Amid all the noise that surrounded the U.S. presidential election, at least one key message was very clear: Donald Trump has promised to create jobs for Americans.

The newly elected president has vowed to add 25 million new jobs over the next decade, or 2.5 million jobs per year. The U.S. economy currently adds about 2 million jobs per year, which means Trump’s policies would have to create another 500,000 jobs per year in order to hit his target.

How will this be done? One approach that has gotten a lot of attention is the renegotiation or cancellation of trade agreements that have been blamed for the loss of 6 million manufacturing jobs over the past 25 years. 

The US$762 billion trade deficit (that is exports of goods minus imports) that the U.S. recorded in 2015 was a big factor behind Trump’s insistence that the U.S. should withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (involving 12 countries representing 40% of global gross domestic product) and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA, which includes the U.S., Canada, and Mexico).

The countries with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits are listed in the graph below, which shows data as of 2015. By far, the U.S. has the biggest trade deficit with China, at US$366 billion, followed by Germany, Japan, and Mexico. Together, these four countries account for more than 70% of the trade deficit and would undoubtedly be prime targets if Trump wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Unsurprisingly, Wilbur Ross, Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, said in his confirmation hearings that he considers China to be the most protectionist among the major economies, and that he will seek to reduce China’s high barriers to trade. For his part, Trump has previously threatened to instate punitive tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S.

Despite its yawning trade deficit, the U.S. is also an important provider of services to its global trading partners and enjoyed a US$262 billion surplus in 2015 on the services account (exports of services minus imports of services). For most of the top-10 countries with which it has trade deficits, the U.S. has a considerable services account surplus, though this has not been nearly enough to turn the overall trade deficit into a surplus.

In his confirmation hearings, Ross also stated that the renegotiation of NAFTA will be a high priority for the new administration. The U.S. has a US$58 billion trade and services deficit with Mexico and a US$7 billion surplus with Canada. Clearly, the country’s deficit with Mexico will be the primary focus during any NAFTA renegotiation.

Regarding Canada, it’s important to delve a bit deeper into the trade relationship between the two countries. Canada and the U.S. share a 5,500-mile border that’s crossed by an average of 400,000 people and $2 billion worth of trade daily.

In fact, The two countries have the world’s largest trading relationship, with $670 billion worth of goods and services exchanged in 2015. Canada is the second-largest trading partner for the U.S., while the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner.

Trade ties between the two countries have been further fostered by the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (1988) and NAFTA (1993), which allow most goods and services to cross the border without duties. Over the past 20 years, U.S. exports to Canada increased by 179%, while U.S. imports from Canada are up 165%.

Canada is the leading export destination for 35 U.S. states, while 22 states count Canada as their largest import trading partner. The U.S. Commerce Department estimates that export activity to Canada supports 1.7 million U.S. jobs, and presumably such trade exerts a similar influence on the Canadian job market.

Our conclusion, therefore, is that the U.S. will be understandably keen to renegotiate trade agreements with China, Germany, Japan, and Mexico, but it will probably be very careful not to disturb its trade relationship with Canada given how little it would gain from doing so.