Analysis

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  • March 14, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–Selling has resumed in the markets, and it looks like we’re in for another leg down. As I discussed last week, profit-taking is likely to persist for a while longer (see SRI, 7 March 2007, Tempting): I maintain the view,… Read More

  • February 28, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–Markets move in mysterious ways. Just last week I wrote that the near-total absence of bearish voices was reason for investors to be cautious. Those comments were made while Asian markets were making new highs, and I hoped to highlight the… Read More

  • February 21, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–A little more than a month ago, as the MSCI All-Country Asia ex-Japan Index (MSCI Asia Index) surpassed a previous high that had stood for 12 years, I noted it can be dangerous for investors to be sitting on positions that have achieved… Read More

  • February 15, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–Today marks one year since Silk Road Investor’s launch. Although I don’t plan to commemorate each year that goes by, having made it through the first indicates that you find something worthwhile here and therefore support the effort.Thank you. Read More

  • February 7, 2007

FALLS CHURCH, Va.--Colonized by the Portuguese in the 16th century, Macau was the first European settlement in the Far East. On 20 December 1999, Macau became the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People’s Republic of China, based on an agreement signed by China and Portugal on 13 April 1987. Read More

  • January 31, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–Sentiment in global markets remains basically unchanged: It’s a fairly bullish attitude built on expectations for a relatively smooth slowdown in the global economy and, consequently, solid performance for the financial markets. There’s also a secondary view, expressed here previously, that markets will… Read More

  • January 10, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–It can be dangerous for investors to be sitting on positions that have achieved all-time highs. And that’s what’s happening in Asia: The MSCI All Country Asia ex-Japan Index, the region’s benchmark, recently surpassed its previous record, established 12 years ago.Although… Read More

  • January 3, 2007

By Yiannis G. MostrousATHENS, Greece–2006 was a good year for the SRI Portfolio, which outperformed its benchmarks. Please note that this is a long-only Portfolio. I imposed this restriction in order to fairly compare performance against benchmarks, and all major market indexes are also long only. Read More

  • December 20, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousATHENS, Greece–“Thailand is also an economy I really like,” I wrote in mid-June, continuing: …but the political turmoil has been affecting the market negatively. It’s unfortunate that the economic advances in Thailand are being held hostage by the capriciousness of an elitist group… Read More

  • December 13, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–As things stand, world stock markets can stay stronger for longer, even after four rewarding years. Equity valuations remain at fair levels (although not as cheap as they were) and earnings continue to be strong. The global economy doesn’t look bad yet, but… Read More

  • November 29, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–In May 2002, I wrote that the US dollar would gradually lose value but that it would remain the major currency of the world, albeit from a lower valuation plateau. At the time, you needed less than USD0.90 to buy EUR1; a little… Read More

  • November 22, 2006

Editor’s Note: A weekly publication, SRI doesn’t take any breaks. That said, it seems to me that long holiday weekends like Thanksgiving and New Year#s offer opportunities for some thinking and reflecting, which I plan to do. Consequently, issues that fall during holiday weekends are a bit shorter than normal,… Read More

  • November 15, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–As 2006 draws to an end, I’ll gradually review the main themes that have been driving SRI’s investment decision-making this year. The majority of my recommendations are based on long-term themes enhanced and altered according to the opportunities presented by the markets. Special… Read More

  • November 8, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–Today I’m taking a quick look at the results reported so far by companies in the SRI Portfolio. Those recommendations not covered below have either been discussed in previous issues or have yet to report third quarter results. Singapore Telecommunications: most-recent… Read More

  • November 1, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousFALLS CHURCH, Va.–As I noted last week, earnings for US-based corporations continue to come in quite strong. What#s impressive about the positive news is that it’s happening even as US GDP growth registered one of its lowest readings (1.6 percent) since the first quarter of… Read More

  • October 25, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousMCLEAN, Va.–Initial results indicate that US corporate earnings haven’t fallen off: 30 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported, and the majority has beaten estimates (though excessive pessimism had led analysts to lower third quarter estimates). The current market rally now seems to be… Read More

  • October 18, 2006

MCLEAN, Va.--Shinzo Abe was elected Prime Minister of Japan on September 26; I had provided a brief background on Abe as his term as Junichiro Koizumi’s Chief Cabinet Secretary neared its end (see SRI, 16 August 2006, A Political Summer). Read More

  • September 27, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousMCLEAN, Va.–The prevailing view is that the US economy is slowing–taking its cue from the housing sector–and that the probability of a 2007 recession has risen significantly. Some say the likelihood is up to 40 percent. My view is a little more sanguine,… Read More

  • September 20, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousMCLEAN, Va.–It was raining last night in Bangkok, Thailand, as tanks rolled into the city and made their way to the Government House, putting a temporary end to the political turmoil that’s plagued Thailand since last April’s elections gave Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra a second… Read More

  • September 13, 2006

By Yiannis G. MostrousMCLEAN, Va.–A friend pointed out to me recently the existence of a Web site where active “condo traders” buy and sell this specific type of real estate. In disbelief– my na’vet’ wouldn’t allow me to think the situation had reached such levels–I immediately visited… Read More