3 More Marcellus Gems

A month ago I shared my rationale for significantly higher natural gas prices in the near future. In brief, prices remain significantly below their historical averages while demand is running a bit higher than expected. And while the price of natural gas has more than doubled off last year’s lows, producers outside the booming Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia have been slow to respond with memories of last year’s glut still so fresh.

And while recent action in natural gas falls far short of the mooted “explosion” a gain of 6 percent or so is nothing to sneeze at. Notably, natural gas made its gains while most other commodities were experiencing big drops and during the so-called springtime shoulder season when seasonal demand is slowest, helped by a chilly spring in the Northeast and the Midwest. At this point forecasts for further gains of 10 to 15 percent have become commonplace, representing a big turnaround in sentiment.

Should these come to pass (and a hot summer or a disruptive Gulf of Mexico hurricane could certainly make it happen) Marcellus producers with the best growth prospects would be the biggest beneficiaries. Last month, we profiled and added to the portfolio our favorite Marcellus play, Cabot Oil and Gas (NYSE: COG). Today I have three more for your consideration..

Diagonally across the state from Cabot in the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania and in the adjacent portions of West Virginia lies the drilling domain of EQT (NYSE: EQT), a Pittsburgh-based, Marcellus-focused producer and distributor.

EQT is forecasting a 30 percent leap in low-cost production this year from its lucrative liquids-rich operations base. And while its operating costs are some of the industry’s lowest, rivaling Cabot’, the liquids it extracts along with gas promise an even richer payoff than for dry-gas operators.

EQT chart

Source: EQT presentation

At the recent natgas price of $4 per mcf, EQT estimates a 53 percent after-tax internal rate of return from its Marcellus wells. The stock is a favorite of several highly regarded mutual funds. Buy EQT below 75.

Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) is also big in the liquids-rich southwest Pennsylvania, though it has extensive northeast Pa. dry-gas leases too among its million Marcellus acres.

Range’s production rose 35 percent in 2012, and the company forecasts annual gains of 20 percent to 25 percent in 2013 and many years into the future. Range Resources has roughly the same market capitalization as Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) but less than a quarter of Chesapeake’s debt.

Moreover, the company tracks efficiency and production metrics, which place it right behind Cabot and EQT, on a per-share and debt-adjusted basis. By doing so, Range is signaling that winning at any cost is not its game, and that it’s a conscientious custodian of capital. Buy Range Resources below 88.

Another driller with growing Marcellus exposure is Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN), a producer that expects to more than double its Marcellus output this year as it shifts resources from the Fayetteville Shale.

At a gas price of $3.75 per mcf in 2013, Southwestern is targeting cash flow from operations of $1.85 billion, a 15 percent increase over last year. Its Pennsylvania acreage abuts Cabot’s, is almost as large and looks similarly promising, though the company has been conservative in estimating ultimate recoveries to date.

On a cash flow basis, Southwestern is about half the price of Cabot, which carries the premium of a much more focused Marcellus play. Buy South­western Energy below 44.

Although all three stocks would benefit from costlier natural gas, EQT has been strongest of late and is the one we’re adding to the Growth Portfolio.

 

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