Miles to Go: The Jet-Fueled Recovery

I try to avoid reliance on anecdotal evidence, but certain unscientific indicators are compelling. Case in point: As the summer months approach, my family has been clamoring for a far-flung vacation via air travel. They’re begging for a respite from coronavirus-induced cabin fever.

Or maybe they just need a respite from me. Regardless, if you multiply my domestic situation by several million consumers, you’ve got the makings of a global economic boom.

Global jet fuel demand is a leading economic indicator and it’s soaring, in tandem with rising crude oil prices. Airlines are returning to profitability faster than anyone expected. Below, I examine the ramifications for investors and the broader economy.

The need to get away…

U.S. passenger throughput has spiked more than seven-fold since mid-May of last year. During the same 12-month time frame, the number of global commercial flights has more than doubled.

According to the latest throughput data from the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA), 1,850,531 passengers traveled on May 16, up from just 253,807 passengers on the same day last year. That’s a stunning rise and further evidence that stir-crazy consumers (who are sitting on a lot of household savings) are about to send the economy into the stratosphere.

In addition, the number of commercial flights globally stood at 71,728 on May 16, compared to only 29,843 flights on the same day in 2020, according to data from global flight tracking service Flightradar24.

Eager to visit Europe? You might get your chance this summer. The European Commission this month proposed that the European Union (EU) allow entry for non-essential travel for anyone who has received an EU-approved vaccine at least two weeks before arrival. Overseas flights are particularly profitable for U.S.-based airlines.

Read This Story: From Worst to First: Energy Bounces Back

The energy and transportation sectors are considered economic bellwethers. They’re both resurgent, further affirming the bull case for the stock market.

Now that the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack has been resolved, fuel is pumping again between Texas and the East Coast. After a bout of volatility exacerbated by the spectacle of gasoline lines, growth and equilibrium are returning to the energy sector.

That said, continued weakness in technology stocks pulled the three major U.S. stock market indices lower Monday, as the rotation from growth to value continued. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 54.34 points (-0.16%), the S&P 500 slipped 10.56 points (-0.25%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ declined 50.93 points (-0.38%). In pre-market futures contracts Tuesday, the three indices were trading in the green.

The smell of jet fuel in the morning…

Jet fuel demand had been at historic lows since April 2020, due to the pandemic-induced collapse of the economy and air travel. That’s dramatically changing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last month that U.S jet fuel demand is throttling skyward along with the spike in domestic air travel.

The four-week average consumption of jet fuel from April 9, 2021, through the most recent data (as of April 23, 2021) was more than 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d). That level of jet fuel consumption is roughly 200,000 b/d higher than the four-week average that ended on March 26, 2021.

One of the remarkable turnarounds of 2021 has been the rise of once-battered crude oil prices. Take a look at the following chart, which depicts the year-long movement of prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, and Brent North Sea crude, on which international oils are priced:

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) predicted in late April that global oil demand would witness “the biggest jump in oil demand ever” over the next six months. The investment bank sees Brent North Sea crude reaching at least $80 per barrel this summer, as drivers hit the roads and planes take to the skies amid economic re-openings and accelerating vaccination rates.

According to its May 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for full-year 2021, which represents a 5.4 million b/d increase from 2020. Consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.4 million b/d.

The upshot: Increase your exposure to recovering cyclical sectors, such as transportation and energy. With pent-up demand for travel, energy and airline stocks are poised to win.

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John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.