Portfolio Update

Canadian utility giant Fortis Inc. (TSX: FTS, NYSE: FTS) reported strong fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share up 25% from a year ago, while the dividend was 7% higher.

Note that the company now has a listing on the NYSE, which means the stock offers far greater liquidity than the former OTC listing.

Operating results from the various divisions were generally sound. Profits from regulated utilities in Canada grew 13%, while U.S. and Caribbean utilities (excluding the recently acquired ITC) increased profits by 14%.

A key focus for Fortis during 2016 was the completion of the US$11.3 billion acquisition of ITC, the U.S. Midwest transmission business. ITC made a robust contribution of C$81 million to profits during the year’s final quarter, and management expects the transaction to make a positive contribution to earnings per share in 2017.

The company’s balance sheet remains in good condition, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 57%.

In early March, Fortis issued C$500 million worth of new shares. This action will help reduce the debt ratio, while also placating Standard & Poor’s, which had shifted to a negative outlook on Fortis’ “A-” credit rating after the ITC deal was announced. The credit rater later lifted its outlook back to “stable.”

The secondary issuance will increase shares outstanding by 3%, which will dilute profits. Thankfully, the company says it does not need to issue any more shares over the next five years to fund its capital program.

Fortis intends to grow its dividend 6% annually for the foreseeable future, and that is supported, in our view, by strong cash flow and reasonable leverage. Shares of Fortis currently yield 3.8%, and we estimate the stock’s fair value at C$45, or US$34.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD, NYSE: TD) reported very good results for the first quarter of its 2017 financial year, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 13% year over year. The dividend per share was increased by 9%.

Overall, the bank performed well, with higher net interest income and trading profits, while provisions for credit losses saw a slight decrease.

Canada Retail banking, the main contributor to profits, reported slightly higher net income boosted by higher interest income and better lending margins. This has become a low-growth business, though with a 42% return on equity, it remains highly profitable.

The U.S. Retail banking operation had another strong quarter, with profits in U.S. dollar terms improving by 10% as a result of higher loan volumes partly offset by slightly lower lending margins.

At the same time, we’re somewhat concerned about the substantial increase in provisions for credit losses, especially on credit card and auto loans, so we’ll be monitoring this situation closely.

The profitability of TD’s U.S. operations remains substantially lower than its Canadian division. While progress has been evident over the past several quarters, more work still needs to be done to narrow the gap.

Looking ahead, management forecasts that earnings per share while rise by 7% to 10% this year.

However, the country’s housing bubble remains a key risk for Canadian banks. Fortunately, TD is relatively well positioned compared to its peers, with a conservatively managed mortgage book of which 50% is insured.

TD is currently our only holding among the Canadian banks. And with a 2017 forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times and a forward yield of 3.4%, we intend to remain shareholders. We estimate Toronto-Dominion’s fair value at C$67, or US$50.

Earnings Season Checklist

We’re nearing the end of earnings season for the calendar fourth quarter. The table below lists the date for each company’s earnings release, as well as the expected dividend. Please note that some dates have yet to be confirmed and are, therefore, based on the timing of past reports. Rows that have been highlighted green indicate companies that have already reported results.

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account