the most appealing mega-trends today is the global implementation of 5G wireless. For more on 5G and the best way to profit from it, click here.

Questions about the hottest investment trends? Drop me a line: mailbag@investingdaily.com

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily.