November Options Expiration Update

Normally, I’d wait until the third week of November to issue the monthly options update. But just like last month, I am closing out two of our short put positions early due to extreme stock market volatility. This time, my specific concern is that the outcome of next week’s midterm elections could trigger another wave of selling if Wall Street doesn’t like the result.

Of the three options expiring, two of them are presently out-of-the-money which means we can buy them back for pennies on the dollar while also eliminating the possibility of having them put to us if they take a downward turn over the next two weeks.

For those reasons, I am closing out our short put options positions in Macy’s and American Electric Power today.

In July, we sold a put on Macy’s (NYSE: M) at a $35 strike (Symbol: M181116P00035000) for a minimum price of $3. At yesterday’s close, we could buy that same option for less than 50 cents for a better than six-fold return on investment. 

[Editor’s note: the price cited above is incorrect; however, we still recommend closing out this position by the end of this week albeit at a lower ROI than originally stated. We apologize for the error]

During the third week of August, we sold a put on American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP) with a strike price of $70 (Symbol: AEP181116P00070000) at a limit price of $1.50. That same option could be bought at yesterday’s close for 35 cents, or less one-fourth what we sold it for.

As for our third position expiring in November, Western Union (NYSE: WU) is scheduled to release earnings after the market closes tomorrow (November 1). We sold that put at a $19 strike (Symbol: WU181116P00019000) for 80 cents, and yesterday the stock closed at $17.87 so we presently have a loss on it and are at risk of having the stock to put to us if it does not rise above $19 by expiration.

I am not yet closing out that position and will issue an update on WU this Friday after evaluating its Q3 results.

Like last time, if you decide to ignore this alert and hold on to your M and AEP put options through this month’s options expiration date (November 16), I suggest you keep a very close on the stock market and have an exit strategy in place in case things start to get ugly.

Stock Talk

Mark F

Mark F

I see a price of 1.75 to buy back the M option. Where do you see $.50?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Looking through my notes from yesterday, it appears my data feed was using prices for the weekly options expiring this week instead of the monthly options expiring in two weeks, so that price is incorrect. However, I still recommend closing out the Macy’s position this week for the reasons cited above, albeit at a lower ROI than what was stated in the alert. I apologize for the error.

Victor

Victor

M closed for 1.80. Thanks Jim

Daniel Long

Daniel Long

M
STO 7/13 3.08
BTC 10/31 1.93
Profit 37%

AEP
STO Aug 21 1.48
BTC Oct 31 0.35
Profit 1.13 = 76%
Thanks, Jim
DL

ETKTRIDE

ETKTRIDE

M – BTC 10/31 $2.08

Glenn

Glenn

M BTC 35P for $1.77.
AEP BTC half of holding for $.30. I would be willing to own shares if assigned on the other half.

Stanley

Stanley

M closed for 1.80 @ Fidelity
Nice profits for both M and AEP
Thanks

Mark F

Mark F

BTC M for 1.65. Good call, Jim.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Despite reporting a very good Q3 and raising guidance for the remainder of the year (https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-stock-is-sliding-in-spite-of-strong-earnings-and-guidance-1542228955?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo), Macy’s fell 7% today to below our $35 strike price. This is why we closed the Macy’s short put position while we had the chance to do it on the cheap two weeks ago. I can only surmise that the “whisper number” for Macy’s earnings was considerably higher than the beat it delivered. Regardless, we are in a very flukey market at the moment so I will continue to take a defensive posture towards locking in gains until it becomes evident that good results are rewarded appropriately.

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account