A Vision of Big Dividends

I don’t have much of an eye for fashion. At 34 years old, I’m often told I look like Mr. Rogers on downers—and my eyewear generally reflects that appearance. My 90-year-old grandfather and I sometimes switch glasses, and I don’t notice until I realize the world looks even more distorted than usual, which is probably saying something in an election year. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’m cheap, but then, maybe I am.

I’m an outlier, though, and here’s the proof: The global eyewear market (which includes frames, contact lenses and sunglasses) is currently worth roughly $90 billion and expected to grow to $140 billion by 2020. Premium frames and sunglasses will account for roughly a third of that, or about $13 billion in the current market.

luxottica graphicWith just under $10.2 billion in revenue last year, Italy’s Luxottica is far and away the leader in the premium eyewear segment, with its closest competitor only bringing in about $2 billion. In addition to its own well-known brands such as Ray-Ban, Oakley, REVO and Vogue, Luxottica (NYSE: LUX) also holds licenses to a number of others such as Coach, Prada, Polo Ralph Lauren and Brooks Brothers.

If, like me, those names don’t mean much to you other than a label on a product, you might be more familiar with Luxottica’s retail outlets. The company has more than 4,500 stores in North America including Sunglass Hut, Pearle Vision and LensCrafters, as well as Sears Optical and Target Optical locations. It also has retail stores throughout Asia and South America, as well as Australia and Israel.

Soup to Nuts

Aside from its global reach and high-end brands, the eyewear maker is unusual because it’s almost totally vertically integrated. From frame design and lens-finishing to point-of-sale, about the only part of the process Luxottica doesn’t manage is making lenses. It has even taken that a step further, by acquiring a provider of vision care plans and becoming one of the largest providers of managed vision care through EyeMed. Overall, there’s almost no combination of frames, lenses and lens treatments that Luxottica can’t accommodate, making it extremely tough for new competitors to gain a market foothold.

Given the company’s dominance of the premium eyewear market, its strong earnings growth comes as a pleasant surprise. Revenue grew nearly 9% annually over the past decade, while earnings-per-share growth averaged about 7.6% per year.

That growth pace should pick up in the coming years.  Says Massimo Vian, co-chief executive of Luxottica: “Expansion into market areas, especially in emerging markets, has been the biggest driver of our growth.” And the company has only begun to scratch the surface of those markets, as more than 75% of sales still come from North America and Europe. But a growing middle class in many emerging market countries, coupled with higher education levels and longer life expectancies, is driving demand for prescription glasses there.

Last year, sales grew 17% (though only about 5.5% when accounting for the impact of exchange rates), with Europe up 7.8% and emerging markets up 14.5%. Although earnings won’t be released until March 1 because of how the company’s fiscal year falls, earnings per share are expected to rise from $1.63 in the prior year to $2.05 for fiscal 2015, then hit $2.30 in fiscal 2016.

Clear Vision

Fittingly for an eyewear maker, Luxottica has also given us a pretty clear vision of its future, laying out its plans for 2016 and beyond. This year, the company is slated to begin a $1.1 billion five-year investment plan designed to increase efficiency, as well as expand and improve its stores. Luxottica will devote more resources to online sales, an area that was somewhat neglected over the past few years, though e-commerce sales did grow more than 50% in calendar 2015. Overall, sales should rise by mid-to-high single digits, with earnings growing faster than revenue thanks to improved efficiencies.

That steady growth in earnings was behind some generous dividend increases. The company’s payout grew 25.7% per year over the past five years, and the dividend yield is currently 2.9%. Because Luxottica had a fairly consistent payout ratio of about 50% over the past several years, we can expect that growth to continue, though the ultimate value of what U.S. investors collect will depend on exchange rates at the time.

Another major recession could ding the company’s shares, especially if that recession were to emerge here in North America. Still, Luxottica was relatively unfazed by the last recession, when the company’s earnings and revenue dipped temporarily. The truth is if you need eyeglasses, you need eyeglasses, and consumers at the top end of the market are willing to pay to keep up appearances.

Given the company’s expected growth, I might just pay more attention to appearances myself. I don’t think anyone would call me Mr. Rogers if I sported a pair of Versace specs, and Luxottica’s dividends might just cover them.

Buy Luxottica under $70.

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