Scent of a Woman

See this yet?

That’s a man in over his head.

More precisely, that’s Elon Musk, the Tesla Motors (TSLA) CEO, space pioneer and media icon, sporting Amber Heard’s lipstick print on his right cheek like a brand.

Heard has acted in movies like Pineapple Express and The Rum Diary but is better known for her tumultuous not-quite-two-year marriage to Johnny Depp, which she exited in January with $7 million of Depp’s money. The divorce settlement backtracked on allegations of domestic abuse Heard made during the acrimonious proceedings.

Everyone is happier now, obviously, including Depp. Although no one is probably quite as besotted as Tesla’s shareholders, who are valuing a car maker bleeding buckets of operating cash at $50 billion.

That’s more than the market cap of Ford (F) and only a shade below that of General Motors (GM).  Ford generated $14.5 billion of operating cash flow last year, including $6.4 billion from making autos. GM had operating cash flow of $16.5 billion, including $14.3 billion from autos.

GM now offers an electric car with much of the Tesla Model S performance for not much more than half the Tesla’s price. Even as Tesla rolls out its own mass-market entry (at great up-front expense) later this year, its luxury lead faces a mass assault within two or three years by the likes of Audi, Honda and Volkswagen. These are companies known for their engineering and craftsmanship and in a good way, unlike Tesla.

So Musk and Tesla are likely to wreck spectacularly down the road. What’s the harm of some quality time in the company of a dangerous starlet in the meantime? Romantic complications are a classic business performance risk. But, given his record, Musk might as well enjoy himself while he can.

Here’s the thing: as great a money sink as Musk is, he is an even better salesman. Musk has recruited a legion of true believers to invest a fortune in his loss-making enterprise. That all those rapidly proliferating stock certificates are now valued at $50 billion in the aggregate is his doing.

Musk remains Tesla’s most valuable asset, and in that sense the Heard smooch heard around the globe only builds the would-be Ironman’s aura. The mystique will be deployed in the usual spate of product announcements to feed the hype machine, from Model 3 updates to rumblings about electric pickups and semis.

Meanwhile, short interest in the stock is a hefty 27% of float and every criticism I’ve made so far is common knowledge. Can short interest go any higher with the share price up 44% year-to-date? Are there enough cash-wielding masochists out there?

The share price going higher seems a likelier outcome in the near term, simply because it never made sense in the first place. Tesla is a classic manana stock sustained by promises of a bright future right around the corner, and these are notoriously hard to take down because humans have a near limitless capacity for self-deception.

Rich foreigners with billions to burn and an interest in self-driving cars are no different. So in addition to all their other worries short-sellers must now wonder whether the recent open-market acquisition of a 5% Tesla stake by China’s Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) is the last such transaction.

Other reasons to lean long near-term: financing remains plentiful and cheap, the bull market in equities is very much alive and the short sellers, while frustrated, have not yet begun to run scared. Also, Tesla will have relatively little competition for the next couple of years. The Bolt could have given Musk’s cult second thoughts, but it’s not selling well. It’s a Chevy, for crying out loud. Also, GM’s CEO doesn’t have 1.3 million Instagram followers.

I don’t think Tesla’s joyride has reached its high point just yet, and am betting accordingly by means of a call options spread in our model portfolio. You can buy the Nov. 17, 2017 $270 call for $56.55 today, while selling a $370 call with the same expiration date for $14.80. The net cost of this spread is $41.75, or $4,175 per the 100-share minimum options contract. The max per share gain is $28.55, or 68% on the cost of the recommended spread. The maximum loss is, of course, total. Breakeven is near $312, just 1% above the current price.

But if the stock does ever start to implode, there will be a ton of money to be made by tracking the unwind. And perhaps Amber Heard shifting her attention elsewhere will be the turning point. I trust her instincts.

 

 

Stock Talk

TedQ

TedQ

Patiently short. Looks to me like a wreck waiting to happen, just don’t know when.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We don’t disagree!

Jim Fink

Jim Fink

Very entertaining article! You make investing fun.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks, Jim!

Curtis H

Curtis H

Hi Igor, I placed the order for TSLA as noted above but as of today it doesn’t look likely to fill with the initial parameters. I subscribe to OFI and VT and Jim provides a bit of guidance on price adjustments and if he doesn’t it means wait a week and a day and if not filled then cancel. Can you provide some insight on how we should proceed with the TSLA spread? I do enjoy reading your information and look forward to seeing more! Thanks, Curt

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks for the kind words, Curt. You should be able to fill those orders today at the suggested prices, but if you haven’t already done so you might consider holding off a day or two to see if it comes in some more on the largely inconsequential earnings reaction. I still believe the path of least resistance leads higher near-term.

Curtis H

Curtis H

Hi Igor, I guess patience is a virtue. TSLA filled at $42. Look forward to guidance as we approach expiration or implosion. Thanks, Curt

Curtis H

Curtis H

Igor, what do you think these days on the position you advised. It was doing great for a while but not so much recently. Please let me know if you have ideas on how to proceed. Thanks, Curt

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I think the answer depends on your risk tolerance (because, let’s be honest, this trade is a high-risk gamble) and also on the option pricing at the moment, which may or may not be as favorable as in my example even though the stock price is right about the same as when I wrote this. This stock and company are going down sooner than later, but probably not before November, and until they do could still squeeze the shorts hard at any time. Aside from possibly option pricing, nothing has really changed here. Do keep in mind that my confidence in this trade relative to my confidence in the portfolio stocks is low.

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Should’ve got in on this TSLA trade. Grrrr

Derek

Curtis H

Curtis H

Hi Derek, I was a little nervous but it turned out well for me. Thanks, Curt

https://www.investingdaily.com/breakthrough-tech-profits/alerts/38368/pulling-a-u-turn-on-tesla/#comment-95561

Lucille Layne

Lucille Layne

I am wondering what your opinion is on the tech stocks, specifically. CISCO, WDC, recently talked about, MU & SLAB. They all have been going down some. Are tech stocks out of favor now? What is your advice? I remember a few years ago when the oil stocks were so good & then Boom, things changed. I still have a couple that I don’t think I have much hope of ever recovering. I’m a little skittish. LL

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I think it’s healthy to be a little skittish but don’t believe tech stocks are reallyout of favor (and note they rallied again yesterday.) Techs’ market leadership appears to me to remain unchallenged; but no bull market rises in a straight line of course. The key distinction between techs now and energy in 2014 is that hardly anyone was skittish about energy back then even as supply begain building, while tech inventories are under control and demand continues to grow. In another crucial distinction from the shale drillers back then, the techs now are generating cash instead of spending it.

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