Banking on Europe’s Growth

The ongoing protests in Hong Kong have disrupted the city’s businesses and seen the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s share value dive by $50 billion. But the political turmoil gives investors the opportunity to pick up strong companies such as HSBC Holdings, which has seen its shares slip 8% since the protests began.

 HSBC pays a 4.8% yield and is a quintessential Global Income Edge stock. It is firmly rooted in developed markets but has important operations in developing markets, and it’s a cash-generating machine that allows it to pay a healthy, sustainable dividend.

 HSBC management is committed to boosting the dividend at a consistent rate. This is despite a major reorganization: Over the past three years it has already cut 40,000 jobs and closed or sold 60 businesses.

 Earlier this year HSBC’s chief executive said that despite the reorganization and the higher capital requirements being set by regulators, “our plan is for the dividend to grow, as it has in each year since 2009.”

 Its current payout ratio of 59% means that the company is able to safely cover its dividend and have earnings left over for growing its business. If the company’s earnings and share price recover to pre–Great Recession levels—it traded around $90 a share then, and has waffled around $50 since—expect management to reward investors with proportionate dividend hikes.

 And although you’ll be investing in a highly diversified industry leader, you won’t pay a premium for its stock: HSBC’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 is on par with its peer average.

 Rich History

The bank was founded in 1865 as the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corp. During most of its history, HSBC’s operations focused on the former British colony and its almost purely capitalistic laissez-faire economy. Hong Kong’s expansive growth and free-market mentality made it one of the “Four Tigers of Asia.”

 In 2000, HSBC began a dramatic global expansion by buying banks in various target countries. Due to its sheer size and resources, HSBC had the ability to move into a market and use its clout to establish strong footholds.

 Today HSBC is the world’s second-largest bank, with roughly $2.7 trillion in assets, ranking behind only the state-run Industrial & Commercial Bank of China. HSBC serves more than 60 million customers from 6,000 offices in 81 countries.

GIE HSBC Div Box

Due to its beginnings in Asia, it has especially large exposure in the region—the world’s fastest growing. Business in Asia and Europe each represent about one-third of the company’s total operations. These two regions are also currently driving most of the bank’s growth. Of the $56 billion loan growth in the most recent quarter, $28 billion came from Asia and $23 billion from Europe.

 European Rebound

Although Europe’s economy has remained relatively stagnant for the past five years, recent events lead us to think a possible recovery will drive HSBC’s business. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will keep interest rates at a historical low of 0.05%, and it will inject cash into member countries by buying $1.25 trillion in private debt and by issuing long-term loans.

 While the ECB says it won’t undertake a full-blown, easy-money policy, $1.25 trillion is real money—and it has hinted at more cash injections. Given its position in Europe, HSBC is poised to benefit from the ECB’s actions, as much of this cash will pass through its doors.

One area of concern for HSBC is some bad business that’s led to big fines and bad publicity. In 2012, HSBC was fined $1.9 billion by the U.S. Justice Department for failing to prevent the use of its branches in Mexico from being used by drug cartels for money laundering.

And just this week HSBC was fined, along with four other of the world’s largest banks, for conspiring to manipulate foreign currency markets. The $618 million fine will take a toll on HSBC’s profits in the short term, but the bank is well positioned to absorb it.

 Fines from past misconducts caused pretax profits to fall 12%, to $4.4 billion in the third quarter, missing analysts’ estimates as higher-than-expected litigation costs of $1.7 billion dragged on earnings. The bank also set aside another $378 million during the period for potential fines. Management believes compliance-related expenses will continue to drive up costs in 2015.

While HSBC expects regulators to impose stricter standards on its operations, the company’s business is still strong. In the third quarter, it reported that underlying revenue, excluding one-item costs, rose 5% to $15.8 billion. Revenues from commercial banking continue to grow, especially in Hong Kong. This will only be amplified once Europe’s economy picks up steam.

 HSBC is a Buy up to $55.

Khoa Nguyen is an analyst at Investing Daily.

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account