Relief of Tension… For Now

Even with the decline on Friday, the S&P 500 finished the week in the green and recovered last week’s lost ground as trade-war fears moderated. Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader, gave a speech about lowering tariffs on auto imports and tightening regulations surrounding intellectual property as part of an effort to open up its economy to the world. The White House responded positively to the speech, which raised investor hopes that the U.S. and China could make some concrete negotiation progress.

Despite Xi’s conciliatory tone, he didn’t really make any new concessions. He merely repeated promises he had made before (for example, early 2017 in Davos) and gave no concrete details. However, the fact that the two sides have ratcheted down tensions—for now—is a relief to a market worried about the escalation last week.

Neither the U.S. nor China wants a trade war. We expect some type of deal eventually, but tough negotiations are ahead. Especially with an unorthodox president in charge, market sentiment could change on a dime even if the underlying situation remains little changed. We expect market volatility to continue but provided the economy remains solid, the market should hold up.

Stock Update

Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID) announced this week that it will partially bring back the buyer premium—what the buyer pays on top of the winning bid—for online-only auctions. The company had eliminated this fee only last November in an effort to attract new buyers. Now, Sotheby’s will not automatically waive the premium, and its staff will decide whether or not to apply the fee.

Online-only sales are a small part of Sotheby’s business, about 1.6% of revenues, and the average sales price is $10,000, but it’s growing. Last year, more than half of online bidders were new customers and Sotheby’s more than doubled the number of online-only auctions to 36. Time will tell if the policy reversal affects this segment’s growth.

Sotheby’s will also be conducting its first-ever auction in India (Mumbai), signaling a serious foray into a new market. Interestingly, its main rival Christie’s declared last year that it would reduce its Indian operations due to weak sales and cancelled live auctions in Mumbai. Christie’s exit leaves an opening for Sotheby’s, but it brings up the question whether the Indian market is ripe for high-end art.

According to Sotheby’s, global sales attributable to Indian clients (in auctions held elsewhere) have nearly doubled over the past five years, combining for $250 million worth of sales over this period. The company hopes holding auctions in the country itself will bring out more buyers.

Credit Suisse reports that India has about 245,000 millionaires. It thinks by 2022 that number could rise by more than 50% to 372,000. While that growth projection is merely an estimate, what is undoubtable is that wealth in India is increasing. The large income disparity in the country means that most of the wealth is concentrated at a small percentage of folks at the top. Since Sotheby’s targets the affluent, fast wealth growth at the top suits its purpose well.

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