Portfolio Update: Rubber, Meet Road

Our BTP holdings run the gamut, from large-cap media stars to little-known small caps. Some of these stocks get a lot of press. Some are ignored. The common denominator: their fundamentals are sound.

Earnings season is when the rubber meets the road. The latest results are from two mega-cap brand names in our portfolio. I liked what I saw.

  • Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOG)

Wall Street reacted negatively to Alphabet’s fourth-quarter 2017 operating results. The Google parent missed on earnings. But a deeper examination shows that Alphabet generally posted a good quarter. The herd is wrong.

Alphabet’s fourth-quarter sales increased 24% percent to $32.3 billion, exceeding the estimate of $31.9 billion. Earnings came in at $6.8 billion, or earnings per share (EPS) of $9.70, missing estimates of $7 billion, or EPS of $10.

The earnings figure excludes a $9.9 billion tax charge. Alphabet reported one-time expenses due to the new U.S. tax bill.

Robust advertising sales growth was offset by greater spending. Google is heavily marketing its cloud services, YouTube video app, and consumer gadgets.

Expenses came in at $24.7 billion in the fourth quarter, a 27% increase from the same period a year ago. I like to see a tech firm invest in organic growth. Alphabet’s strategic bets will reap rewards.

Steady demand for advertising on mobile apps continues to fuel Google’s core ad business. This cash is being put to good use.

Google purchased ads during big sports events. The firm is keen to promote its new Pixel 2 smartphone and YouTube television service. It cut prices on hardware to get online search and streaming into consumer homes. It ramped up staff.

Google devoted more revenue to ensure its search engine is the default option on products and services, such as the Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) iPhone and Mozilla’s Firefox browser.

Alphabet’s investment in cloud computing is bearing fruit. The segment generated more than $1 billion in revenue in the quarter.

Alphabet announced that board member John Hennessy will replace Eric Schmidt. The latter is transitioning from Alphabet’s executive chairman to technical advisor. Hennessy is a former Stanford president. He’s a prudent choice to lead the company.

Alphabet’s shares are pricey. The stock remains a hold. Buy GOOG on dips below $1,050.

  • Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT)

Microsoft posted second-quarter fiscal 2018 revenues of $28.9 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%.

Growth drivers were enterprise products and cloud computing. Gross margin for the quarter was 62%, flat compared to the same year-ago quarter. Operating income was $8.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year.

Microsoft took a $13.8 billion charge on repatriation of foreign income. That resulted in a net loss of $6.3 billion, for a loss per share of 82 cents. Excluding that charge, earnings would have been up 20% to $7.5 billion.

Microsoft paid $26.2 billion in June for LinkedIn. Most analysts said it was foolhardy. I beg to differ.

This quarter marked the third one in which Microsoft included LinkedIn’s revenue. The social network contributed $1.3 billion to the top line. Microsoft Office is increasingly integrated with LinkedIn. This will reap rewards down the road.

Microsoft launched its new Xbox One X console during the quarter. It boosted overall gaming revenue by 8%. Microsoft’s Office 365 subscription model is working, too. Office consumer and cloud revenue increased 12% year-over-year.

The big takeaway: Server and cloud services revenue grew 18% year-over-year. Revenue from the Azure cloud computing network soared 98%. Microsoft is counting on the cloud for outsized growth. As it should.

Microsoft’s stock has enjoyed a nice run; it remains a hold. Buy MSFT on dips below $75.

Other News

  • Microvision (NSDQ: MVIS)

MVIS stock has been volatile. It’s a small tech stock (market cap: $99.8 million). As such, we should expect gyrations in share price. Customers deferring orders can temporarily clobber shares. But these orders remain in the pipeline. They eventually get shipped. In recent days, MVIS shares have rebounded as orders are filled.

Microvision remains a leader in miniature projection. These so-called pico projectors enjoy booming demand. The pico projector market is expected to reach $3.44 billion by 2022, up from $1.28 billion in 2015.

MVIS’ projected earnings growth is robust. The average expectation is that MVIS will rack up year-over-year earnings growth of 30% in the current quarter, 12.50% next quarter, 9.40% in the current year, and 6.90% next year. The projected five-year earnings growth for MVIS on an annualized basis is 17.50%.

Management expects revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 in the range of $2.4 million to $2.7 million and full year 2017 revenue in the range of $10.7 million to $11.0 million.

MVIS is a buy up to $3.75.

  • NVIDIA (NSDQ: NVDA)

The chipmaker is associated in the popular mind with video games. It’s involved in so much more. NVIDIA is setting its sights on the self-driving car market. By 2035, as much as 15% of all trucks sold are expected to be self-driving.

NVIDIA’s focus is driverless trucks. The firm recently teamed up with Paccar (NSDQ: PCAR), which makes Peterbilt, DAF and Kenworth big rigs. Prototypes are on the road.

The U.S. Transportation Department is investing $4 billion in autonomous vehicle research. The White House may alter that figure. But the trend is in place. Self-driving trucks are the future. They’re safer. They’re cheaper. They’re more efficient.

NVIDIA is targeting other self-driving technologies. The company is partnering with vehicle supplier Bosch (OTC: BSWQY) to make a computer system for mass-market autonomous cars.

NVIDIA has other self-driving car partnerships in place. Partners include Tesla (NSDQ: TSLA), Audi (OTC: AUDVF), and Daimler (NYSE: DDAIF).

NVIDIA should rack up five-year earnings growth of 15%, on an annualized basis. That’s a conservative estimate.

NVIDIA is a buy up to $250.

John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.

 

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