Nothing Wrong With Summer Clearance

Portfolio Action Summary:

  • IEP added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $83 (see Best Buys)
  • OAK added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $56 (see Best Buys)
  • NMM upgraded to Buy below $15.50
  • KMI and MMP identified as especially attractive buying opportunities
Alliance Holdings GP LP (Nasdaq: AHGP) has declined 3 percent over the last month, in line with the Alerian MLP index (all monthly numbers in this portfolio update as of Sept. 3.)  This has brought units of Alliance Resources LP (Nasdaq: ARLP) general partner to the lower end of the range that has prevailed since their April breakout, without doing much to jeopardize the chart’s bullish bent. The coal mining venture’s distribution, which has grown rapidly in recent years, provides a 5.2 percent yield at the current price. Buy AHGP below $68.

Boardwalk Pipeline Partners LP
(NYSE: BWP) shed another 3.5 percent over the last month, retreating to a level that still qualified as a two-year high back in April. Future performance is tied to the fate of the Bluegrass Pipeline, proposed by Boardwalk in a joint venture with Williams (NYSE: WMB) to  transport natural gas liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shales to the Gulf Coast. In a recent presentation, Boardwalk noted that engineering and cost estimates for the project have been completed. Routing and environmental assessments are now underway, along with community outreach, land option acquisitions and talks with potential customers. But the project, which has not yet received final go-ahead from sponsors, has stirred up opposition in Kentucky from land owners as well as environmentalists. And in the meantime, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) and Mark West Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) have announced plans for a competing NGL pipeline linking the Utica shale to the Gulf Coast via Kentucky, as reported in the Courier-Journal.  BWP units may find support some 4 percent below the current price at the 200-day moving average. The current yield of 7.2 percent is relatively rich for a midstream partnership, a reflection of high balance sheet leverage.  BWP remains a Hold.

Buckeye Partners LP
(NYSE: BPL) slipped 1 percent in a month, but has stuck close to the rising 50-day moving average as it tries to digest the 54-percent gain year-to-date. Two insiders – a director and a senior vice president – unloaded units worth more than $3.8 million in the last week of August near the current price level. Of course, the same insiders were selling a year ago in the low 50s and high 40s, and the partnership has done rather well since. The latest payout translates into a 6.1 percent annual yield, with the prospect of modest increases in the coming quarters. Continue to buy BPL on dips below $70.

CVR Refining
(NYSE: CVRR) is down 5 percent over the last month, but all of that took place in early August, before the widening Brent/WTI crude spread provided second wind for the refiners. Units are up 3.4 percent since they were added to the Aggressive Portfolio on Aug. 12. Investors recently shrugged off news that that the planned overhaul of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at CVRR’s Coffeyville, Kansas refinery is taking longer than expected, curtailing the partnership’s previous quarterly throughput forecast by roughly 15 percent. CVRR did reaffirm the reduced annual distribution outlook provided at the time of the last report, and on that basis the projected yield remains at 15 percent at the minimum. Also, majority owner Icahn Enterprises LP (Nasdaq: IEP) boosted its stake during the second quarter by 50 percent to a total of 6 million units. The unit price is now bumping up against resistance at the downwardly sloping 50-day moving average. Buy CVRR below $28.

DCP Midstream Partners LP
(NYSE: DPM) continued to come down to Earth with a thud, and is now down 17 percent since its record high two months ago. While the midstream operator’s quarterly distributable cash flow tripled in a year’s time as a result of aggressive dropdowns from sponsors Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) and Spectra Energy, it fell short of expectations and what was needed to cover the increased distribution. Still, long-term growth prospects are good and with the yield up to 5.9 percent and the 200-day moving average nearby as a plausible support, we’re comfortable continuing to Hold DPM.

El Paso Pipeline Partners LP
(NYSE: EPB) outperformed most of its peers by treading water in the last month, the unit price fluctuating in a narrow band between the rising 200-day moving average and the flat 50-day above. At mid-month, the partnership announced the successful completion of an open season signing up customers for the north-to-south expansion of its Elba Express pipeline and related improvements to Southern Natural Gas network, designed to bring natural gas from the Marcellus to customers across the Southeast and ultimately to the liquefaction terminal parent Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is planning in a joint venture with Shell (NYSE: RDS-B) on the Georgia coast. El Paso signed contracts to transport an extra 600 million cubic feet of natural gas a day (MMcf/d) on the new pipes, with the potential to add another 400 MMcf/d later. The current phase of the project, which will cost more than $200 million, is set to begin service “as early as” June 2016. The planned 2013 distribution would yield 6.2 percent at the current price. EPB remains a Hold while KMI decides which of its affiliates will be involved in another LNG export project planned for the Gulf Coast.

Energy Transfer Equity
(NYSE: ETE) is down 5 percent from the record high hit Aug. 8, but continues to find support at the up-trending 50-day average. The distribution is rising by a penny per unit per quarter at the moment but should see much stronger growth in the coming years thanks to a lucrative portfolio of incentive distribution rights from affiliates Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP), Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) and Sunoco Logistics (NYSE: SXL). The current yield is 4.2 percent. Buy ETE below $69.

Energy Transfer Partners LP
(NYSE: ETP) is up not quite 20 percent in the last year vs. 40 percent for ETE, a reflection of the latter’s superior payout growth prospects. But in August ETP actually marginally closed the gap after transferring to ETE half the incentive distribution rights from SXL, and restarting dividend growth with the resulting savings on its own distributions. The current yield stands at 7 percent, but payout growth will be limited by ETE’s growing cut. Continue to Hold ETP.

Enterprise Products Partners LP
(NYSE: EPD) dropped nearly 5 percent in the last month, contributing to a 10-percent pullback in the five weeks since the record high set in mid-July. The gently rising 200-day moving average is nearby, and should provide price support. Important projects are due to be completed during the current quarter, including the Texas Express pipeline carrying NGL from mid-continent to Enterprise processing plants on the Texas coast and the Eagle Ford crude pipeline carrying crude from the booming south Texas basin to the refineries and storage tanks near Houston. Perhaps those launches will curtail the profit-taking. The yield is now at 4.6 percent. Continue to buy EPD below $66.

EQT Midstream Partners LP
(NYSE: EQM) is up 2 percent since it was added to the Growth Portfolio on Aug. 12, and some 6 percent shy of its June record high. Oppenheimer initiated coverage Wednesday with an Outperform rating and a $55 price target, praising it as a low-risk, fast-growth play in the booming Marcellus natural gas production basin. Investors Business Daily has also been touting EQM frequently, and awards it a composite rating of 97 based on its technical scoring system. The distribution currently yields 3.3 percent and should grow very rapidly. Buy EQM below $51.

Genesis Energy
(NYSE: GEL) inched up less than 1 percent in a month, consolidating  first-quarter gains just below its flat 50-day average. The fast-growing crude transporter pushed continued to expand operations, completing the acquisition of nine oceangoing crude barges and a similar number of tugboats from Hornbeck Offshore Services (NYSE: HOS) for $230 million. Genesis also announced the imminent construction of a new Louisiana crude oil unit train facility, for offloading crude from the US and Canadian interior before shipment to nearby refineries. The $75 million facility will have the capacity to unload some 140,000 barrels of crude a day and have a 400,000 barrels of storage capacity. It’s expected to become operational in the second quarter of 2015. The buildout of rail and barge capacity will enable Genesis to offer flexibility to customers who can now only guess where crude will fetch the best price as the refining complex ramps up to cope with a surge of domestic production. Last month, Genesis announced the 32nd consecutive increase in a payout that grew 11 percent in a year’s time. The yield now stands at an annualized 4.2 percent. Buy GEL up to $55.

Inergy Midstream LP
(NYSE: NRGM) announced its first significant new venture since the recent merger with Crestwood Midstream, a Wyoming crude rail terminal capable of handling 20,000 barrels a day starting next year and up to three times that amount with additional modifications,  as drilling in the Niobrara Powder River Basin beneath the facility ramps. NRGM will own a 50 percent interest in a joint venture with the closely held Enserco Midstream. NRGM units are flat over the last three weeks, consolidating just below the 200-day moving average and currently yielding 6.9 percent. NRGM remains a Hold.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP
(NYSE: KMP) finds itself in the bargain bin. The unit price failed to recover from a late-July selloff during August, and now sits 13 percent below April’s record high. The coming campaign against the partnership by Hedgeye Research, the same small firm that fronted the campaign against Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE) is previewed here, though Hedgeye is about all that Kinder Morgan and Linn have in common. The distribution yield is up to 6.6 percent, but we still prefer general partner and recent Growth Portfolio addition Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI). KMI is also down 14 percent from its May peak but offers a 4.5 percent yield that grew 14 percent year-over-year, twice as fast as KMP’s. The disparity in growth rates is set to widen as incentive distribution rights send KMI’s way a rising share of the income from the partnerships it manages. As mentioned in last week’s story, that makes KMI the single best buying idea right now across our portfolios. Continue buying KMI below $42 and KMP below $86.

Legacy Reserves LP
(Nasdaq: LGCY) slipped 1 percent over the last month, but managed to keep above its flat 50- and 200-day moving averages. Investor presentation slides released in conjunction with a recent conference boasted of 11 consecutive distribution increases for a combined gain of 41 percent since the January 2007 initial public offering. The current rate works out to an annualized yield of 8.6 percent. Buy LGCY below $29.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP
(NYSE: MMP)is down 6 percent from the record high set on Aug. 1, despite last month’s terrific earnings report and increased distribution guidance. The payout is set to  rise 16 percent this year, with a solid 1.3 coverage ratio, and another percent in 2014. The refined product shipper has $1 billion of expansion project under way as it attempts to diversify into the transport of crude, especially from the Permian basin. Units already yield 4 percent, and offer one of the  best combinations of growth and safety in the sector. Buy MMP below $60.

Mid-Con Energy Partners LP
(Nasdaq: MCEP) units remained volatile, surrendering all of the big July rally during the first half of August before rebounding somewhat in the second half of the month. Still, over the last 30 days the price dropped 5 percent even as it’s stayed above key moving averages. A recent profile of the waterflooding specialist in MLP Investing Insider noted that crude oil makes up the overwhelming bulk of its energy output.  On Aug. 19 the analyst at Robert W. Baird upgraded MCEP to Outperform with a $26 price target, opining that the exposure to crude, including 30 percent of near-term output that hasn’t been hedged, makes MCEP the single best MLP play on higher crude prices. MCEP remains a Buy below $24.

Navios Maritime Partners LP
(NYSE: NMM) sank 7 percent over the last month, reversing all of its July gains, in what might be the most puzzling action within our portfolios. After all, shipping rates have risen sharply on evidence of stepped up commodity imports by China, with the benchmark Baltic Dry index up 17 percent since Aug. 12, and Capesize rates for a class that represents more than half of NMM’s tonnage rising 30 percent over the last three weeks. NMM sponsor and general partner Navios Maritime (NYSE: NMM) has rallied 11 percent in the last month, not to mention 85 percent year-to-date. Yet NMM is roughly flat since early January, despite recent management assurances that its distribution, now yielding 12.5 percent, is safe through the end of 2014. Something doesn’t add up, and we think that something is NMM’s lagging price. Yesterday, the partnership announced it has chartered its newest Capesize fleet addition at a rate below long-term charters for this class landed in better times, but well above that for NMM’s only Capesize charter expiring next year. We are upgrading NMM to a Buy below $15.50.

Oiltanking Partners LP
(NYSE: OILT) The unit price of the crude storage specialist crept up 1 percent over the last month, continuing to trade in the narrow range near its 50-day moving average after the big first-quarter rally. A recent company presentation highlighted soaring demand for crude and refined product storage facilities along the Gulf Coast, including Houston, where Oil Tanking is in the process of expanding its terminal. The partnership boosted its per-unit distribution 5 percent sequentially and 18 percent year-over-year last month after reporting another strong quarter, but could have paid a lot more considering that revenue was up 54 percent year-over-year, producing distributable cash flow twice the amount of the increased payout. The current yield stands at 3.5 percent, but the distribution is likely to continue growing rapidly for years. Buy OILT below $50.

Regency Energy Partners LP
(NYSE: RGP)has retreated 7 percent from its July peak, pushing the yield to 6.9 percent. In rating a bond refinancing issue this week, Moody’s noted the partnership’s elevated leverage in the wake of the merger with Southern Union, but also the likelihood that brisk earnings growth will reduce that leverage over the next two years. Hold RGP.

Spectra Energy Partners LP
(NYSE: SEP) continued to consolidate after a 30 percent rally in June ahead of the massive $12 billion asset dropdown by sponsor Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) announced last month. SEP will take over Spectra’ remaining interstate natural gas pipelines and storage facilities as well as a major crude pipeline, giving it a presence in several key production basins as well as markets ranging from fast-growing interior South and Florida and into the Northeast. But with distribution growth of 9 percent or so will come the increased drag from incentive distribution rights that entitle SE to half of the incremental increases in the payout. That was once negative cited by Jeffries this week when it initiated SEP with a Hold rating and a $45 price target. We’ve been at a Hold for the last two months, but are comfortable hanging on to this big winner. Hold SEP.

Sunoco Logistics Partners LP
(NYSE: SXL) is up 1 percent since we added the refined products shipper to the Growth Portfolio on Aug. 12, keeping the yield at a modest 3.7 percent. As with EQT, a highly visible path to rapid growth is the main attraction here. SXL’s distribution is growing at an annual rate of more than 20 percent.  In upgrading SXL to a Buy this week, Zacks.com praised the rapid payout growth, solid balance sheet and recent move into butane blending. It also pointed out that the partnership has bested earnings estimates for the last nine quarters by a huge average margin of 42 percent. Buy SXL below $67.

Targa Resources Partners LP
(NYSE: NGLS) has held steady over the last three weeks, digesting a 30 percent rally year-to-date. The distribution, which is up 11 percent in a year’s time, currently provides a 5.9 percent annualized yield. Jeffries initiated coverage this week with a Buy and a $56 price target. Our own Buy below target remains at $44, which would require a 10 percent drop from current levels. The growth is nice, but we’re waiting for the distribution coverage creep back above 1 once the heavy capital spending slate begins to come to fruition.

Teekay LNG Partners LP
(NYSE: TGP) Like so many MLPs, this one has corrected of late, retreating 7 percent from the July peak but holding its ground since the start of August. The operator of gas-beraing tankers is poised to profit handsomely from the coming wave of LNG exports from the US, and has the financial flexibility to comfortably weather the lean charter market that’s likely to persist in the meantime. Units currently yield 6.4 percent, and the payout should grow rapidly starting in 2016. Coincidentally, 6.43 percent is what TGP will pay on the kroner-denominated bonds it issued this week in Norway, raising the equivalent of $150 million. Buy TGP below $46.

Vanguard Natural Resources
(Nasdaq: VNR) was the top Aggressive Portfolio performer over the last month and the only one in the green, adding not quite 2 percent. Units have recovered fully from the volatility associated with the sell-off in Linn Energy (Nasdaq: LINE) two months ago. The monthly July distribution payable Sept. 13 to holders as of Sept. 3 rose to $0.2075 per unit, from $0.2050 previously, for an annualized yield of 9.1 percent at the current price. Vanguard also declared a monthly distribution on a non-convertible perpetual preferred security it pioneered within the MLP space in June. The partnership raised net proceeds of $60.8 million from the security, which carries a 7.875 percent annual interest rate and is callable by Vanguard after five years.  Listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker VNRAP, the issue has proved popular, appreciating more than 2 percent over the last two months.  Meanwhile, rebounding natural gas prices should support the common. Buy VNR below $28.

Stock Talk

David

David

Just to confirm, KMI is NOT an MLP and is thus okay to hold in a tax-deferred account, correct?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

That’s correct: KMI is a C corp suitable for an IRA

Howard

Howard

In MLP Profits #51, if you own EDP or ETP “…do yourself a favor and enroll in their Distribution Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs)…”. How would one do this?

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