Asia Goes Full Throttle on Infrastructure

The U.S. media are focusing on President Biden’s newly unveiled infrastructure plan, which of course deserves attention. But don’t give short shrift to infrastructure expansion in the East.

China and other Asian countries are revving their bulldozers, too. The investment opportunities in the construction and commodities sectors, especially with companies that wield global reach, are enormous. I highlight a well-positioned play, below.

Reports surfaced Tuesday that the Biden administration is preparing a $3 trillion package of initiatives to boost the economy, with a major emphasis on infrastructure spending and eco-friendly energy generation. The infrastructure plan would strengthen America’s highways, bridges, airports, railroads, waste management, pipelines, water, and broadband networks.

Republicans generally oppose the $3 trillion plan for supposedly being too expensive, but its goals enjoy widespread public support. Democrats in Congress have vowed to pass the measure via a legislative process known as reconciliation, which would bypass the Senate’s filibuster and only require a simple majority to pass.

Shoring up the stock market is the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus, coming on top of the $1.9 trillion relief package that already passed. These tailwinds should generate multiyear momentum for equities.

Read This Story: Four Investment Themes for a Biden Presidency

That said, a new wave of lockdowns around the world due to pandemic worries sent stocks sharply lower Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 308.05 points (-0.94%), the S&P 500 by 30.07 points (-0.76%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ by 149.84 points (-1.12%). The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), aka “fear gauge,” spiked by more than 10%.

In pre-market futures contracts Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indices were trading in the green. Despite increased volatility lately, Biden’s infrastructure plan is further evidence that the bull case is intact.

BRIC by BRIC…

In recent articles, I’ve emphasized infrastructure as a “Biden play.” However, elevated public works spending in emerging markets, especially Asia, warrant investor attention as well.

Without improvements in infrastructure, ambitious goals to boost domestic demand in emerging markets will be unsustainable. Unless they upgrade their infrastructure, these countries won’t be able to achieve the savings from reduced costs and a faster production cycle. This is particularly important for Asia because the region is leading the charge in 2021 on global economic growth.

According to estimates from the World Economic Forum, Asia’s aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 overtook the GDP of the rest of the world combined. By 2030, the region is expected to contribute roughly 60% of global growth.

Emerging economies are in a race against time to build up their infrastructure, as breakneck urbanization is pressuring existing infrastructure. The United Nations (UN) estimates that urban populations in emerging economies will grow by 2% each year for the next 15 years. Each week 1 million people will migrate to cities in emerging economies.

The UN projects that 21 of the world’s largest 25 cities will be in developing countries by 2025. Today there are 16 cities in emerging markets with a population of over 10 million (defined by the UN as “megacities”). China’s urban population is expected to grow by 24% over the next 10 years. These numbers mean that China will be a pillar of the global infrastructure boom for years to come. India should be right behind.

Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries) represent the largest and most influential emerging economies on the planet and they face a momentous task in building up their infrastructure. As with the U.S., China is plowing considerable resources into green technology. According to the International Energy Agency, China will account for 40% of global renewable capacity expansion between now and 2025.

China’s vast “One Belt, One Road” initiative extends through 60 partner countries, with infrastructure projects that will consume huge amounts of raw materials for several years (see chart).

Earlier this month, the Communist Party-controlled legislature, the National People’s Congress, met in Beijing. At the top of the agenda was a reaffirmation of the country’s focus on infrastructure spending and its Belt and Road initiative. Increased defense spending also was an expressed priority at the week-long meeting.

The trade war may be easing under the diplomatically minded Biden regime, but don’t kid yourself. China’s avowed goal is to surpass the United States and achieve global hegemony. China will spend whatever it takes to get there.

The rest of Asia also warrants investor attention. While nations such as China, Japan and South Korea have relatively well-developed infrastructure networks, many often-ignored countries in Southeast Asia (e.g., Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) suffer from chronic under-investment.

The upshot: Construction companies with global footprints and major clients in Asia should prosper this year and beyond. You should also increase your exposure to essential commodities such as copper, iron ore, nickel, and “rare earth” minerals. Copper is especially appealing right now, as demand outstrips supply. For our favorite copper play, click here.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach John at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.