Gold and Gold Stocks Still Our Most Negative
By far, the gold and gold stocks indicators are our most bearish indicators right now.
Our gold stocks indicator has actually become even more bearish, and our VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) December 23 put is still a “buy” for readers who may have missed the original Trade Alert.
Our bond indicator remains slightly bullish. Inflation expectations, which jumped after the November election, have tapered off a little recently as it now appears unlikely that President Trump’s economic promises—which implied faster growth and higher inflation—will be implemented anytime soon. The bond market has performed pretty well this month, affirmed by our bond indicator’s positive reading lately.
Our dollar indicator has retreated over the past week into neutral territory, while our oil and oil stocks indicators are still “-1.” The latter two were actually right on the borderline between “0” and “-1” last week, but this week they are firmly in “-1” territory, though still not at “-2.” Stocks meanwhile, remain neutral, without strong bias one way or another.
We have remained disciplined and required a strong signal threshold before pulling the trigger on trades. The discipline has paid off in strong trading results, but it also resulted in a relatively small number of trades. We are exploring ways of adjusting our indicator signal criteria to produce more tradeable signals. Stay tuned.