Two “Holds” Become “Buys”

Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID) took a tumble after reporting disappointing second-quarter earnings. For the first time since February 2016, the stock fell in reaction to earnings.

The company booked revenues of $314.9 million during the quarter, slightly below The Street’s expectation for $315.7 million. The roughly $315 million figure represents a revenue growth of 5 percent on a year-over-year basis. However, the earnings-per-share (EPS) miss was larger—$1.43 versus $1.51—signifying small margins than expected, due to higher expenses. The company blames the increase on projected payment of target bonuses for employees and investments in technology and marketing efforts. Net income fell 13 percent compared to a year ago, but due to the lower share count, the EPS decline is less than 6 percent.

There were some things to like, however.

During the second quarter, Sotheby’s saw an increase in high-priced lots. The number of works priced at seven figures or more rose 5 percent during the first half of the year, and the average hammer price for these works jumped 17 percent. Thus the demand for high-end art is robust, but the lesser works seem to require more much cheaper prices to sell. In dollar terms the value of private transactions grew by 34 percent in the first half of 2017 compared to 2016’s first six months. The U.S. market also rebounded strongly, increasing 26 percent in the first half of the year and replacing Asia as the largest purchasing region (in dollar terms).

After a string of expectation-beating quarters, Sotheby’s essentially raised the bar, and the mild disappointment in the second quarter was enough to send the stock back to about $50 a share. Indeed, as the share price rallied into the mid- and then high $50s, we kept our suggested buy-up-to price at $52 because it was clear expectations were climbing and it might be difficult to satisfy investors.

Despite the price setback, it looks like the high-end art market remains on good footing, and the organizational-wide reforms implemented by CEO Tad Smith continues to show positive impact. The negative reaction to the mixed quarter can also be partly attributed to a difficult benchmark; the second quarter of 2016 was fantastic.

With the price decline, BID is now a buy. We keep our suggested buy-up-to price at $52.

Theravance Biopharma’s (Nasdaq: TBPH) had a very rough July and early August. The stock price peaked in June at about $42 a share. It has dropped below $30 as of Friday’s close.

Like in the case of Sotheby’s, we did not recommend our readers chase the rally. We kept the suggested buy-up-to price for TBPH at $32 because with small biotech companies in the late stages of clinical trials and filing for FDA approval, the price can move dramatically for no apparent reason. Such stocks tend to attract speculators who bet on the price rising as the company plans to release clinical data or some other milestone (such as FDA approval). Once the positive data came out, the speculators will sell their holdings because they think the upside catalyst is now behind the company, and they will speculate on the next stock.

The company still and has other drug candidates in the pipeline. We are keeping the suggested “buy-up-to” price at $32.

Stock Talk

Scott Chan

Scott Chan

Theravance released lowered than expected revenue and earnings figures for the June quarter, leading to a 20% plunge in the stock. However, we see this as a buying opportunity. Besides revefenacin that we’ve discussed in recent updates, Theravance has an 85% interest in the royalty payments from GlaxoSmithKline to Innoviva for a closed triple combo treatment for COPD that should win approval later this year. Theravance also has gotten good clinical results from velusetrag and TD-1473, two early-stage products in the pipeline.

We recommended not chasing the rally as the share price spiked to the $40 level, but now that it’s back down into the $20s, we view the decline as a price reset and a chance to initiate a position.

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