Electing to Collect

The last time MLPs were reporting quarterly results, oil was near $40 a barrel, which as everyone knows is a signpost on the way to $30. Now it’s at $50, which is almost as good as $60 in the eyes of many.

We’ll soon hear how the near future looks to the managers of partnerships reporting third-quarter results. I remain hopeful that the outlooks will on the whole prove a bit sunnier than Kinder Morgan’s kickoff accounting this week.

There’s not much suspense about the actual cash flow numbers, which will be steady, in line with the Q3 average of  $45 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate and about $2.85/MMBtu for natural gas. More interesting will be any color on producer spending plans and the trends in volumes now that OPEC has signaled a production cut.

The Alerian MLP Index has been idling in a narrow range now going on five months, a constructive if frustrating base-building process after the violent snap-back rally from the winter lows. Over the last three months the Alerian is down 3% versus and 11% gain for XOP, the ETF broadly representative of the domestic oil and gas producers.

The higher valuations of producers should accommodate more spending and drilling, eventually pumping higher production volumes through the midstream pipes.  But the key word in the last sentence is “eventually.”

Three months ago, I wrote  that “We’d likely need to see significantly higher energy prices to get the entire midstream sector running once again.” So far, that’s been proven right. But the steady recent holding pattern of most MLPs implies limited downside before the next stage of the yield chase.

Other hopeful signs include the recent draws on oil inventories at a time of year when they typically build and the fact that crude held up amid the recent rush by shale producers to lock in the modestly higher futures prices.

While the Alerian has been treading water, leading crude pipeline operator Plains All American (NYSE: PAA) is up 13% over the last month. Few MLPs have more to gain from higher oil prices.

Marcellus gas gatherers Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM), CONE Midstream Partners (NYSE: CNNX) and Rice Midstream Partners (NYSE: RMP) have posted comparable gains in the last month. AM and CNNX have been among  our better portfolio performers of late, while Rice Midstream is a new recommendation, the first of four profiled in this issue.

A highly complementary acquisition by its sponsor last month sealed the deal for me. But subscriber Ted Duncan had this one lined up much earlier, and I’m grateful for his prods and insights.

Other subscribers have asked from time to time about Green Plains Partners (NYSE: GPP), an ethanol logistics MLP that went public a year ago. It continues to offer an attractive yield backed by solid financials and fundamentals. And while the ethanol business has been a boom-or-bust one in the past, it has matured to the point where GPP’s cash flow and growth are sustainable. GPP is this month’s second pick.

CrossAmerica Partners (NYSE: CAPL) also offers a lofty yield and relatively limited commodity exposure as a wholesale gasoline distributor. It’s a consolidator in a fragmented space, wringing out administrative costs from the stations it acquires and leasing them out to independent operators. That limits the retail margin risk while retaining the steadier distribution business. I profile it here.

Our fourth and final pick this month is ETRACS 2xMonthly Leveraged S&P MLP Index ETN Series B (NYSE: MLPZ). Leverage can kill, as some of us were reminded painfully last year with a different iteration of this very security. But this is a very different time for MLPs, and if you believe as I do that the near-term downside is modest, then doubling down on the next few monthly moves and the sector’s yield should prove appealing for the aggressive speculators among us.

 

Portfolio Update

  • Rice Midstream Partners (NYSE: RMP) added to Growth Portfolio. Buy below $27
  • Green Plains Partners (NYSE: GPP) added to Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below  $24
  • CrossAmerica Partners (NYSE: CAPL) added to Growth Portfolio. Buy below $33
  • ETRACS 2xMonthly Leveraged S&P MLP Index ETN Series B (NYSE: MLPZ) added to Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below $60.

 

 

 

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