New Profits in the Old World

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, didn’t mince words. Bailey recently said that cryptocurrencies have “no intrinsic value” and people who invest in them should be “prepared to lose all [their] money.”

Ouch! Here’s my advice: Forget cryptocurrencies, non-fungible tokens, and other exotic investments. Leave them for the “greater fools.”

Sometimes, if you want to make money, boring is beautiful. Case in point: European-based blue-chips are major investment opportunities right now. The broad-based STOXX Europe 600 hovers at record highs but it’s still undervalued relative to Europe’s actual growth prospects. The index also is a laggard versus U.S. stocks, so you can still find bargains on the Continent.

Vaccination roll-outs, central bank stimulus, and improving international trade are generating tailwinds for the pan-European economy. Business growth in the eurozone accelerated at its fastest pace in more than three years in May, as a robust rebound in the trading bloc’s dominant services industry underscored the already booming manufacturing sector. Germany, the growth engine of Europe, is resurgent. As orders for vehicles rise this year, Germany’s auto industry is once again uber alles.

Europe’s return to health is a good sign for the United States as well, because it means a stronger market for U.S. products. For years, the European Union was America’s largest trading partner (the U.S. was overtaken in 2020 by China as Europe’s number one partner).

Read This Story: Expert Q&A: Go Global For Growth

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 10.59 points (+0.03%), the S&P 500 climbed 7.86 points (+0.19%), and the tech-heavy NASDAQ increased 80.82 points (+0.59%). The STOXX Europe 600, which is up more than 10% year to date, closed essentially flat. In pre-market futures contracts Thursday, U.S. indices were trading mixed.

The role of the U.S. dollar…

The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish monetary policy and accelerating growth abroad have been weighing on the U.S. dollar. Forecasts call for the value of the dollar to continue declining this year. If you’re invested in foreign equities, that’s a double-edged sword.

Foreign investments typically perform better when the greenback is weak. That’s because when investing in foreign stocks, you’re purchasing two things: the foreign equities, but also the foreign currencies required to buy them.

As foreign currencies such as the euro strengthen against a weak dollar, the returns on foreign investments held by Americans get a boost.

On the other hand, international exporters face headwinds as they try to compete against U.S. businesses whose goods are cheaper because they’re priced in dollars.

But currencies are volatile. Regardless of how the dollar trades moving forward, shares of European companies are more attractively priced, on average, than U.S.-based stocks.

Destination: Europe…

All these trends lead me to conclude that Europe warrants your attention as a top investment destination in 2021.

IHS Markit’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the global economy in May showed the U.S. leading the pack, but with battered Europe making remarkable strides (see chart).

The eurozone’s PMI climbed to 56.9 in May from April’s final reading of 53.8. May’s level marked its highest since February 2018 and was well above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. The consensus estimate among economists was for a reading of 55.1.

The eurozone is the monetary union of 19 member states of the European Union that have adopted the euro as their primary currency. The opportunities from the European recovery have never been better. EU export markets are set to increase by 8.3% in 2021 and 6.4% in 2022.

The United Kingdom, formerly a part of the EU and now on its own after Brexit, also has surged in economic growth, as it gets COVID under control and lockdowns ease.

European firms stand to benefit from increased exports, higher domestic consumer spending, and the imminent flood of U.S. tourists traveling to Europe this summer to take advantage of the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and cheap airfares. The European Commission currently expects to have 70% of adults in the EU vaccinated by the end of June, slightly earlier than previous targets.

European equities have been on a tear this year and hover at record highs, but they have further to run. Europe’s recovery comes after many false starts. A major reason I think this year is the year for Europe is strong improvements in year-over-year quarterly earnings reports for European multinationals, with some companies forecasting jumps from single to double digits in 2021.

It also helps that Europe now has a more muscular central bank. The leader of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, has pledged to do whatever it takes to boost demand. The ECB expects inflation to run at only 1.3% in 2021, giving the ECB leeway to keep rates low.

Because European stocks were so battered last year during the early days of the coronavirus crisis, many companies continue to be deeply undervalued. Also helping: Europeans haven’t embraced stock buybacks as wholeheartedly as their American cousins. If you seek growth at a reasonable price, look across the pond.

Editor’s Note: For market-beating growth, I also recommend that you consider the trading techniques of my colleague Jim Fink. As chief investment strategist of Velocity Trader, Jim has developed a proprietary investing method that consistently beats Wall Street at its own game, in markets that are going up, down or sideways.

Jim Fink’s 310F trade is the most accurate way I’ve ever seen to double your stake in just three days. Want to learn about his next profitable move? Click here for details.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. You can reach him at: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.