U.S. Stocks Hit the Trifecta

When the going got tough for global income investors, the tough bought American and profited.

Over the past six months our U.S. domestic holdings posted impressive numbers and hands down outperformed our international holdings in each of our portfolios.

The share price for telecom giant AT&T jumped almost 16% since last October, and utility Southern Company popped 17% since then. Then there was Phillip Morris, which increased 21%, and death care stock Hillenbrand, up 13%.

But towering above them all was REIT Portfolio holding Realty Income Corp. (NYSE: O), which turned in a whopping 33% in gains.  

Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 international index was down 7% over the same period, and many European and Asian holdings were hammered by fears of declining global growth and in many cases panic selling. 

page 1 graphicWe continue to believe Europe is on the path to recovery and our holdings there will make a larger contribution as time goes by. But for now U.S. stocks are carrying the load in our global diversification strategy. One key reason: Dropping U.S. unemployment, together with low prices at the gas pump, boosted consumer spending. 

So in this issue we’re highlighting some of our domestic stars that not only have done well but still have room to run. By some growth investor standards, the performance of our top five might seem pedestrian. But when you consider their rich dividends and low risk, these stocks’ double-digit returns are the third leg of a performance trifecta.

Here are updates on our top five holdings’ performance from the time that we included them in our portfolios. 

If this were an Olympic event, a gold medal would go to top performer U.S. real estate investment trust Realty Income Corp. We added it in April of last year, and Realty has appreciated almost 20% since. My colleague, Khoa Nguyen, profiles Realty Income, our #3 Best Buy REIT Portfolio holding, on page 4.  Including Realty Income’s 4.10% dividend yield, the company delivered a total return of 24%.

Buy Realty Income up to $55.

Another gold medal belongs to utility stalwart Southern Co. (NYSE: SO), which has been in the portfolio since Global Income Edge launched in August 2014. The stock is up 14.7% since our first issue. Southern is one of the nation’s most solid regulated utilities, and one of the few that has the balance sheet to build new power plants to support new growth and future earnings.

Southern (Conservative Portfolio #2 Best Buy) is the world’s 16th largest utility company and the fourth largest in the United States, operating in Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Mississippi. The company produces energy through coal, nuclear, oil and gas, and hydro resources.

And it had a banner year, especially after excluding charges related to cost overruns on its new power plant. Minus those charges, Southern earned $403 million, or 44 cents per share, during the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with $343 million, or 38 cents per share, during the fourth quarter of 2014.

For the full year 2015, excluding the aforementioned items, Southern earned $2.63 billion, or $2.89 per share, compared with earnings of $2.52 billion, or $2.80 per share, for the same period in 2014. Yielding 4.46%, Southern delivered a total return of 19.13%.

Buy Southern Co. up to $55

Meanwhile, Phillip Morris (NYSE: PM), which was added in January 2015, appreciated 15.6%. The firm kept net profit margins in the 25% range over the past eight quarters, dipping to 19% only in the last quarter.

In that same quarter earnings per share of 81 cents fell in line with analyst estimates, though earnings slipped 21.4% from fourth quarter 2014 because of a decline in sales. Excluding damaging currency effects, earnings declined 3.9% year-over-year.

Some analysts think the stock began rallying recently after the dollar depreciated somewhat against the euro and yen, which should give the firm a boost in the next quarter. The company’s sales also are improving. Phillip Morris has a 4.32% dividend yield and returned 19.93%.

Buy Phillip Morris up to $90.

Telecom giant AT&T (NYSE: T), which has been in our portfolio since we launched Global Income Edge, is up almost 10%. AT&T may be gigantic (its market capitalization is $233 billion), but it is also stable, cash rich and moving into profitable new businesses. As we reported in the last issue, the telecom is on track to become a broadband and on-demand juggernaut with its recent acquisition of DirecTV, which generated $42 billion in the most recent quarter, a nearly 22% increase year-over year. With a dividend yield of 5%, AT&T delivered a total return of 15%.

Buy AT&T up to $38. 

And finally, #3 Best Buy Aggressive Portfolio Holding Hillenbrand’s stock has been on a tear.  Analysts predict the firm will post $0.57 earnings per share when it reports financials on May 9, up 16.3% or 8 cents from last year’s 48 cents. Its stock is up 13.9% since we added it in October.

Although Hillenbrand had mixed results last quarter, this is a stable business overall. Under its 100-year-old Batesville brand, the company is the dominant casket and funeral services provider in the U.S. but has evolved far beyond funeral services, which contribute to its stability and cash flow.

Even though cheaper cremation services have cut somewhat into its dominant casket business, which was down 4% last quarter, we believe consolidation in the industry, as well as data from the National Center for Health Statistics that show the death rate rising at a rate of 1% annually, will help keep earnings strong.

Beyond funeral services, Hillenbrand also has bought process equipment companies that sell their equipment internationally. Presently the global plastics market is its largest unit in this business, followed by agriculture.

The process equipment part of its business eclipsed the funeral business in recent years and now generates two thirds of Hillenbrand revenue.

Those products lines also benefit from demographic trends: growing populations, a rapidly expanding middle class and rising demand for food and energy.

Yielding 2.8%, Hillenbrand delivered a total return of 16.73% since October.

Buy Hillenbrand up to $38.

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