What to Sell, What to Hold

I will be following the remaining stocks in the Growth Stock Strategist portfolio through March 15, 2017, and will give monthly updates or alerts when I believe immediate action should be taken. In the meantime, here is my take on all the GSS stocks.

Apogee Enterprises

Apogee (NSDQ: APOG) is up 15% since my March recommendation. While I am excited about the company’s prospects, recent softness in architectural building indices could signal a temporary deceleration in revenue growth. Subscribers who own this stock should keep a close eye on the company’s backlog, which declined for the first time in many quarters in August. Management attributed the decline to the timing of new projects entering and exiting the pipeline, a credible excuse but still worth watching. Apogee will report its next quarter mid-December.

Cray

My biggest loser has been Cray (NSDQ: CRAY), down 40% since my recommendation. After giving the company the benefit of the doubt after one missed quarter, Cray delivered another disappointing quarter Nov. 7. Management has lost credibility after missing two quarters when it promised a jump in orders. The company still has $3.60 per share in cash and could see a sharp turnaround once delayed orders start to flow through, but I don’t see an imminent improvement. I recommend selling Cray.

Cynosure

Despite beating revenue estimates by $5 million and earnings by 3 cents per share on Oct.25, Cynosure’s (NSDQ: CYNO) stock dropped precipitously and is down 16% since my September recommendation. The company does not offer formal guidance but was upbeat on future growth—management actually said the momentum was improving its products. The only issue with the quarter was a drop in a balance sheet account called deferred revenue, which represents payments for pre-orders for systems that haven’t been delivered yet. The stock trades at 24 times its 2017 earnings-per-share estimate of $1.80, a low valuation for a company with earnings growing 40%. The stock bounced a bit coincident with meetings management had with investors, an encouraging sign. I will keep subscribers up-to-date on developments.

Ethan Allen

Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH) has been another good stock for Growth Stock Strategist, rising 17% since March. After pre-announcing weak results from its first quarter (ending September) on Oct. 18, Ethan Allen gave investors more information Oct. 26 at its Analysts’ Day. Most of the excitement swirled around the Disney-branded children’s furniture launch slated for Nov. 18 (Mickey Mouse’s birthday, of course). The full benefit of Ethan Allen’s introduction of revamped modern furniture sets has yet to be seen in earnings. The recent softness in earnings due to higher advertising expenses bears watching. Investors could give the company a break for one quarter, but if earnings growth does not materialize then, the stock will likely drift lower. So now is a good time to book our gains and sell Ethan Allen.

Exactech

Currently our biggest winner, Exactech (NSDQ: EXAC) is up a resounding 38% since March due to excitement over its Guided Personal Surgery orthopedic tools. I have rated this stock “hold” since March in the hope that new products would accelerate earnings growth and allow me to move it up to a “buy.” To date, earnings growth has never been high enough for me to justify a “buy” rating. On Oct. 31, the company lowered fourth-quarter earnings estimates from 35 cents to 32 cents per share and reported an in-line quarter. The stock has been treading water since July, and I don’t see an impetus to get it moving higher. So let’s take our profits and sell Exactech.

Gentex

Gentex (NSDQ: GNTX) has been rated “hold” since March. The supplier of automatic dimming and camera rearview mirrors has been unable to grow earnings much more than 12% yet trades with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14. If earnings growth were accelerating, Gentex could be an interesting stock, but analysts expect just 8% earnings growth in 2017. Without new products to introduce, the company’s fortune is tied to the number of new cars produced each year. After watching this stock for nine months, and booking a 19% gain, I think it’s time to sell Gentex.

Installed Building Products

This stock is up 16% since our recommendation in early June. Installed Building Products (NYSE: IBP) reported earnings when it acquired Alpha Insulation and Waterproofing, its first entry into the commercial market. Although I believe the addition of the commercial business diversifies Installed’s dependence on residential housing, it may signal a slower growth in residential building. The new business is more profitable than the base residential model but does introduce an element of risk. Commercial-build orders have significantly longer lead times and can result in lumpy quarterly revenue depending on the size of the projects. Installed currently generates just 11% of its revenue from commercial customers, who demand elevated levels of service and expertise, areas in which Alpha excels. But given the other areas of uncertainty, let’s sell Installed Building Products.

Integrated Device Technology

This is one of the two Growth Stock Strategist stocks I am moving over to the Profit Catalyst portfolio. Although Integrated (NSDQ: IDTI) is up 20% since my recommendation last March, I am still excited about its prospects. The benefits from its December 2015 purchase of ZMDI are just starting to show up in its numbers. Enthusiasm for sensors that power smart cars shows no sign of abating. With ZMDI under its wing, the company has another production facility qualified to supply tier one auto manufacturers. Integrated reported an in-line quarter Oct. 31, but investors picked up on management’s bullishness over the auto business. Revenue from this sector is expected to grow 15% next quarter as the company begins to recognize revenue from winning auto designs that feature Integrated’s products.

Omnova

Omnova (NYSE: OMN) is flat from my August $9.10 purchase price. After a nerve-wracking drop to $7.00 on a missed number, the stock has rebounded smartly. The quarter suffered from delays by retail customers, including one with a large order. I still like the dynamics of the specialty chemical markets, which feature customers hungry for raw materials that permit higher pricing for products with superior performance and durability. Another bullish sign is Director James Mitarotonda’s purchase of 38,000 shares at $8.11 per share.

U.S. Concrete

This is the second stock moving over to the Profit Catalyst portfolio. U.S. Concrete (NSDQ: USCR) is positioned to benefit from the LaGuardia Airport rebuild and from New Jersey’s recently approved $16 billion infrastructure fund. Both projects are the catalysts the stock needs to move higher. Earnings are excruciatingly sensitive to weather, particularly excessive rain, which delays concrete deliveries, but I believe most investors can handle these weather-related earning’s blips. The stock is up 15% in the month that I’ve recommended it, and I expect it to move even higher as these projects feed into earnings.

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