MLPs and the Winter of Discontent

In This Issue

The 2011-12 winter that never was has depressed US natural gas prices to record lows. This issue analyzes the extent to which this challenging business environment will affect long-haul pipelines, gathering and processing operations, storage facilities and upstream operators. We also review the first batch of quarterly earnings from our Portfolio holdings.

Here’s when our Portfolio recommendations will report their first quarter 2012 earnings. Those designated as “reported” are covered in this issue.

Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)–May 4 (confirmed)
DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM)–May 7 (estimated)
Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC)–May 2 (confirmed)
El Paso Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: EPB)–May 3 (confirmed)
Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD)–May 2 (confirmed)
Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP)–May 8 (confirmed)
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL)–April 26 (reported)
Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM)–May 3 (confirmed)
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP)–April 18 (reported)
Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–May 2 (confirmed)
Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE)–April 26 (reported)
Magellan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–May 2 (confirmed)
Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP)–May 8 (confirmed)
Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM)–April 26 (reported)
Penn Virginia Resource Partners LP (NYSE: PVR)–April 27 (reported)
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP)–May 8 (confirmed)
Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–May 4 (confirmed)
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (NYSE: SXL)-May 2 (confirmed)
Targa Resources Partners LP (NYSE: NGLS)-May 3 (confirmed)
Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP)-May 18 (confirmed)
Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE: VNR)-May 2 (confirmed)

The Stories


1.
Our near-term outlook for US natural gas prices remains bearish. We expect gas prices to remain depressed for at least the next few years, with any potential upside hinging on weather conditions. See Too Much Gas.

2. 
Depressed natural gas prices don’t necessarily mean that investors should count out master limited partnerships that own long-haul pipelines. See In It for the Long Haul.

3.
MLPs that own gathering systems in liquids-rich shale gas plays are best-positioned in the current environment. See Gathering Pipelines: Location, Location, Location.

4. Depressed natural gas prices and robust drilling activity in liquids-rich shale plays mean it’s boom time for MLPs that own processing assets. See Processing Profits.

5. MLPs that own natural gas storage facilities have suffered from the tightening spread between natural gas prices in the summer and winter. See Cold Storage: Depressed Natural Gas Prices and the Storage Industry.

6. The upstream MLPs in our model Portfolios shouldn’t be phased by ultra-low natural gas prices. See The Producers.

7.
Depressed natural gas prices spell trouble in coal country. See Coal Country.

8. Here’s our analysis of Navios Maritime Partners LP’s first-quarter results. See First-Quarter Earnings: Navios Maritime Partners LP.

The Stocks


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP
(NYSE: KMP)–Buy < 82 in Conservative Portfolio
Genesis Energy LP
(NYSE: GEL)–Buy < 30 in Conservative Portfolio
Energy Transfer Partners LP
(NYSE: ETP)–Buy < 50 in Growth Portfolio
Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–Buy < 30 in Conservative Portfolio
Buckeye Partners LP (NYSE: BPL)–Buy < 65 in Conservative Portfolio
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–Buy < 60 in Conservative Portfolio
Williams Partners LP (NYSE: WPZ)–Buy < 60 in How They Rate
Holly Energy Partners LP (NYSE: HEP)–Buy < 55 in How They Rate
Enbridge Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EEP)–Buy < 32 in How They Rate
Regency Energy Partners LP (NYSE: RGP)–Buy < 29 in Aggressive Portfolio
DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM)–Buy < 40 in Growth Portfolio
Eagle Rock Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EROC)–Buy < 12 in Growth Portfolio
Chesapeake Midstream Partners LP
(NYSE: CHKM)–Buy < 31 in How They Rate
Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD)–Buy < 45 in Conservative Portfolio
Targa Resources Partners LP
(NYSE: NGLS)–Buy < 35 in Growth Portfolio
Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE: NRGM)–Buy < 23 in Growth Portfolio
Niska Gas Storage Partners LLC (NYSE: NKA)–SELL in How They Rate
PAA Natural Gas Storage LP (NYSE: PNG)–SELL in How They Rate
Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE)–Buy < 40 in Aggressive Portfolio
Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–Buy < 32 in Aggressive Portfolio
Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP)–Buy < 26.50 in Aggressive Portfolio
Vanguard Natural Resources LLC (NYSE: VNR)–Buy < 30 in Aggressive Portfolio
Penn Virginia Resource Partners LP (NYSE: PVR)–Buy < 29 in Aggressive Portfolio
Alliance Holdings GP LP (NSDQ: AHGP)–Buy < 45 in How They Rate
Natural Resource Partners LP (NYSE: NRP)–Buy < 30 in How They Rate
Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM)–Buy < 20 in Aggressive Portfolio

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