12/4/13 Passing on El Paso
The latest issue of MLP Profits includes the following Portfolio Changes:
MLP Profits is selling El Paso Pipeline Partners (NYSE:EPB). It reported disappointing third-quarter results, with distributable cash flow down 15 percent from a year ago. With growth challenged and profitability sapped by KMI’s incentive distribution rights and GP interest (to the tune of 39 percent of adjusted net income in the most recent quarter, better times are not just ahead.
Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) has been downgraded to Hold. Investors are reacting badly to the 2014 financial forecast issued late on Dec. 3 that ruled out distribution increases at El Paso next year as a result of adverse rate rulings.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) has also been downgraded to Hold. It’s now forecasting a 5 percent distribution bump next year, hardly an insult given a yield that’s already at 6.6 percent, but also not a reason to get excited.
Crosstex Energy (Nasdaq: XTXI), the general partner of Crosstex Energy LP, has been added to the Aggressive Portfolio. XTXI will have relatively low debt, Devon Energy’s upstream investments to piggyback on, and plenty of growth opportunities in Texas, on the Gulf Coast and in the Ohio River Valley. Incentive distribution rights from the new MLP will add up fast. Buy below $37.
Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) has also been added to the Aggressive Portfolio. Western has diversified on the cheap and will remain Northern Tier’s general partner, and the current market environment is looking healthier now that the discounts on domestic crude have widened and gas prices firmed. Buy below $46.
Stock Talk
Eric Williams
Is the forecast for KMP, KMI, and EPB specific to just these interrelated stocks or does their forecast signal trouble more broadly for the midstream and pipeline sector?
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Henry Turner
A HOLD on KMP at this price has to be wrong. It should be a STRONG BUY.
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Thomas Hullverson
KMP-the chairman bought a lot of stock the other day
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