Trade Alert: TLT

By Stephen Leeb • December 1, 2017

We are closing out our position in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) March 16, 2018 $127 call option.

The position is too dependent on the uncertain political machinations now underway in Congress over the fate of the tax legislation.

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William Moffatt

12/06/17 ‐ 1:15pm ET December 6, 2017 at 1:15pm ET

Glad I didn’t pay attention to my e-mail. The TLT call option is up smartly.

Scott Chan

12/06/17 ‐ 1:34pm ET December 6, 2017 at 1:34pm ET

Dear William,

Glad you are doing well on the trade.

Karl

12/07/17 ‐ 2:32am ET December 7, 2017 at 2:32am ET

I sold as recommend and pot A of your “3-pots-system” starts with a loss of 18% which reduces the gains in the future in this pot. I wonder if this alert was triggered by a sell signal of the indicator or was it an emotional reaction on the “chaos in Washington” as you wrote yesterday?
My opinion is: follow the system and try to make it better but avoid to undermine it by psychlogical conditioned concerns!

Scott Chan

12/14/17 ‐ 1:57pm ET December 14, 2017 at 1:57pm ET

Dear Karl,

Steve says that the bond indicator was at a level that he could justify staying with the TLT trade. He says he did let his emotion get the best of him here. Given the uncertainty of events in Washington, he didn’t want to risk an even bigger loss so he decided to get out even though he could have stayed with the trade if he followed the indicator signal.

He is considering publishing the indicator levels in the updates so readers can see what they are and possibly consider trade actions based on them.

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About The Author

Stephen Leeb

Bio | Archive

Stephen Leeb, Ph.D. is the Chief Investment Strategist of The Complete Investor and Real World Investing.

Dr. Leeb’s books have been notable for predicting the secular bull market that started in the 1980s (Getting in on the Ground Floor, Putnam, 1986); the tech stock crash and rise of real assets, including oil and gold (Defying the Market: Profiting in the Turbulent Post-Technology Market Boom, McGraw-Hill, 1999); and the surge in oil prices (The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis, Warner Books, 2004). His national bestseller, The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel (Warner Books, 2006), co-authored with Glen Strathy, outlined the biggest challenges facing the US economy, and accurately predicted the 2008 sub prime mortgage crisis as well as the vicious subsequent economic cycle requiring massive infusions of government stimulus, near zero interest rates and much higher federal debt levels. Game Over: How You Can Prosper in a Shattered Economy (Business Plus, 2009) predicted a permanent peak in global commodity production. Dr. Leeb’s eighth and latest book, Red Alert (Hachette, 2011), outlined China’s growing prosperity and the ways in which its demands on increasingly scarce resources threaten the American way of life.

Among his many speaking engagements, he has been the keynote speaker at both a JPMorgan Chase energy conference and a Royal Bank of Canada commodities conference.

Dr. Leeb received his bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business. He then earned his master’s degree in Mathematics and Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Illinois in just three years, an academic record that stands to date. He is frequently quoted in the financial media, including Investors Business Daily, USA Today, Business Week, The New York Times, NPR and The Wall Street Journal. In addition, Dr. Leeb is a regular guest on Fox News, Bloomberg, CNN and Neil Cavuto.