Scooping Up MLP Bargains

It’s August, and the summer has been a cool one across the U.S. East and Midwest. Despite the heat wave in the West, there’s been less need for cooling nationwide than during last year’s record scorcher.

Natural gas still sits below $3/mmBTU, and pipeline stocks remain broadly out of favor.

So of course I’m here to discuss EQT GP Holdings (EQGP), representing gas driller EQT’s (EQT) general partnership interests in its EQT Midstream Partners (EQM).

As the holder of incentive distribution rights in EQM, EQGP gains disproportionally from the pipeline affiliate’s expansion. That expansion is tied closely to the drilling done by EQT, but also benefits from opportunities to ship other producers’ gas along EQM’s growing system south and west of the Marcellus shale.

EQT is set to become the largest gas driller in the U.S. once it closes its pending acquisition of Rice Energy (RICE). No one produces gas more cheaply and few drillers are better capitalized, so there’s a very high likelihood that EQT will be developing its enlarged leaseholds for years.

Historically, such development has built value on the midstream side of the business. Despite the protracted downturn in gas prices and energy equities, the price of EQM units has tripled since they came public five years ago. EQM still  yields 5.1% while growing its distribution 19% annually, an attractive combination I highlighted right after the Rice merger announcement.

EQGP is a leveraged play on EQM’s growth currently yielding 3.1%. The distribution is set to increase 40% in 2017 and 30-40% per year thereafter. At that rate, EQGP would be yielding 7.4% at the current unit price by the end of 2020. High compounded growth works its magic quickly.

Of course, we all know how little energy producer forecasts can be worth when they’re based on faulty industry assumptions. The key here is that the forecasts for EQGP are based on low gas prices that can’t go much lower for long if the U.S. is to maintain its energy consumption and export commitments. At these prices, EQM is generating 40% more cash flow than it needs to pay the distributions relied on by EQGP. So odds look good that either the price will rise or EQGP will have a 7% yield while still growing its distributions rapidly three years from now. I’m adding EQGP to the portfolio.

Andeavor Adapts   

You don’t need to wait to get a high yield in Andeavor Logistics (ANDX); the rebranded successor to Tesoro Logistics is already yielding 8.2% following the merger and restructuring transactions announced this week.

ANDX was merged with its sponsor’s other MLP, Western Refining Logistics, at a token premium for Western’s public unitholders, giving it a toehold in the Permian Basin and an operating footprint stretching from Alaska to Minnesota. At the same time, it bought out its incentive distribution rights obligations to the sponsor in exchange for additional units.

The net result is the aforementioned 8%-plus yield with reasonable leverage (below 4x debt/EBITDA by the end of the year) and modest distribution growth (6% annually).

It’s been a tough summer for all the pipeline master limited partnerships, including ANDX/TLLP. But refinery logistics is a steady business, and Andeavor participates in some very lucrative regional refining markets, including the U.S. Northwest and Southwest.

The 8% yield is ample compensation for the additional risk inherent in the MLP’s gathering and processing operations. Buy the dip. (Note that Tesoro Logistics was included in Income Millionaire’s relaunched portfolio in May, so this is a reiteration of a standing recommendation.)

Stock Talk

Derek Myers

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Hi Igor,

What are the “buy” up to recommendations?

Derek

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We’re not using buy limits here; if they’re rated buy it means they can be bought at the current price, and if that changes I’ll issue an alert immediately. I just haven’t found long-term buy limits to be all that useful in an age of instant updates.

Mark Drum

Mark Drum

Hi Igor
Our long term favorite MLPs have fallen about 10% on the past month . Could you comment on the what you believe are driving the declines of EPD, ETE, and MMP. Are the fundamentals of these historic “favorites” going south. How much of the decline is driven by the decline in oil , a probable Q4 rate increase by the Fed, and the ineffectiveness in Washington. What is your prognosis for these MLPs over the next 6-12 months.
Thanks so much
Mark

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I wish I had an original explanation, Mark, but I think it’s mostly the energy prices. Sector looks rangebound to me, which isn’t worst news long-term given the yield and the growth rate. I see limited downside from current levels, and big upside once energy prices lift, but you’ve read this before…

Loralie Trosper

Loralie Trosper

Igor, do you have any current recommendations for MLPs (individual or funds) which classify their distributions as qualified dividends or return of capital on a 1099 rather than K-1. Thanks.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

It’s not technically an MLP but if you’re interested in a midstream energy yield Williams (WMB) is a 1099 dividend payer, as is TransCanada (TRP). Beyond the energy space, I would look at portfolio recommendations NRZ and GLP.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
I have three mlps left over from previous recommendations in MLP profits,
namely EEP, BPL , and DCP
Do you have any thoughts on hold or sell?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Apologies for the delayed reply; I wanted to take some time to catch up on these partnerships. None of them made it into the IM portfolio, and I still don’t like them as much as the midstream mainstays that did. That said, I think all are OK to hold at current levels; all will look better at higher energy prices and I think the likelihood we get that lift keeps growing. That said, EEP is the only one that fully covered its most recent distribution; having taken its medicine with the cut earlier this year I think it’s my favorite of the three. But BPL and DCP didn’t miss covering theirs by that much, and both reiterated annual guidance. I think holding is the right move here even though it’s been painful to do so.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
can you explain how today (9/20) when oil prices go up by over 75 cents, midstream mlps go down??

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I don’t think there’s necessarily a correlation on a daily basis. MLPs were down last week in large part because of the additional supply from a weak IPO and a large private placement; they obviously did better yesterday. Many do benefit from higher oil prices but there’s lots of other noise in the daily movements as well.

Fred

Fred

Igor
I currently have positions in BX and ETE, both yielding 6.5%. For growth and yield, would you recommend selling the BX and buying ETP which now yields 13%? Currently, BX has been very sluggish for a long time but is a financial which represents diversity here and is a very strong company.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I wouldn’t trade BX for ETP, as I think the end game is for ETP to merge with ETE on terms favorable to ETE; if you’re looking to get more yield than BX (which I still like, obviously) perhaps consider NRZ from the portfolio.

pipeline

pipeline

Igor
CNNX is on your list of best buys, it has gone down since I bought it
Assume you still like it ?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes, I do; I think it will respond favorably to the higher natural gas prices I expect this winter

Mark Drum

Mark Drum

Hello Igor
I would like to ask you again for your insight and thoughts on the recent stock value performance of our top Midstream MLP picks – EDP, ETE, MMP as well as a couple of others SEP and TRP. At the end of August I posted a request on Stock Talk that our favorite MLPs had dropped 10% in 30 days and asked for your thoughts and insights. Your response indicated range bound trading with limited downside and upside as oil prices improved. Since then WTI has improved from 48 to almost 52 , and with the exception of MMP, unit performance of the others in the Midstream space has been flat to down with a significant downturn on the past week or so ( approx -5%). What are your thoughts regarding this inability to recover and the sharp downturn over the last week or so. Are the fundamentals for the Midstream space going south due to expected interest rate moves , slowest production estimates going forward, or concerns regarding possible changes in their taxation status under possible tax reform or something else altogether. As always i look forward to you insights and thoughts.
Thanks
Mark

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Mark,

I addressed the factors weighing on the MLP space in recent weeks here:
https://www.investingdaily.com/income-millionaire/articles/39950/mlps-and-energy-play-opposites

Best regards,
Ari

Mark Drum

Mark Drum

Hi Ari
I have some positions that originated in the MLP Profits days prior to it’s sudden demise. With Igor’s departure is there anyone at Investing Daily that I can look to for periodic updates and alerts.
The MLP I am most concerned with are EDP, ETE, ETP, MMP, TRP, SEP, and KMI.
Thank you
Mark

Ari Charney

Ari Charney

Hi Mark,

EPD, ETE, and TRP are all current holdings in the Income Millionaire Portfolio, so I would certainly provide periodic updates on those securities.

Meanwhile, SEP and MMP are in Utility Forecaster’s Income Portfolio, while ETP and KMI are tracked as part of that service’s coverage universe:
https://www.investingdaily.com/utility-forecaster

Though SEP and MMP would be strong candidates for Income Millionaire’s portfolio, I would prefer not to have too much overlap between the two services.

Best regards,
Ari

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