Business Is Booming

Portfolio Action Summary:

  • BWP added to Aggressive Portfolio; buy below $15 (see Best Buys)
  • NGL added to Growth Portfolio; buy below $44 (see Best Buys)
  • OILT Buy Below target raised to $75
  • NGLS Buy Below target raised to $63

Alliance Holdings (Nasdaq: AHGP) slipped 1.1 percent in March (all monthly numbers in this portfolio update as of March 28.) The company is expected to report first-quarter earnings on April 25. AHGP is a Buy up to $68.

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) received an affirmation of its ‘BB’ Issuer Default Rating by Fitch Ratings. The ‘BB’ senior debt rating will be applied to AmeriGas Partners and its fully guaranteed financing co-borrower, AmeriGas Finance Corp. About $2.3 billion of the partnership’s outstanding long-term debt is affected. AmeriGas will report second-quarter 2014 earnings on April 29. APU is rated the #9 Best Buy up to $51.

Atlas Resource Partners (NYSE: ARP) completed a public offering of 6.3 million common units at a price of $21.18 on March 7. The offering netted about $129 million before the optional  underwriter allotments. Atlas plans to use the proceeds to fund a previously-announced acquisition of natural gas assets from GeoMet (OTC: GMET). On March 21, Atlas Resource Partners was added to the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ) and the Alerian MLP Equal Weight Index ( AMZE). Shares have fallen 1.6 percent in the past month. The yield currently stands at 10.5 percent. The company is expected to report earnings on May 8. ARP is a buy up to $23.

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) advanced 1.8 percent in March, then set a new 52-week high in early April. The partnership  is expected to report earnings on May 2. BPL is a Buy up to $70.

Crestwood Midstream Partners (NYSE: CMLP) slipped  0.5 percent last month. On April 1, the partnership announced a further expansion of its Willow Lake Project in the Permian Basin, which will involve converting a portion of the Las Animas gas gathering system in New Mexico to rich gas service and building a cryogenic processing plant, This phase is expected to cost up to $30 million and to be completed in the third quarter. Meanwhile, John J. Sherman, director and 10 percent owner of Crestwood, sold 100,000 shares at $22.18 to $22.36 per share between March 14 and March 18. Sherman then sold another 50,000 shares at $22.31 on March 19-20. First-quarter earnings are due on May 27. CMLP is a Buy below $25.  

CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR) is expected to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. Shares rose 10.7 percent last month. CVRR is a Buy up to $26.

DCP Midstream Partners (NYSE: DPM) was assigned a ‘BBB-‘ rating by Fitch Ratings for its proposed senior unsecured note offering due 2019 and 2044. The offering is expected to generate about $677 million, which DCP Midstream will use to expand its sour processing capacity in the Permian Basin.

Specifically, management will use the proceeds from the offering to fund a portion of its recently announced acquisition of a one-third interest in two natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines. The funds will also be applied to the remaining 20 percent interest in DCP SC Texas GP, a completed natural gas processing plant, and another gas processing plant under construction. DCP had agreed to acquire these assets In February for about $1.2 billion.

The assets are expected to significantly increase DCP’s  gathering and processing capacity in the Permian Basin. The partnership already owns 18 gas processing plants in the Permian with a capacity of 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) and produces more than 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) of NGLs. The unit price rose 1.4 percent in March ahead of first-quarter earnings due on May 8. DPM is a Buy up to $51.

EnLink Midstream (NYSE: ENLC) was formed in March through the combination of Crosstex Energy and the US midstream assets of Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). On March 20, its operating affiliate Enlink Midstream Partners (NYSE: ENLK) announced an offering of nearly 18 million common units representing limited partner interests owned by GSO Crosstex Holdings. The proceeds from the offering were expected to total $550 million. The newly minted company will report first-quarter earnings on May 8. ENLC is rated the #8 Best Buy up to $40.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) held its analyst meeting on March 18 after another highly successful year. The leading NGL processor placed into service major growth projects worth $2.3 billion last year, a total it has already matched so far in 2014, with another $2.5 billion set for completion during the remainder of the year and $3 billion more under construction set to be completed in future years.

Following the analyst meeting, Credit Suisse upgraded EPD from Neutral to Outperform with a $78 price target, while Stifel raised its target from $70 to $75.

Enterprise also won an important regulatory victory in February when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission overturned an administrative law judge’s ruling that had threatened the negotiated rates on its expanded Seaway crude pipeline.

As the dominant propane exporter, Enterprise remains the biggest beneficiary from the rising tide of natural gas and NGLs pumped out of the domestic shale basins, and will be a key player in the petrochemical boom capitalizing on the this cheap feedstock as well. EPD remains our top-ranked Best Buy below $75.  

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) will report first-quarter earnings on May 8. The unit price rose 7 percent in March, hitting an all-time high on March 26, and is up 15.3 percent year-to-date. ETE is the is the #4 Best Buy below $52.

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) was awarded $319 million by a Texas jury as compensation for an ill-starred pipeline venture with Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), prevailing in its claims that EPD reneged on its commitments to a partnership even though their preliminary letter of intent specifically stated none was in effect. Energy transfer claimed it had been wrongly cut out of a deal to help build a pipeline related to the Keystone XL project. ETP’s unit price slipped 2.7 percent in March. The partnership will report first-quarter earnings on May 7. ETP is a Buy up to $55.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) will release first-quarter earnings on April 24. EQT Midstream rose 5.4 percent in March, hitting an all-time high a penny  shy of our buy target on March 28. EQM is ranked the #7 Best Buy up to $70.

Genesis Energy (NYSE: GEL) is expected to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. The unit price slid 3 percent in March but is still up year-to-date. GEL is rated a Hold.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is expected to post first-quarter2014 earnings on April 17. The partnership recently reaffirmed the annual dividend and distribution forecast for its shares and units of the affiliated partnerships, first issued in January.

Kinder Morgan continues to forecast an annual KMI dividend of $1.72 per share. Unitholders of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP), Kinder Morgan Management (NYSE: KMR), and El Paso Pipeline Partners (NYSE: EPB) can continue to expect 2014 distributions of $5.58, $5.58 and $2.60 per unit, respectively. Shares of Kinder Morgan rose 0.9 percent in March after falling 9.7 percent for the first two months of the year amid negative press. KMI and KMP remain Holds.

 Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) will release first-quarter earnings of May 7. Shares rose 2.6 percent during March. MMP is the #2 ranked Best Buy up to $77.

MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) announced it has increased its revolving credit facility to $1.3 billion and extended maturity by 18 months to 2019. The partnership also expanded its existing accordion option from $250 million to $500 million. The unit price rose 2.3 percent in March. MarkWest is expected to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. MWE is a Buy up to $70.

Mid-Con Energy Partners (Nasdaq: MCEP) announced the acquisition of waterflood operations in Oklahoma and Texas for $41 million from its sponsor Mid-Con Energy III on March 3. The assets produced 349 boe/d of crude oil in 2013, and production is expected to remain flat for several years before declining at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Total proved net reserves of the assets total about 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) with a reserve life of 13 years. Mid-Con’s unit price  shed 7.3 percent in March is currently near a 52-week low. The partnership will report first-quarter earnings on May 7. Buy MCEP below $24.

Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) soared 15.5 percent in March, hitting a 52-week high of $19.89 on March 28. April is so far proving far less kind. The bulk shipper  is expected to release first-quarter earnings on April 25. Buy NMM up to $17.70.

Oaktree Capital Management (NYSE: OAK) declined 6.4 percent in March in the wake of a big insider secondary  offering, regrouping near $58. Oaktree will report first-quarter earnings on May 7. OAK is a Buy under $52.

OCI Partners (NYSE: OCIP) has traded lower since reporting its first quarterly result as a public partnership on March 19, but the investment story remains much the same. The Texas methanol and ammonia producer continues to benefit from robust methanol prices even as it feels the sting of costlier natural gas, its main input.

OCI Partners declared a variable distribution of 61 cents per common unit for the fourth quarter of 2013, and projected distributions of $2 to $2.20 per unit in 2014. This assumes an average selling price for methanol of $489 per metric ton, up 10 percent from the average last year, and a natural gas price of $4.68 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up from $3.78/mmBtu in 2013. It also assumes 13 days on unplanned downtime for the balance of the year on top of the 14 that occurred during the first quarter and the 40 days of downtime tied to a major capacity expansion due in the fall.

That overhaul has slipped from its original third-quarter timetable into the fourth-quarter because of the timing of delivery of the needed equipment, but remains on budget and on track to expand the partnership’s methanol production capacity by 25 percent and its maximum ammonia output by 15 percent next year. Assuming constant commodity prices, the capacity increases could push distributions to $2.50 per unit or more in 2015.

Management indicated it is now considering hedging its natural gas costs, though no such hedges have been purchased to date. Buy OCIP below $29.  

Oiltanking Partners (NYSE: OILT) advanced 9 percent in March, reaching an all-time high of $76.72 on March 25. So far in 2014, the unit price has rallied 22.5 percent. Oiltanking Partners will report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Buy OILT on dips below the increased maximum of $75[KN1] .

Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) and PVR Partners merged on March 21. Plans for the merger were made public on Oct 20. Under the terms of the deal, Regency acquired PVR in a unit-for-unit transaction. Each common PVR unit was exchanged for 1.02 common units of RGP and a one-time cash payment of $0.262. Regency’s unit price rose 2.5 percent in March. The gas gathering partnership will report first-quarter earnings on May 7. RGP is a Hold.

Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) will report earnings on May 2. The unit price slipped 0.2 percent in March. SEP is a Hold.

Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) will report first-quarter earnings on April 30.  The unit price rallied to a record high above $90 by April 1. SXL is the #3 Best Buy up to $91.

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) jumped 4% to a record high near $104 on April 1 after operating affiliate Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) revised its EBITDA outlook for 2014 to a new range of $820 million to $880 million, citing the strength of the LPG export market (covered in greater detail in this month’s Sector Spotlight.) The previous EBITDA forecast called for at least $750 million. Targa also announced it’s received board go-ahead for a new $115 million condensate splitter capable of processing 35,000 barrels of a day at its Channelview Terminal, under a long-term fee-based arrangement with a subsidiary of Singapore-listed Noble Group. The board also approved a second cryogenic processing plant in the Williston Basin, with a capacity of 40 million cubic feet a day (MMcf/d)  that will double its gas processing capabilities in the Bakken. First-quarter earnings are expected on May 2.  TRGP is the #6 ranked Best Buy below $105. NGLS is a Buy below its increased target of $63.

Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP) will report first-quarter earnings on May 9. The unit price fell 2 percent in March. TGP is a Buy up to $46.

UGI (NYSE: UGI) hit an all-time high of $45.49 on March 18 and is up 6.9 percent since it was added to the Growth Portfolio on Feb 3. Director Lon R. Greenberg sold 25,000 shares for an average price of $44.71, netting approximately $1.1 million in early March. Greenberg still owns 370,816 shares valued at about $16.5 million. UGI is a Buy up to $50.

Vanguard Natural Resources (NYSE: VNR) announced a public offering of 7 million 7.625 percent Series B Preferred Units at $25 each. The net proceeds ($169.2 million, after deducting underwriting discounts) will be applied to the repayment of a portion of the company’s debt under its revolving credit facility.  Vanguard’s unit price rose 0.4 percent for the month. The partnership will report first-quarter earnings on April 29. VNR rates a Buy under $28.

Western Refining (NYSE: WNR) will report first-quarter earnings on May 2. Shares rose 6 percent in March. Buy WNR up to $46.

Williams (NYSE: WMB) will report first-quarter earnings on April 30. Shares were flat for March. WMB is the #5 ranked Best Buy under $46. 

Stock Talk

Harold Marder

Harold Marder

My biggest objection to this newsletter is it’s direction toward a buy-and-sell mentality more appropriate for traditional stocks. While one should certainly sell an MLP that has a distribution or financial accounting issue, MLPs are not suitable for trading. The tax consequences of selling are both complicated and penal. Ideally one buys an MLP and holds it until distributions approximate asset cost; or, better, one leaves the MLP to an heir. The key in my view is to buy MLPs with solid business and management, collect distributions till the sun sets. I don’t feel that the newsletter editors share this philosophy.

David

David

Great point! In responding to this, could the editors talk about their confidence level in buying and holding for a long time some of their top recommendations this month?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We’re aware that most subscribers are long-term investors, are familiar with the tax consequences of selling long-term MLP winners, and make our recommendations with those considerations in mind. The holdings in the Aggressive Portfolio are inherently more risky and volatile and are therefore on a shorter leash than the others. But I believe deciding in advance to hold any investment for life, irrespective of performance, is asking for trouble.

David

David

Thanks, Igor. That’s helpful. I was not suggesting holding for life.

But let’s take EPD, for example, as your #1 current recommendation. It is in the Conservative portfolio. So I would assume that, based on current knowledge, you would think that would be one that an investor can buy and hold a long time. Is that a fair statement?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Absolutely. I feel that way about all nine of the Best Buys, but none more so than EPD, obviously.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m not sure what gave you this impression. The fact that we’ve made some buy and sell recommendations? This newsletter has always made some. Are you objecting to the new Buys we’ve recommended, which have handily outperformed the sector, or to the handful of Sells, all of which continued to go lower, precipitously in most cases. Who would have benefited had we not urged a Sell on Eagle Rock in May or Boardwalk in November? How would it have been better had we not recommended ETE and EQM last summer? I’m happy to discuss your concerns about the newsletter’s “direction” but first I need to understand what they are.

David

David

I thought I would post this again as perhaps it has gotten lost in the shuffle of the other replies:

Thanks, Igor. That’s helpful. I was not suggesting holding for life.

But let’s take EPD, for example, as your #1 current recommendation. It is in the Conservative portfolio. So I would assume that, based on current knowledge, you would think that would be one that an investor can buy and hold a long time. Is that a fair statement?

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