Boringly Steady

This week, Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) reported a 7.5 percent year-over-year revenue increase in the second quarter was the best growth rate in eight years. Earnings per share (adjusted for non-recurring items) of $0.61 was a 10.9 percent improvement over the second quarter of 2016.

Average yield increased 2.5 percent, volume increased 1.9 percent, and core price increased 4.1 percent. Average yield is the percent revenue growth from the change in average price per unit of service, and core price is the increases in price and fees to its customers, excluding fuel recovery and net of price decreases to retain customers. Basically, the higher these numbers, the better. Moreover, the company noted that volume growth was broad based.

Republic is in the beginning of a process of transitioning its contracts to a pricing model where it bases its annual price adjustment on a waste-related index or a fixed-rate increase of 3 percent or greater rather than on the Consumer Price Index. The former is typically higher than the latter, which helps to boost the yield. Republic reports that approximately $440 million in annual revenue (about 5 percent of the company’s overall annual revenue) has transitioned over to the new contract.

Free cash flow totaled $358 million during the quarter, more than double the total from a year ago. During the quarter the company returned about $247 million in total to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. In regards to the dividend, the company announced an 8 percent increase to the quarterly payout to $0.345 per share, or $1.38 per share per year.

The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance, raising it from a range of $2.32 to $2.36 to $2.36 to $2.39 (midpoint $2.375). The new guidance, however, was slightly below The Street’s expectations, explaining today’s share price decline. Analysts expected $2.39 on average.

Overall, a solid quarter from a solid company. Barring some major change in the company’s business, Republic will never be confused for a growth stock. However, although the waste business may sound boring, it’s also boringly steady and generates plenty of cash flow. That makes Republic a reliable dividend payer. Its dividend payout has increased at an annual rate of about 7 percent over the past 3 years. We can probably expect the rate of increase to slow into the mid-single-digit range, in the 5 or 6 percent range. After all, as the dividend increases, it takes a greater and greater increase in dollar terms to keep the percentage increase the same. But Republic offers one of the more dependably growing dividends available for investors.

We like what we have seen this year from the company. We have upped the suggested buy-up-to price for RSG to $62. We rate it still a “hold” at the current price, but the higher suggested buy-up-to price means that a smaller dip is required to create a buying opportunity in our opinion.

USG Corporation (NYSE: USG) also reported earnings this week. Unlike RSG, it was a disappointing quarter. Weak wallboard pricing and paper costs (paper is an input for USG) helped to cause an $0.08 miss for the second quarter. Analysts expected $0.52 per share, USG delivered just $0.44.

Our reference guru Warren Buffett has remained very patient with USG despite expressing his disappointment, and so have we. However, given the company’s repeat underwhelming performance, we are exploring replacements. We are currently evaluating a large number of stocks and will have new recommendations in the next few weeks.

In the meantime, we have cut the suggested buy-up-to price to $27 and lowered USG to a “hold.”

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