A Safe Dividend During Rebuilding Years

With all that’s happened to British telecom behemoth Vodafone in the last year, its stock price has remained fairly unflappable. Yes, its European revenues have softened. Yes, it sold its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless and is investing heavily in its infrastructure. And yes, analysts say it paid too much for a cable operator in Germany and one in Spain.

But as oil calms choppy waters, cash calms investors’ jitters. Vodafone currently has a yield close to 8% based on its last two semiannual dividends, and it has the cash and corporate will to lengthen its history of dividend increases. Chief executive -Vittorio Colao said the company has enough cash to commit to annual growth in dividends, even if they exceed earnings for the next two years.

Analysts’ consensus on earnings per share for the 2015 fiscal year is $1.94, and the projected dividend is $1.92. And they predict earnings per share of $2.09 in fiscal 2016.

Presumably, after two years of subdued earnings, Vodafone will be back on a more stable track. However, investors shouldn’t expect the company to increase its dividend 7%, as it has in the last three years. Analysts expect an annual increase of 3.6% for fiscal 2015 and 3.5% for the following fiscal year.

One reason for the sanguine view of dividends is the cushion from the sale of its Verizon shares last fall for $130 billion in cash and stock. About $83 billion of Verizon stock and cash was distributed to Vodafone shareholders, in the form of a $4.92 special dividend paid earlier this year. The leftovers helped boost Vodafone’s current assets (cash and equivalents) to about $40 billion.

Another reason is that Vodafone has a whopping 436 million wireless customers (only China Mobile has more subscribers) who pay a wireless bill each month.  It owns networks in 21 countries and has partner networks in more than 40 others.

At Home and Abroad

To understand Vodafone’s potential, you need to understand where its customer growth lies. While Europe’s soft economy has hurt earnings, only about 29% of its customers reside there (though they currently account for about two-thirds of the company’s revenues). Most of its other customers are in emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East and the Pacific region, with big shares in India, South Africa and Turkey.

And emerging markets, where Vodafone is well positioned, will be crucial to its growth. Consider Vodafone’s India unit. Service revenue jumped 10.3% in the last quarter year-over-year to about $1.7 billion. In India, only about 13% of people have cell phones, but Vodafone expects that number to reach 40%, or 500 million subscribers, within a few years.

GIE August Vodafone Divs

Phones Are Lifelines

Mobile phones play a vital role in connecting citizens in the developing world. In some African countries, mobile phones have given “unbanked” citizens access to banks—and a safe way for them to keep, save and transfer money—for the first time. Mobile phones are a lifeline to government services and a way to receive disaster alerts.

While growth of new cell-phone customers is incremental in developed markets, it’s accelerating in developing markets. Last year there were about 2.2 billion cell-phone subscribers worldwide; that number is expected to hit 3 billion by the end of this year, according to information from the Groupe Speciale Mobile Association World Congress.

While emerging markets may account for the lion’s share of future growth, Vodafone still must be successful in Europe, where its business has slipped. 

Vodafone’s plan to address this is a $9.6 billion investment project called Project Spring. Project Spring, announced in September 2013, aims to cover the company’s five biggest European markets with high-speed, fourth-generation (4G) wireless service by 2017.

Europe lags Asia and the US in 4G service, which is becoming increasingly coveted by mobile users who want faster access to data and video on smartphones, tablets and other devices.

Project Spring will position Vodafone as the premium service in Europe, allowing it to charge higher rates and put pressure on competitors that don’t have Vodafone’s deep cash reserves and cash-generation capabilities, according to Moody’s.

It’s a bit of a gamble, but because of the solid prospects for growth in developing markets, Project Spring should lead Vodafone back to bigger dividend increases in a couple of years. In the meantime, enjoy its high yield.

Vodafone is a buy up to $39.

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