As Is Ever So on the Road

Transurban Group isn’t the best-performing stock on the Australian Securities Exchange this year, or over the past five years, or during our holding period, which began in February 2012.

What it is, as you can see from the accompanying chart, “Roads Much Traveled,” is a consistent performer on the market, even accounting for the Australian dollar’s depreciation versus the U.S. dollar, as our graphic does, and as an income generator, as a 10.7% five-year dividend growth rate attests.

The toll-road operator, with assets in Australia and the U1504_ae_pu_gr_audusd.S., has outperformed both the S&P/ASX 200 index and the S&P 500 index thus far in 2015, with a U.S. dollar total return of 8.4% versus 4.8% and 1.4%, respectively. And over the five years ended in April, its 106.9% gain beats the local index (23.8%) by a wide margin and the global equity benchmark handily (93.4%).

Since we added it to the Portfolio, Transurban (ASX: TCL, OTC: TRAUF) has posted a U.S. dollar return of 49.8% versus 16.7% for the S&P/ASX 200 and 65.4% for the S&P 500.

Financial and operating results, including fiscal 2015 third-quarter revenue and traffic data, continue to support its market position. And the data provide further evidence that this is a high-quality business that’s well positioned for strong growth well down the road.

Management reported a 41.6% increase in proportional toll revenue for the three months ended March 31, as the acquisitions of the Cross City Tunnel in Sydney and Queensland Motorways as well as strong organic traffic growth boosted results.

Traffic was up across all of its road networks, with Sydney growing by 8.1%, helped by recent upgrades to the M2 and M5 motorways. Melbourne traffic grew by 4.2%, while Brisbane was up 3.5%.

In Northern Virginia, the 95 Express Lanes project completed its first full quarter of operations. Traffic and revenue results for the quarter continue to perform well against expectations despite significant weather events in Northern Virginia.1504_ae_pu_gr_tcl

The picture here keeps getting better and better, with organic growth augmented by asset acquisitions and new projects funded on favorable terms. Transurban, which is yielding 3.9%, is a Buy under USD7.50.

Aggressive Update

Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s (London: RDSA, NYSE: RDS/A) acquisition of BG Group PLC (London: BG/, OTC: BRGXF, ADR: BRGYY) is the first of what will likely be many deals in the global oil and gas industry in the aftermath of crude’s collapse.

Activity is likely to include AE Portfolio Aggressive Holdings Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEF, ADR: WOPEY) and Oil Search Ltd. (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY).

Woodside, cashed-up and sporting a strong balance sheet, will continue to look for opportunities after buying Apache Corp.’s (NYSE: APA) stakes in the Australian Wheatstone and Canadian Kitimat LNG projects.

Texas-based, Papua New Guinea–focused InterOil Corp. (NYSE: IOC), which is in the early stages of developing the promising Antelope LNG project with operator Total SA (France: FP, NYSE: TOT), is one obvious potential target for Woodside.1504_ae_pu_gr_osh

First-quarter sales revenue declined by 20.1% on lower realized prices, while production was down 6.8% due to the impact of cyclones. Management reiterated its full-year production guidance of 86 to 94 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Woodside Petroleum, which is yielding 8.5%, is a Buy under USD42.

Another possible target for Woodside is Oil Search, whose production, cash flow and dividend have been juiced by the prolific Papua New Guinea LNG project.

Oil Search’s first-quarter numbers will likely be hurt by low crude oil prices, with which LNG prices are closely correlated, but its long-term prospects remain bright. The expansion of PNG LNG, on hold due to the commodity downturn, is still very likely.

Oil Search is also an attractive target for PNG LNG project operator Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). Oil Search, its stepped-up dividend now generating a yield of 1.6%, is a Buy under USD9.

M&A will certainly heat up in industries related to oil and gas production.

Indeed, the share price of energy and resources service provider WorleyParsons Ltd. (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY) surged nearly 20% on heavy volume this week, as speculation about a takeover bid mounts.

WorleyParsons remains a Hold.

Conservative Update

In last month’s Sector Spotlight feature identifying the stock as one of our Best Buys for new money, we noted that M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd. (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF) would likely settle into a period of debt reduction as it continued to integrate the several acquisitions it completed over the past couple of years.

Well, opportunity intervened, and M2 has made another strong acquisition.

On April 12, M2 announced a deal to buy CallPlus Group and its affiliate 2Talk Ltd. for AUD245 million. M2 will fund the deal and refinance existing debt through new multi-year loan facilities, though overall leverage will remain very reasonable for a company of its size.

CallPlus is New Zealand’s third-largest provider of broadband and fixed voice services. It gives M2 a strong foothold in New Zealand, where it targets the same markets as M2 does in Australia.

CallPlus brings more than 400,000 postpaid services in operation. It holds 18% of the New Zealand broadband market, with a realistic path to 25%.

Revenue, with splits similar to M2 (67% consumer-related, 28% business, 5% wholesale), has grown at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% over the past three years. EBITDA growth has averaged 38.3%.

M2 management expects the deal to be approximately 15% accretive to fiscal 2016 underlying EPS.

M2 will benefit from CallPlus’s strong organic growth potential due to the impact of the rollout of the Ultra-Fast Broadband network, New Zealand’s equivalent of a national broadband network, and the potential of electric power–telecommunications services bundling.

This is yet another strong strategic acquisition by M2, as CallPlus opens up new organic and inorganic growth opportunities that will extend the acquirer’s impressive track record of double-digit top- and bottom-line and dividend growth.

The stock has posted a 12% rally on the Australian Securities Exchange since the March issue was published, which translates to 14% for U.S. investors given the appreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month.

But it’s still priced below our buy-under target and represents good value at approximately 16 times forecast fiscal 2016 earnings, with a three-year estimated growth rate of 15%.

M2 Telecom is a Buy under USD9.

GPT Group (ASX: GPT, OTC: GPTGF) is looking for a new CEO following Michael Cameron’s appointment as chief executive of full-service financial firm Suncorp Group Ltd. (ASX: SUN, OTC: SNMYF, ADR: SNMCY).

GPT’s share price bounced on news of Cameron’s departure, as investors and analysts see the leadership transition making Australia’s oldest listed REIT more vulnerable to a takeover in a year when more mergers and acquisitions are expected.

GPT’s biggest investor, superannuation fund UniSuper (11.4%), acknowledged that the change in leadership may make the REIT a takeover target.

“The fact of the matter is that M&A activity is heating up; we wouldn’t be surprised if a predator actually saw this as an opening,” said UniSuper chief investment officer John Pearce.

Dexus Property Group (ASX: DXS, OTC: DXSPF) has previously been flagged as a potential bidder for GPT, though CEO Darren Steinberg told The Australian that his company has no interest in a transaction with GPT and would instead focus on its current strategy to “deliver solid returns for our unit holders.”

GPT’s search for Cameron’s replacement will likely be focused on a pretty strong set of internal candidates, people who were intimately involved as Cameron led the REIT’s recovery from the Great Financial Crisis.

GPT Group remains a Buy under USD4.

APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF) is in talks with Santos Ltd. (ASX: STO, OTC: STOSF, ADR: SSLTY) on a potential new pipeline to transport coal-seam gas in New South Wales, as it covers all bases to ensure it’s involved in bringing much-needed energy to the state’s end users.

The pipeline would be about 200 kilometers long and transport gas from Santos’s proposed AUD2 billion Narrabri project to Tamworth to join the existing APA pipeline grid in NSW.

APA is also participating in the Northern Territory government process to build a gas pipeline to connect the NT to the eastern grid.

The competition for the AUD900 million to AUD1.3 billion project also includes fellow Conservative Holding DUET Group (ASX: DUE, OTC: DUETF).

Final bids are due in September.

APA, which is also nearing completion of its capacity expansion project to bring gas north from Victoria to help address east coast supply shortages, continues to add fee-based assets that support dividend growth.

APA, currently yielding 3.9%, is a Buy under USD7.

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