Get Ready for the “Do Something” Congress

We’re likely to see a bipartisan push in the U.S. next year for fiscal stimulus, with a strong infrastructure component. Not because Republicans and Democrats are eager to join hands and sing “kumbaya.” Nor because Keynesian liberals are destined to wield more clout under the Democratic administration of Joe Biden.

No, we’ll get stimulus because…Wall Street wants it.

My optimism about future bipartisanship in the Biden era derives not from idealism nor wishful thinking, but from realpolitik. Corporate and financial leaders are clamoring for Congress to simply do its job and help the pandemic-battered economy. These leaders donate heavily to both political parties, which means their voices are heard by red and blue lawmakers.

The wobbly economic recovery needs fresh infusions of money to stave off a “double-dip” recession and keep unemployment from spiking again. If the economy lapses back into recession, the markets will go down with it.

We’re already seeing glimmers of hope that cooperation on stimulus will emerge. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators and members of the House of Representatives on Tuesday unveiled a $908 billion legislative package that would fund coronavirus relief measures through March 31, including $228 billion in additional paycheck protection program funds for hotels, restaurants and other industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic.

State and local governments would receive direct aid under the bipartisan bill. Governors and local leaders face huge budgetary shortfalls because of the pandemic and they’re desperately in need of federal assistance.

Spearheaded by moderate Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Susan Collins (R-ME), the stimulus plan contains $560 billion in “repurposed” funding from the CARES Act enacted in March. Also on Tuesday, President-elect Joe Biden called for robust stimulus, as did Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The chorus calling for stimulus helped push stocks higher Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 185.32 points (+0.63%), the S&P 500 climbed 40.82 points (+1.13%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ jumped 156.41 points (+1.28%). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both kicked off the month of December by hitting record highs. The three main U.S. indices Wednesday opened trading in the red, as stocks took a breather after their best month in three decades.

The United Kingdom on Wednesday became the first country to approve a coronavirus vaccine, developed by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and its partner BioNTech, an auspicious development that should put pressure on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to follow suit.

Ready to move on…

The bipartisan group of lawmakers seeking a stimulus deal before the end of the year said they still haven’t secured the backing of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) or the White House, but Wall Street has welcomed the development, even if the proposed legislation fails this year. That’s because this coming together of a bipartisan, bicameral group in Congress is a hopeful sign for what can be accomplished with a new president and Congress in 2021.

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It’s also meaningful that McConnell on Tuesday held out hope for stimulus talks in 2021 with what he called “the new administration,” indicating that GOP leaders are eager to move on from challenges to the legitimacy of the election.

History shows that major initiatives can get through Congress, despite divided government. Even if the Democrats fall short in the January run-offs for two Georgia senate seats and the GOP retains control of the chamber, it’s increasingly apparent that responsible members of both parties yearn for tangible achievements. The “do-nothing” Congress just might start doing something.

Fiscal stimulus would provide a powerful, prolonged tailwind for the financial markets. The combination of stimulus, ultra-dovish Federal Reserve monetary policy, and effective vaccines would fuel a bull market in the first year of the Biden presidency.

Biden also has indicated that he’ll call a truce in the U.S.-China trade war. Tariffs are difficult to rescind and the Trump era sanctions probably will stay in place, but at the very least we’ll see a cessation of bellicose trade actions against the world’s second-largest economy.

But there will be limits to bipartisanship. McConnell and his conservative GOP caucus have sufficient clout to block progressive Democratic proposals unrelated to stimulus, such as tax increases and ambitious social programs. It’s this aspect of gridlock that Wall Street actually likes.

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All of these factors would help fuel global growth, especially in developing countries with expanding middle classes. Expediting this growth will be the adoption of 5G (fifth generation) wireless technology. I expect the stock market to continue its rally into next year, although we’ll probably experience dips along the way depending on pandemic news.

The red metal’s mettle…

A major beneficiary of robust global growth next year will be commodities, especially copper. The “red metal” is a widely used commodity so sensitive to economic conditions, it’s viewed as a leading indicator. Because copper is a time-proven predictor of economic trends, the red metal is said to have a PhD in Economics. Hence the metal’s nickname “Dr. Copper.”

The use of copper goes back thousands of years, to the dawn of civilization. Because of its properties of malleability and thermal and electrical conductivity, and its resistance to corrosion, copper has become a major industrial metal. In terms of quantities consumed, copper ranks third after iron and aluminum. The following chart depicts the projected sharp rise in copper prices, from 2020 to 2030:

As the world embarks on an infrastructure spending spree next year, demand should grow for copper, making it a shrewd investment now.

Copper will not only benefit from an increase in conventional construction projects but also from the push into new era technologies, such as renewable energies.

Renewable energies require copper, substantially more of it than fossil fuels require. It takes six tons of copper to create a megawatt of power from renewables, but you need just one ton of fossil fuels to generate that same amount of power.

So far this century, copper has outperformed the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested). Copper-related plays are among the surest long-term bets for investors, not just among commodities but asset classes as well. Also benefiting copper is a supply shortage. You don’t need a PhD in Economics to realize that when demand outstrips supply, prices go up.

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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach John at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.