Dialing Up Growth in Latin America

While telecommunications may not be the most glamorous business, if a solid and growing dividend excites you, then you love Global Income Edge Conservative Portfolio holding AT&T. And now AT&T comes with some sizzle: It has set its sights on a massive expansion into Latin America, which should keep its dividend growing.

Last year, the company announced the $48.5 billion acquisition of the satellite TV provider DirecTV. The deal will give AT&T access to 20 million of DirecTV’s video subscribers in the U.S.

But the big news is that DirecTV is already one of the biggest cable providers in Latin America. DirecTV will give the company a foothold in Latin America with 18 million subscribers in Central and South America—a region which saw subscribers grow 95% last year.

To further its expansion south, AT&T also acquired Mexican wireless company Grupo Iusacell SA for $2.5 billion in November and Nextel Mexico for $1.9 billion last month.

Mexico presents AT&T with more opportunities to sell its smartphone and mobile Internet services.Nextel Mexico’s 3 million subscribers combined with Iusacell’s 9.2 million will give AT&T roughly 12% of the Mexican market, according to Citigroup analysts. The combined networks of both companies cover roughly 84 million of the country’s total population of 120 million. Although still a small stake, it will let AT&T compete better with billionaire Carlos Slim’s America Movil, which claims 70% of the market.

AT&T has a big ally in its Mexico expansion: the Mexican government. The government wants to reduce America Movil’s monopolistic hold on the telecom market by easing policies to create more foreign competition. This includes the possibility of forcing Movil to divest some of its assets to foreign investors, which would reduce its market share to below 50%.

AT&T’s expansion into Mexico will create the first-ever North American Mobile Service, which will cover more than 400 million consumers and businesses in Mexico and the U.S. AT&T chairman and chief executive officer Randall Stephenson said: “It won’t matter which country you’re in or which country you’re calling—it will all be one network, one customer experience.”

After the dust has cleared, the company may become the first multinational telecom to cover the Western Hemisphere.

In addition, the bigger opportunity for AT&T could be in Brazil, according to Amy Young, an analyst with Macquarie Securities. Young says that DirecTV is developing satellite-TV service in Brazil, which would lead to wireless-phone service to the growing middle class in that country.GIE T graphic

Management also expects TV and broadband revenues to surpass its consumer wireless revenues. The company said that most of its revenues will come from business accounts (wireline and wireless), then TV and broadband in the U.S., then consumer wireless in the U.S., and finally international wireless. AT&T said it will provide an outlook for 2015 after it completes the acquisition of DirecTV by the second quarter of 2015.

The bottom-line impact of all this isn’t yet clear. But an increase in cash flow will improve its ability to pay its generous dividend.

Safe and Generous

The country’s second-largest telecom offers an extremely safe and generous 5.4% dividend. With AT&T, you shouldn’t expect huge payout hikes, but the company has provided investors with consistent dividend growth of at least 2.2% annually for the past 10 years. It also has a low beta of 0.40, which means it is 60% less volatile than the market average.

AT&T is making strong moves to increase investor value. In 2014, it paid $11 billion to investors through dividends and share repurchases. And it recently announced that it will cut capital spending this year to $18 billion from $21 billion in 2014, which will limit increases in debt. Although the figure is still enormous, it’s about $2 billion less than the $20 billion average AT&T’s been spending in the past few years.

With the wireless market in the U.S. near complete saturation, AT&T’s business has been eroded slightly by aggressive competition from T-Mobile and Sprint. However, with AT&T’s recent acquisitions, investors know that the company isn’t sitting still, letting its U.S. profits be diminished by smaller players.

Due to high programming costs, AT&T’s video business hasn’t been profitable, but management believes adding DirecTV will give it a thriving business to sell into. This will also allow it to bundle its traditional wireless services with DirecTV’s offerings to sell service packages to its customers. AT&T is a Buy under $38.

 

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