Condo Collapse: The Financial Aftershocks

The collapse last week of a high-rise condominium building in the Miami area throws into horrific relief the need to rebuild America. Rescuers continue to dig through the rubble, looking for survivors.

If there’s one useful lesson to draw from the deadly incident, it’s the urgency of getting our country up to code. As I explain below, this call-to-action is generating a multi-year “secular” investment theme.

A group of Republican Senators on Monday reiterated their support for President Biden’s proposed $1.2 trillion spending package, which would allocate $579 billion in infrastructure spending. The votes of these 11 moderate GOP lawmakers would push the bill to a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority in the 50-50 Senate. Passage in the Democratic-dominated House faces fewer obstacles.

There’s still some tricky negotiating ahead, especially involving a second, broader bill supported by progressives as part of a two-track legislative process, but I’ll put that “wonky” stuff aside for now. Here’s what you need to know: The improving prospect of fiscal stimulus is a tailwind for stocks.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 150.53 points (-0.44%). However, the S&P 500 rose 9.91 points (+0.23%) and the tech-heavy NASDAQ climbed 140.11 points (+0.98%). Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at record highs. In the bond market, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 1.47% from 1.53% Friday, a sign that inflation fears are easing.

Tech was the best performing sector Monday. Lower bond yields enhance the value of future profits from fast-growing stocks. In early trading after the opening bell on Tuesday, the Dow and S&P 500 were in the green and the red-hot NASDAQ was taking a breather.

Shady deals in the sun…

Shocking videos of the 13-story beachside condo pancaking into a smoldering pile of metal and concrete have been circulating internationally, making the world’s largest economy look like a third-world backwater.

I worked for years on a Florida newspaper and the current disaster in Miami-Dade reminds me of the investigative stories I wrote back then about beachfront properties built on substandard construction and shady deals.

The Surfside, Florida condo tragedy so far has left 11 dead and 150 missing (as of Tuesday), making a convincing case, at just the right time politically, for infrastructure spending.

Early evidence points to deferred maintenance as a major cause for the condo’s disintegration, but no definitive conclusions have been drawn. The class action lawsuits already are flying. We’ll see what investigators eventually turn up.

Regardless, the condo incident is a reminder that infrastructure isn’t just an abstract public policy issue. Human lives are at stake. How badly has the United States deferred its own maintenance? Take a look at the following chart, published June 25 by the research firm Statista:

In its most recent Report Card For American’s Infrastructure, published this year, the American Society of Civil Engineers calculated the average age of dams and levees at 50 and 57, respectively, putting these structures at or beyond their expected service age.

Watch This Video: The Next Big Catalyst for Stocks

The construction sector stands out as a smart investment bet on a pressing social priority as well as economic growth.

With pandemic-induced business lockdowns easing, people are flocking back to work. The jobs market is strengthening and consumers are in better financial shape to spend. The debt burdens of American households are the lowest they’ve been in four decades. This summer, we’re poised for an explosion of consumer spending and borrowing.

In this cyclical recovery, the sectors that should outperform includes materials (e.g., metals, chemicals, mining, and forestry). Orders are pouring into businesses again, and although many are grappling with rising costs, consumers are sitting on a lot of cash which means they’re in a better position to absorb higher prices. (Don’t let the Chicken Littles scare you about “hyperinflation.” Seventies-style inflation is deader than disco.)

Cyclical and value stocks burst out of the gate in early 2021 and their outperformance should continue for the second half of 2021. Retail and consumer stocks, in particular, are appealing plays as the pandemic-battered economy heals. We’re also in the midst of a market rotation from growth to value.

The leading sectors right now should retain their leadership status for the rest of 2021. They include financial services; oil and gas exploration, refining and transportation; aerospace/defense; telecommunications; shipping; and health care.

As for infrastructure plays, it’s not just Uncle Saw rolling up his sleeves to “build back better.” China and other Asian countries are revving their bulldozers, too. The investment opportunities in the construction and commodities sectors, especially with companies that wield global reach, are enormous. As recently conveyed by dark events in the Sunshine State, sometimes it takes tragedy to catalyze collective effort.

Editor’s Note: As I mentioned above, the NASDAQ hovers at a record high. Some technology stocks are great buys now. But many others aren’t. In fact, there’s a slew of much-hyped “story stocks” in the tech sector that are overbought and poised for a tumble.

My colleague Jim Pearce, chief investment strategist of Mayhem Trader, has pinpointed the most vulnerable stocks in the tech sector and he has devised a simple way to profitably leverage their imminent decline. Click here for details.

John Persinos is the editorial director of Investing Daily. Send questions and comments to: mailbag@investingdaily.com. To subscribe to his video channel, follow this link.